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Jon Mosser
@jonmosser.com

The #HPV #vaccine 💉 has been around for almost two decades. Now, we're starting to see the tremendous impact on cervical #cancer we'd all hoped for. Complements previous UK analysis in @thelancet.bsky.social estimating a 97% reduction in cervical cancer for cohorts offered HPV vaccine @ 12–13y.

thelancet.comThe effects of the national HPV vaccination programme in England, UK, on cervical cancer and grade 3 cervical intraepithelial neoplasia incidence: a register-based observational studyWe observed a substantial reduction in cervical cancer and incidence of CIN3 in young women after the introduction of the HPV immunisation programme in England, especially in individuals who were offe...
JAMA@jama.com

Cervical cancer mortality in US women younger than 25 years significantly declined between 2016 and 2021, likely due to the widespread adoption of HPV vaccination. ja.ma/4i9ghPC

Jon Mosser
@jonmosser.com

The JAMA article is a relatively simple ecological analysis of time series data (and rare events, too) - can't prove causality. But the rapid acceleration in decline of cervical cancer mortality - & timing in relation to #hpv #vaccine intro - is highly suggestive. #pedsIDsky #pedsky #IDsky

Jon Mosser
@jonmosser.com

Thanks! That article has a great overview of the history as well for anyone unfamiliar: #HPV #vaccines were licensed based on effectiveness against HPV infection and precancerous lesions (CIN) because the lag time between infection and cancer is so long. Some argued that this wasn't sufficient.

Jon Mosser
@jonmosser.com

And here's the figure that shows data from three linkage studies looking at the incidence of #cervicalcancer by #vaccination status. For cohorts vaccinated early (i.e. prior to HPV infection) the reductions are really massive.

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