Post

Basically we're fucked

Yes. Alternatives welcome

What is your estimation?

Important disclaimer. See @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social tool for how much impact different datapoints have on the outcome of the extrapolation. bsky.app/profile/mike...

The next couple of years will be an important indicator.

I mean, is there any reason why the curve should flatten out fast, it's not like we actually reduce CO2 efficient enough. So yea,.. reaching 3 ° is kind of likely.

"The blue line shows a quadratic fit to the data, which is statistically significant" G.Foster, 2013 The blue line was in fact non-physical (IPCC knew it and post-2012 data confirmed it). At least, what about checking IPCC discourse?

It depends on the actual rate of warming. Here is a non-linear extrapolation of the 30-year trend up to 2°C

this is also data that doesn't include burning forests for farmland, accidental or intentional fire starting, wars like Ukraine, 9 billion people and natural disasters like Valencia releasing huge amounts of pollution into enviro. 2c by 2039? please. much much sooner.

Faster than expected.

Without the Trumpfactor al ready outpacing IPCC