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🌍🌡📈 "Global warming reached an estimated 1.45°C in October 2024. If the 15-year warming trend leading up to then continued, global warming would reach 2°C by August 2039" The trend line reaches above IPCC projections. @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social ERA5 temp data relative to 1850-1900.

That 0.55°C of warming over 15 years indicates a global warming rate of about 0.36 °C per decade. That is on the high end of accelerated warming we predicted from record high GHG emissions and decreasing aerosols. We might have underestimated this!

It all depends on the actual rate of warming. Here is a non-linear extrapolation of the 30-year trend up to 2°C. In this scenario ΔT +2.0°C happens 4 years before the 15-year linear warming trend extrapolation

"If the 15-year warming trend leading up to then continued [non-linearly!], global warming would reach 3°C by December 2045" I don't regard this as a likely scenario. But not as an impossible scenario either..