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La Niña hasn't happened (yet?), greenhouse gases keep increasing, and the 11-year solar cycle is reaching its max. Our planet is now warming faster than ever before, as far as we can determine. The past 18 months were all warmer than before 2023. What will the next 18 bring?

What data are you using to support your preliminary Dec. 2024 surface mean air temperature anomaly prediction?

I shouldn't have added that, as it's too uncertain and not the point.

I am a lot more convinced we will be under +1.60°C for the entire 2024 than not in ERA5. To close at +1.6 December will have to be a little bit over +1.70°C which I doubt would be the case.

I made an informal bet with @climatecasino.net I took the >1.6°C Maybe I'll beat the house on this one?

There must be some good (although sad) opportunities to make money in the betting market with climate change given the amount of denial. Although i bet most of them wouldn't put their money where their mouth is.

Hehe! No, this is not a serious bet! @climatecasino.net has had this longstanding game with his followers - with completely fake money. Like to bet for example, whether the yearly gain in CO2 on Mauna Loa is => 3.80 or <3.80 ppm. The catch is that he's very clever