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🌍🌡️📈 I think it's 'more likely than not' that 2024 will end up crossing +1.60°C. The average of the past 365 days is +1.61°C and there is no sign of significant cooling in the next weeks.

I am a lot more convinced we will be under +1.60°C for the entire 2024 than not in ERA5. To close at +1.6 December will have to be a little bit over +1.70°C which I doubt would be the case.