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Leon Simons
@leonsimons.com

It's been quite something to see certain 'media favorite scientists' wanting to die on the hill of "no acceleration and "the truth is bad enough" Everyone who understands basic physics understands that (more than!) doubling Earth's Energy Imbalance will double the rate of global warming.

Dr. Aaron Thierry@thierryaaron.bsky.social

"[We] identify a statistically significant doubling of the global warming rate during 2011–2025 (0.40 °C per dec) compared to 1971–2025 (0.20 °C per dec)... The ensemble mean of 26 #climate models fails to capture the observed doubling of the warming rate, simulating a rate of only 0.29 °C per dec"

nature.comA recent doubling of global warming rate signals a 1.5 °C breach by 2028 - npj Climate and Atmospheric Sciencenpj Climate and Atmospheric Science - A recent doubling of global warming rate signals a 1.5 °C breach by 2028

27 reposts67 likes

Leon Simons
@leonsimons.com

The vast majority of global heat accumulation (~90%) is directed to increasing the temperature of the oceans. Ocean water has a very high heat capacity (~4 kJ/kg*°C) and it takes some time for a forcing, feedback, imbalance, and temperature increase to surface above natural variability.

Hugo
@nonviolence.bsky.social

Did EEI merely double or triple? Did +°C/decade double or ... triple? Related: Is CO2 growth slowing down or is CO2 growth actually growing? When the human population and eating animals grows while primary production declines due to sphere limits - we face the exponential and irreversible changes.

Hugo@nonviolence.bsky.social

2018: 1.07°C El Niño 2019: 1.20°C El Niño 2020: 1.22°C La Niña 2021: 1.07°C La Niña 2022: 1.11°C La Niña 2023: 1.43°C El Niño 2024: 1.54°C El Niño-La Niña 2025: 1.44°C La Niña 2026: 1.50°C El Niño 2027: 1.75°C El Niño ... 2030: ? #SilenceOfTheLambs

Richard Delevan
@richard.wickedproblems.earth

Gonna be the funniest thing when MAGA/Euro fash pivot super hard, say that of course it's warming too fast and that's why we're doing geoengineering. "Oh it might cause famine in Asia and Africa? Lol don't threaten me with a good time"

Climate News
@climatenews.bsky.social

It will likely be the inverse. India is most likely to deploy local geoengineering between 2028 and 2035 as more and more of the Indian subcontinent reaches wet bulb heat wave temperatures that could easily threaten 100 million+ deaths in India by then.

Richard Delevan
@richard.wickedproblems.earth

Oh I didn't say they'd be right. But fucking with the monsoons will seem like a co-benefit, and depending on latitude of release you could get a real fun competition going. www.wired.com/story/they-w...

wired.comThey War-Gamed Dimming the Sun. It Went Even Worse Than You ThinkSolar geoengineering could buy humanity time against climate change—or trigger a dangerous new arms race. A first-of-its-kind simulation offered a glimpse of what happens when geopolitics takes the wh...