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If you think in system terms, particularly after tuning up your intuition to hear emergence, it seems probable. bsky.app/profile/conw...

Being out of DC from time to time — in Scranton area, the south, on vacation — what strikes me hard is how average people with their busy lives are mostly not paying attention to the generational damage being done to the US.

In some cases it’s head-in-the-sand views or magical thinking. But in my expc people are busy and politics feels far away and and distasteful and no one wants to confront bad news. But Beutler is right: a lot of bad things and risk have piled up. There are many ways for it to go REALLY sideways.

I am crossing every finger to hope bad things don’t happen, and talking about it to let people know what’s happening. We also need to plan out a rebuilding path. But it feels to me like the majority of the country is in denial. I felt that way in early Jan 2025. Let’s hope for the best