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It was wrong to view the shifts to Trump in 2024 as an emerging new coalition (as I've written a lot) so it is wrong to suggest the coalition has since dissipated. The actual emergent "coalition" since 2016 is distance from the political establishment that leads to yoyo-ing electoral preferences.

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I would argue that the yo-yoing was happening for longer - see HW Bush to Clinton to W Bush to Obama to Trump to Biden back to Trump. This country isn't sure of anything other than being manic.

This may be impossible to answer until 2028, but what do you think happens to this coalition after Trump exits the stage? My fear is that it's succeeded too well for the GOP to give up, and MAGA essentially is the Republican party for the foreseeable future.

I think even this is an overinterpretation. Seems like a combo of: • Trump celebrity turnout factor in POTUS cycles • Consequent downcycles in off years leads to *appearance* of yoyo'ing electorate • Trump accelerating GOP base radicalization • Persistent COVID derangement • Stove-touching syndrome

Philip in your opinion as professional politics understander, is it bad that the disposition of political power in the US is decided by about 10 million people who have no idea how things work nor any interest in learning?

Right wing propaganda, unlimited PAC money, the takeover of the judiciary, exploitation of the internet by bad actors, the dumbing down of the population by bad policies, restricting access to the vote, single-issue voters…