Philip Bump

Philip Bump

@pbump.com

Hearst data editor and columnist Formerly: Washington Post Book: "The Aftermath: The Last Days of the Baby Boom and the Future of Power in America" Newsletter: www.ctinsider.com/newsletters/data/ Email: hello@pbump.com Signal: pbump.11

175.3K followers346 following16.3K posts

Yes, the Arabic people, famously bad at math. thats-racist-dot-gif

The Bulwark@thebulwark.com

RFK: "There's five hundred million Arabs in the world. And yet they don't produce science. They don't win the Nobel Prize. They don't win the Fields Prize. They don't win the Wolf Prize. They don't produce literature."

The Knicks won their first NBA championship in a half century and now they’re just never gonna win another game again.

“prediction market”

Kate Starbird@katestarbird.bsky.social

The Brazil election story today is already wild. Alleged efforts by some local mayors to stymie public transportation to suppress votes. Extended voting hours. Now vote is coming in, Bolsonaro with a slim lead, and yet the Polymarket has totally flipped in the last few hours towards Lula:

Thank you to the candidate I’m not voting for for reminding me that early voting began this weekend so I could go and vote for their opponent. Getting out the vote!

Even if it isn’t always effective, it’s very satisfying to vote against people who suck.

The rally was on Oct. 12.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Trump on Husted: "He went up 14 points or something. That was when I said the A-word. I looked at his body."

“also please do not google ‘working with cia in cuba history’”

Eric Levai@ericlevai.bsky.social

Did he think this was a private message or something?

Philip Bump reposted

JUST POSTED: A Russian energy giant has secretly moved to acquire a position in a massive Alaska gas project. Its part of talks between Witkoff/Kushner & Putin. But CEO of US company resigns after learning of Russian money in the project. A wowzer of a story. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/23/u...

nytimes.comIn U.S. Gas Talks With Kremlin, Hidden Financing for Alaska Project EmergesInterviews and documents show a Russian energy giant secretly funded a U.S. firm. The deal has been discussed in talks to end the war in Ukraine.

It's obviously dumb to apply how-to-win-elections logic to non-candidates who are reacting out of moral outrage. But standing by this position is essential because if Matt acknowledges that his ability to predict what makes candidates successful is wrong, it kneecaps his entire approach.

Jake Grumbach@jakemgrumbach.bsky.social

A helpfully clear exchange here Hasan: "So your argument is that [Minnesota ICE protesters] should stay at home because immigration is a salient issue for Donald Trump. Opposing ICE is only going to help Trump. Wait until we win the election in 2028." Yglesias: "Yes that is what I would have said"

If your argument is eternally "do what voters want," you have to also argue that what voters want is knowable and immutable. If it isn't, then doing what they want can't work, and then you're in the realm of acting on belief, which he wants to avoid.

There's a scenario in which the Supreme Court gets this case in December and three justices involved in Bush v. Gore on behalf of Bush will be asked whether confusion is grounds to reject election results.

Taniel@taniel.bsky.social

The Trump administration is preemptively suing to block Alaska from certifying a Mary Peltola victory, should she win. Their argument is that the double Dan Sullivan thing is confusing voters. www.reuters.com/world/trump-...

Philip Bump reposted

No, Freedom Summer volunteers didn't take selfies or post tweets -- because that technology hadn't been invented yet. But when they were getting trained in Ohio before going down, they were *all over* the media of their day. Here's a paragraph on it (since cut from my book for space constraints)

Joel S.@joelhs.bsky.social

"The Jews who went to Mississippi didn't take selfies and post tweets." Okay, but honestly, if tweets had been a thing in 1961, many of them probably would have done.

Basically the argument I was making yesterday, writing about … uh … Abdul El-Sayed.

ctinsider.comA Muslim candidate's exchange exposes an old fight over who belongsThe exchange involving Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed speaks volumes about immigration, religion and American identity.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

El-Sayed: "People like Vance think America is too small for some of us. I think America is big enough. America has been big enough include people whose families came, were here before anybody else showed up, or who were brought here despite themselves. His view of America is small -- small like him"

Even if this were viable as a concept (that there's an afterlife; that it allows conversations with others; that enslavers are going the same place as you), who cares? Oh, are you mad at me, Ben Franklin? Tough shit.

Philip Bump reposted

The exchange between El-Sayed and "Tommy" reinforced for me how much of this political moment centers on the tension between the idea of a pluralistic democracy where power is shared and the vision of a country centrally if not exclusively for white Christians. Gift link:

ctinsider.comA Muslim candidate's exchange exposes an old fight over who belongsThe exchange involving Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed speaks volumes about immigration, religion and American identity.

The exchange between El-Sayed and "Tommy" reinforced for me how much of this political moment centers on the tension between the idea of a pluralistic democracy where power is shared and the vision of a country centrally if not exclusively for white Christians. Gift link:

ctinsider.comA Muslim candidate's exchange exposes an old fight over who belongsThe exchange involving Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed speaks volumes about immigration, religion and American identity.

True to form, I dug up a lot of numbers for this, including a look at how many generations back different ethnic groups tend to extend into American history, both recently and in the 1970s. But more to the point, I used new PRRI polling to make the argument directly.

Philip Bump reposted

My brain cannot process this level of corruption. She was being paid $50 million to engineer a pardon from Trump *while working at the Justice Department* as a "Special Government Employee." And it worked. He got the pardon, and she got the money. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/20/u...

nytimes.comA Billionaire Wanted a Trump Pardon. His Family Gave Alina Habba a $50 Million Deal. (Gift Article)Julio Herrera Velutini, a prominent Venezuelan, was seeking clemency. He got it not long after his daughter gave Ms. Habba, a lawyer close to President Trump, an extraordinarily lucrative job.

Remember how much time we spent in his first term hearing about how he would never call a country a "shithole" and how The Post was fake news?

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Q: If there is a problem with Ilhan Omar's age, could she be deported? TRUMP: She could be. She could also go to jail. I think she's a sick, very dishonest person who hates our country. She comes from a country that is essentially not even a country. Somalia. It's a real shit house.

Philip Bump reposted

Philip Bump reposted

Big sighs of relief over at Fox HQ that they don’t have to gin up a “caravan” this year.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Ro Khanna and Brian Kilmeade have an extended argument on Fox & Friends over the role wealth inequality is playing in the French riots

Philip Bump reposted

your elementary school child will never remember when his weekly in-school music lesson is but he will be able to tell you precisely how many hours it is until his class has wear-pajamas-to-school day in 18 weeks

This is functionally equivalent to the CBS exec who hollered at the reporter about how much better she knew Mideast politics.

The number of shitty analyses that depend on "polls aren't picking up X!!!!!" arguments is itself uncountable.

The dynamic is that anecdotalists were very mad when polling averages revealed that anecdotes were subpar predictors for election results and then they were very happy when 2016 offered a reminder to everyone that polls themselves were subject to errors and so maybe anecdotes were just as good?