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The district she is running for was basically split Trump-Harris, so this is the conventional wisdom play. It is also a misread of the 2026 electorate and exactly what her incumbent opponent is also saying.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Cait Conley, the Democrat who is running against Mike Lawler, says "right now what I see out of Washington is corruption on both sides, extremism on both sides"

Luckily for her, Conley’s opponent also knows that he needs to generate enthusiasm among Republicans, so he’s doing things like this.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Mike Lawler on why he's speaking at "Trumpapalooza" when Trump's popularity is at an all time low: "It's a function of doing the job"

Oh, I’ll also note that Lawler allies are running ads comparing her to AOC and Mamdani, which suggests that they have polls showing AOC and Mamdani aren’t very popular in-district — which may also be why she takes this position. But, still: misread of the electorate.

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That said, I guarantee you that Trump isn’t *more* popular than Mamdani in NY-17 and it seems pretty easy to take a “she is in the same party as Mamdani” attack and turn it into a “he literally holds rallies with Trump” response.

It comes down to candidate quality and courage in the end. Democratic candidates have relied too heavily on consultants like Carville in the past whose perspective is stuck in the 20th century. Piker has a huge constituency like Rogan. He’s hated by politicians & the media, base voters love him.

Yeah, NY-17 resident here who supported one of Cait’s opponents. You’re right that she’s misreading discomfort with the DSA wing of the party for centrist, both-sides gibberish. We want strident Democrats who will take the fight to T and push back on left-wing extremism too.

not trying to start arguments here but this is a bit of a wild read to me as the people i've seen pointed to as examples of left wing "extremists" would be considered fairly run of the mill left leaning politicians in many other countries the difference in overton windows between countries are fun

I’m in this district too. I can believe that AOC and Mamdani are not as popular but whatever discomfort there is here with them pales in in comparison to how much Trump is loathed. I like AOC and Z but I don’t care what Conley does because I am ready to crawl on broken glass to vote against Lawler.

I often wonder how much the messaging in this race is shaped to appeal to the large ultra-orthodox population, who constitute a major voting bloc and whose politics tend toward an atypical blend of left/right planks. It's not unique to this district, but certainly unusual nationally.

well…. her district elected a republican 2 years ago, however slimly.. that gives a fairly good read of how popular AOC affiliation would be in her election.

Also the volume of PAC advertising against Conley is a strong indicator that Republicans see this as a seat they can hold against a weak challenger. They’ve clearly identified NY-17 as one of their best bets.