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People really want Trump to be an economic disaster and sorry, it's just not playing out that way. There's no doubt his policies have reduced growth relative to an alternative baseline, but the US economy is in great shape for the near to medium term, even more so given everything he's thrown at it.

I'll take the other side of that prediction for medium term. You're predicting that macroeconomic data a year from now will indicate an economy in great shape, yes? I expect the negative impacts of the Iran war to be more apparent then, so I predict mediocre at best, not great. I guess we'll see.

Why would you expect the effects of the Iran War to increase?

Cause the SPR has about 3 weeks of drawdown left before they stop being able to do regular releases.

I'm not a petroleum expert but the diesel crack spread has hit a record number. I don't know what's driving that but I think the U.S. having to turn off the backup flow is going to cause some trouble.

ship transits are still really low, is that data inaccurate due to some other factor (i.e. transponders off and people blockade running?)

Yeah, best estimates from people like @roryjohnston.bsky.social suggest mid-single digit mm bpd are transiting consistently. That + pipeline work arounds mean supply is down significantly versus pre-crisis but much closer to baseline than zero.

or is it because the SPR drawdowns aren't that agressive?