Rory Johnston

Rory Johnston

@roryjohnston.bsky.social

oil market researcher founder of https://CommodityContext.com former bank economist markets, code, barbecue

40K followers318 following2.8K posts

Pinned

Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

🚨 NEW POST 🚨 ⛽️ 𝗗𝗶𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗹 𝗗𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗿 𝗭𝗼𝗻𝗲 💀 Wars have hobbled many of the world’s largest diesel exporters, pushing the price of the industrial workhorse fuel into the stratosphere in search of elusive demand destruction as gov'ts scramble www.commoditycontext.com/p/diesel-dan...

commoditycontext.comDiesel Danger ZoneWars have hobbled many of the world’s largest diesel exporters, pushing the price of the industrial workhorse fuel into the stratosphere in search of elusive demand destruction as governments scramble
Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Political risk premium returns as crude prices rise toward Iran War highs and buyers grab what they can before a feared re-escalation; Chinese imports have tentatively recovered alongside Gulf exports Summary below, link to full report in reply.

Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

Every week I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads, high-frequency inventories, refined products, and positioning data, as well as a taste of the themes I’ve been thinking about or following closely Subscribe and read: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw43w26

commoditycontext.comOil Context Weekly (W43)Political risk premium returns as crude prices rise toward Iran War highs and buyers grab what they can before a feared re-escalation; Chinese imports have tentatively recovered alongside Gulf exports
Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

Spoke with @warontherocks.bsky.social about Trump's Russian diesel deal. What it is, what it isn't, and how it fits into our historic crisis in middle distillates supply. warontherocks.com/episode/warc...

warontherocks.comBetrayal or Business? Unpacking Trump’s Diesel Deal with RussiaPresident Trump’s new diesel deal with President Putin has drawn swift criticism from lawmakers at home and allies abroad, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky calling...
Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📈📈📈 Brent futures hit $110 for 1st time since May and term structure strengthened amid rumours of damage to Saudi oil infrastructure and fears of escalation in both the US-Iran and Saudi-Houthi conflicts Summary below, full report in replies:

Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

Every week I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads, high-frequency inventories, refined products, and positioning data, as well as a taste of the themes I’ve been thinking about or following closely Subscribe and read: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw42w26

commoditycontext.comOil Context Weekly (W42)Brent futures hit $110 for 1st time since May and term structure strengthened amid rumours of damage to Saudi oil infrastructure and fears of escalation in both the US-Iran and Saudi-Houthi conflicts

Rory Johnston reposted

Michael Derby
@michaelsderby.bsky.social

Trump’s attempt to get Russian energy bailout? “‘I cannot overstate how much of a nothing burger this is,’ Rory Johnston, an oil market researcher and founder of CommodityContext.com.”

reuters.comTrump says Russia to supply diesel to US and global marketPresident Donald Trump ​said on Friday that Russia had agreed to immediately supply diesel to US and global markets in an effort to lower fuel prices ahead of ‌the US midterm elections, although analy...
Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude rises as most intense pace of Iranian shipping strikes of the war reverses previous recovery in oil flowing through the Strait, while the White House grows ever-more desperate on diesel. Summary below, full report in replies

Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

Every week I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads, high-frequency inventories, refined products, and positioning data, as well as a taste of the themes I’ve been thinking about or following closely Subscribe and read: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw41w26

commoditycontext.comOil Context Weekly (W41)Crude rises as most intense pace of Iranian shipping strikes of the war reverses previous recovery in oil flowing through the Strait, while the White House grows ever-more desperate on diesel
Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

Spoke with CBC this morning about the latest developments in the the Strait of Hormuz, the broader oil market, and what it means for you and your wallet at the pump. Watch:

Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices pulled back on the recent recovery in Middle Eastern oil flows despite growing fears of an escalation in hostilities, while governments return to energy security interventions once again Summary below, full report in reply.

Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

Every week, I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads, high-frequency inventories, refined products, and positioning data, as well as a taste of the themes I’ve been thinking about or following closely Subscribe and read: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw40w26

commoditycontext.comOil Context Weekly (W40)Crude prices pulled back on the recent recovery in Middle Eastern oil flows despite growing fears of an escalation in hostilities, while governments return to energy security interventions once again
Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

“Hormuz oil flows can’t possible be above 13 MMbpd bc crude is over $100!” Brother, if you had told an oil analyst in January that Hormuz flows were still down 7 MMbpd after >200 days of war—with the East-West pipeline hobbled—and oil was ONLY $100 they’d have looked at you like

Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📉📈📉 Crude ended roughly flat once again this week despite a more than $10/bbl intraweek range as the barrel ricocheted between diplomatic optimism and mounting concerns regarding prompt barrel scarcity. Summary below, link to full report in reply.

Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

Every week, I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads, high-frequency inventories, refined products, and positioning data, as well as a taste of the themes I’ve been thinking about or following closely Subscribe and read: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw39w26

commoditycontext.comOil Context Weekly (W39)Crude ended roughly flat once again this week despite a more than $10/bbl intraweek range as the barrel ricocheted between diplomatic optimism and mounting concerns regarding prompt barrel scarcity.
Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

Widening gap between US (yellow) and Chinese (green) retail diesel prices year to date. NYMEX diesel (dark blue) and Singapore gasoil (light blue) futures prices included for reference.

Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline entirely offline this week and will remain throttled for a month or more, pushing Riyadh headlong into the Hormuz dark trade, while diesel prices rose above $220/bbl. Summary below, full report in reply.

Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

Every week, I summarize and analyze developments in flat crude prices, calendar spreads, high-frequency inventories, refined products, and positioning data, as well as a taste of the themes I’ve been thinking about or following closely Subscribe and read: www.commoditycontext.com/p/ocw38w26

commoditycontext.comOil Context Weekly (W38)Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline entirely offline this week and will remain throttled for a month or more, pushing Riyadh headlong into the Hormuz dark trade, while diesel prices rose above $220/bbl.
Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

Hey, Iran, buddy, I know we almost single-handedly neutered your Hormuz oil weapon with our big ol' Beijing Swing in your moment of greatest existential need (so awkward, right, because we're such good friends?!) but could you do us a solid and get your Houthi pals to cut it out?

Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

Hormuz oil flow continue to climb, now with reports of daytime transits. The 7-day average of oil transit flow through Hormuz rose to nearly 12 MMbpd as of Sunday, easily the fastest pace since the post-MOU June-July breakout—and this time there's virtually no Iranian crude.

Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

Confirmed transits flatlined over the past two days, but they'll be revised higher, so Sunday's high-water mark is a good best estimate of current flow pace. And to be clear: that's still not actually enough oil!

Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

ALL-TIME HIGH DIESEL CRACK The US diesel crack spread (i.e., refining margin) is now sitting above $111/bbl (vs Brent), the highest level on record. The industrial workhorse fuel is currently trading at roughly $220/bbl, more than double the price of prompt crude futures.

Rory Johnston reposted

Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

🚨 NEW POST 🚨 The Beijing Swing, Part 2: Refined Products Apparent Chinese petroleum product demand fell far more sharply than activity in end-use sectors, with inventories likely buttressing domestic supply and putting a timer on the Swing. www.commoditycontext.com/p/the-beijin...

commoditycontext.comThe Beijing Swing, Part 2: Refined ProductsApparent Chinese petroleum product demand fell far more sharply than any activity decline in end-use sectors, with inventories likely buttressing domestic supply and putting a timer on the Swing.

Rory Johnston reposted

repetitiveuser.bsky.social
@repetitiveuser.bsky.social

This is THE most important question and the answer to it is going to dictate what the outcome ends up looking like worldwide. @roryjohnston.bsky.social really knows his shit

Rory Johnston@roryjohnston.bsky.social

🚨 NEW POST 🚨 The Beijing Swing, Part 2: Refined Products Apparent Chinese petroleum product demand fell far more sharply than activity in end-use sectors, with inventories likely buttressing domestic supply and putting a timer on the Swing. www.commoditycontext.com/p/the-beijin...

commoditycontext.comThe Beijing Swing, Part 2: Refined ProductsApparent Chinese petroleum product demand fell far more sharply than any activity decline in end-use sectors, with inventories likely buttressing domestic supply and putting a timer on the Swing.
Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

🚨 NEW POST 🚨 The Beijing Swing, Part 2: Refined Products Apparent Chinese petroleum product demand fell far more sharply than activity in end-use sectors, with inventories likely buttressing domestic supply and putting a timer on the Swing. www.commoditycontext.com/p/the-beijin...

commoditycontext.comThe Beijing Swing, Part 2: Refined ProductsApparent Chinese petroleum product demand fell far more sharply than any activity decline in end-use sectors, with inventories likely buttressing domestic supply and putting a timer on the Swing.
Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

Lots of questions and confused numbers out there, so to clarify: Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline has a theoretical max capacity of 7 MMbpd. The highest sustained Saudi West Coast export pace we've seen during the conflict is ~5.5 MMbpd, which is 3.5 MMbpd higher than the ~2 MMbpd prewar norm.

Jesse Felder@jessefelder.com

‘Saudi Arabia will run out of oil stocks for exports ‌if it doesn't restart its major pipeline to the Red Sea within days, leading to a loss of up to 4% of global supply, Saudi oil buyers and traders said.’ www.reuters.com/business/ene...

reuters.comSaudi pipeline outage threatens loss of 4% of global oil supplySaudi Arabia will run out of oil stocks for exports ‌if it doesn't restart its major pipeline to the Red Sea within days, leading to a loss of up to 4% of global supply, Saudi oil buyers and traders s...
Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

So 3.5 MMbpd was the incremental swing from the Gulf to the Red Sea. That 5.5 MMbpd export pace sank sharply in August following Houthi maritime ban, but had begun climbing back—latest at ~4 MMbpd.

Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

The thing about commodities markets experiencing acute supply deficits is that they’ll continue getting tighter until said deficit flips to a real surplus. A small deficit, while comforting, doesn’t actually solve the problem, it just slows the blaze. Hormuz still gotta *open*

Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

We discussed the latest resurrection of Keystone XL; whether Canada can fill all the proposed capacity; the increasing competition between private-sector and strategic pipelines; and the return of Venezuelan heavy crude and if it poses a meaningful threat to Canadian barrels in U.S. refineries.

Rory Johnston reposted

Rory Johnston
@roryjohnston.bsky.social

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ 📈Crude prices and term structure explode higher amidst Houthi Red Sea advance and strikes that have at least temporarily taken Saudi Arabia’s critical East-West Pipeline offline, while diesel eyes ATHs Summary below, link to full report in reply.