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I worry that people are still underestimating what is happening here. They think the U.S. is abandoning Europe, where in fact it is realigning against Europe, as an adversary.

Alexander Clarkson@aphclarkson.bsky.social

One way of viewing Trump and Vance's rhetoric on US foreign policy is as a wider effort to generate pretexts for blaming Europeans for a US withdrawal from Europe that the Trump/Musk administration wants to pursue anyway

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Listen to Trump and Vance (and Musk). Do they ever have anything good to say about any of the democratic nations of Europe? To the contrary, they are constantly framing them as corrupt and effete systems that should be rejected and overthrown.

I think you are right to a point but let’s also not attribute too much of a Machiavellian tone to their pronouncements. They haven’t the brains for anything that and with sufficient pushback they change their tunes. Trump may threaten to withdraw but it wld traumatize him to excluded from the club.

It's hard to imagine that we are living in an age where we cozy up to Russia and distance ourselves from our traditional allies in Europe. But here we are.

Exactly. And I would go even further: Vance, hectoring our allies by asking, “Why can’t you embrace the voices of your extremist parties, aren’t you a democracy?” is teeing up the same kind of regime change happening here - a freely elected autocracy that then closes the door on actual democracy.

Some of the Youtube and podcast influencers who helped Trump win are pro-Russia to a degree that is shocking. But if Trump were to come out and say "Russia is our ally now and NATO is the enemy," wouldn't Republicans push back?

The hardcore MAGA base? No, they're too far gone. But outside them it's hard to imagine anyone else acquiescing. We're more likely to see the US become an ineffectual actor due to internal conflict than exporting the MAGA vision.

We will be very fortunate if we manage to avoid war in the next 4 years. They seem intent on destroying the post-WW2 alliance system that has served to prevent another bloody conflict for 80 years.