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One of the Atmosphere’s big bets is that the next 100m users will be won by making decentralised tech + data sovereignty more compelling. I’m less than convinced. We may be solving problems only builders care about, while overlooking problems that actually make ordinary people choose a network.

Laurens@laurenshof.online

What if some of our deepest core assumptions are wrong?

13/8/26, 10:44 am5 reposts51 likes

“Own your data” is an important table-stakes property of an open network, but isn’t an obvious consumer benefit. Most ppl don’t wake up worrying that they don’t control their social data. They want to know what’s happening, follow creators they care about, stay connected and find their communities.

A decade of walled gardens trained us to be consumers not creators. So telling someone they can “own their data” assumes they see themselves as a data-producing participant in a network. Most don’t. Their mental model is much simpler: people I follow; things I care about; where to find them.

Web participation patterns makes this clear: ~90% of people consume 9% interact/react 1% create original content. People aren’t looking for infrastructure. They’re looking for relevance, relationships, info, entertainment, belonging (and increasingly ways to make or save money).

www.nngroup.com/articles/par...

nngroup.comParticipation Inequality: The 90-9-1 Rule for Social FeaturesIn most online communities, 90% of users are lurkers who never contribute, 9% of users contribute a little, and 1% of users account for almost all the action.

That creates a tension for Atmosphere builders. We naturally notice tech capabilities cos we’re close to it. We see what becomes possible with decentralised identity, portable data, composability and an open social graph.

I've been building a new AppView primarily intended to attract new users from outside the Atmosphere. I've talked to multiple interested people & while they understand the principle of decentralization, they don't care much about it. That's why I won't emphasize this argument as prominently anymore

@jimray.bsky.team

Jim Ray@jimray.bsky.team

One of my long held convictions is most people don't care about concepts like "openness" or "decentralization" or "interoperability" (people are busy!) but they do care about what those enable. It's the job of the much smaller number of people who do care to build the experience people will love.

@michelbestaat.thereforeiam.eu

Exactly. Good technology should be like magic, the internal working should invisible to the ordinary users. No one ever said: I love you for how your bones are connected and your organs are decentralized.

@timheffley.xyz

I'm here because I liked the decentralized social media AND data sovereignty. Mastodon always felt fragmented and "hard to use" (I say loosely). As much respect as I have for it, Mastodon was never as user-friendly as it needed to be for the average person to make the leap. Bluesky fixes that.

@timheffley.xyz

I would love to see more non-tech people using Bluesky. That should be the draw, the jumping point. Once here, the greater possibilities become more apparent, even if it's a slow drip of understanding what the possibilities are.

100% agree. It’s a 10 year process easily. Just like the early web was.

The shortsightedness of solving problems only builders care about is definitely going to do us harm but the fruits of d-tech & data are already starting to be reaped. We solved the fundamental issues and now need to focus on rebuilding public infra, what people actually care about

@michael.eny.team

I think it is not about decentralization or data sovereignty at all. From my perspective we need to provide a better ux than other networks. That means less nerdy more convienent mainstream appeal. Better Experience wins. Bringing that to the atmosphere will bring in the next 100m of users.

I haven’t seen this espoused as an Atmosphere bet. - lower cost & complexity for people to build compelling apps - use built in discovery & distribution to surface those apps - re-use of accounts makes it easier to onboard new users Unproven. Everyone’s on their own for monetization right now.

I originally wrote "assumption" but it didn't fit in the character count so changed it to "bet" hoping that the meaning would stay intact.

There may be some who think decentralization = good, therefore success. Always hard to ascribe things broadly. If I had to squint at what I wrote, maybe “interop” as a base property, but Interop by itself doesn’t lead to adoption either.

Agree. It's something I hear talked about a lot "in the threads" and in app marketing copy, so I'm definitely drawing broad strokes here. On interop, I feel similar to what I wrote about data sovereignty somewhere in the thread: it's a great feature and enabler, just not a headline reason to move.