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D+5 generic ballot, Jackson polling +9 & hitting 50% among indies. I won't say it's impossible but it would prove once & for all that Collins is unbeatable.

How could they possibly say registered independents would outvote Democrats and that Rs = Ds? Gotta be more like 36/34/30

So as not to be held responsible for anything Marist Polls says 'everyone is gonna win'

Dawg WHAT is this LV screen lmao bsky.app/profile/drod...

this feels like a blatant hedge. they basically put out two different polls so that afterward, they can point to the one closest to the result and say "look, we got it right"

Yep

We'll know in about a week. For now just toss it in the average.

This seems to be exactly what is happening. Most pollsters seem to be weighting samples to make them look like the 2024 electorate. The demographics of turnout in 2026 will look quite different, favoring Democrats. Every Republican with a lead smaller than +5 anywhere should be very concerned.

Would make sense since Chaz seems like one of the only person making polls out here whose brave enough to communicate what he's seeing and his numbers have been brutal for the GOP. No bullshit LV screen as an insurance policy.

Texas Talarico +4, screened to +2 Ohio Brown +9, screened to +4 Iowa Turek +7, screened to +3 Michigan AES +7, screened to +2