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while I do think Trump could win, I don't agree with the reasoning here www.unpopularfront.news/p/trump-can-...

median Republican primary voters--ie Mark Robinson-style bug eyed freaks shouting incoherent nonsense at a city council meeting, who hold a dozen positions polling at less than 20%--do not remotely constitute a majority of voters

the reason it's neck and neck imo is a) ~all major media sources, online and off, are either right-wing or centrists compulsively laundering Trump's extremism and b) a lot of people are dumb bsky.app/profile/shar...

if Trump wins and all prices go up 20 percent and his white nationalist militia thugs are kicking doors in and dragging families out into the street, millions of people will go "buh what? I wasn't voting for *that*"

"wait, I'm being kicked off my health insurance? why didn't someone tell me this was going to happen?"

"Donald J. Trump started the most deranged war in US history and it's doubled the price of car sauce? nobody could have predicted, I am VERY upset" bsky.app/profile/greg...

“this Donald Trump guy is a real piece of shit. like bro he is fucking absolutely everything up. are you seeing this? I had no idea” bsky.app/profile/simo...

To be fair I think it is *kinda* grimly funny to win a narrow victory driven by depressing liberals and shifts in young people/minorities over inflation, gerrymander based on that specific coalition, then declare war on it

I'm convinced that Trump could have consolidated a right-wing generation if he has just done nothing but stupid stunts, but he's made Zoomers and alphas even more left-wing than Millennials

The 2016 term was that to me because it was a relatively blessed four years capped with a rally round the flag event that would have given Jeb or Rubio Reagan 84 numbers