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SolAbility
@solability.com

We can expect electric car market share to be 80% (most likely more) by 2030. Based on conservative calculations, using market development data, technology penetration curves, and a range of both conventional and AI forecasting tools to forecast future car market developments. #econsky

Zamafir
@zamafir.bsky.social

I appreciate this effort, especially the smartphone analogy, we need to be using that analogy, and the impending destruction of Automotive brands as a result, often Is there a way to produce the penetration graph in a way that makes it easier to understand when each country is expected to hit 100%?

SolAbility
@solability.com

Thank you for your interest. This forecast is based on mathematical models that assume some kind of linearity;. In practice, once a threshold of 80-85% is reached, the market for the the "old" product simply disappears, and goes to 100% very quickly (as opposed to 96 in one year, the 97, ...).

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Zamafir
@zamafir.bsky.social

Totally, it's just not easy to determine which line is which projection for which country, if they were different colors or the 80 or 100% threshold noted for each line, it would be helpful. It's hard to tell where, say, the U.S. estimate is, just looking at the graph casually.