Alexandre Afonso

A coordinated social media effort is believed to have won the election for Lula: I trawled its 10-million-strong WhatsApp group to uncover a playbook for the left: alexandreafonso.substack.com/p/inside-lul...

So how did Lula come from behind to defeat Bolsonaro? In short, turnout. Bolsonaro's vote share barely moved. But Lula banked millions of votes from those who didn't vote in the first round & won eliminated candidates' votes. A remarkable mobilisation. Second round turnout is usually below first.

At least the decline in humanities is compensated by vastly improved maths skills.

This piece on US fundraising is wild newrepublic.com/article/2163...

Immigrants and immigration are under attack everywhere. My forthcoming book looks at the other side, to examine the people who actually support immigration in Europe. cambridgeblog.org/2026/10/beyo...

New post on why the French are (always) unhappy, backed by some European Social Survey data alexandreafonso.substack.com/p/why-are-th...

This is an excellent short contribution about the #FrenchProtests by @alexandreafonso.bsky.social I think the "cultural explanation" goes even further. Because of the French Revolution, (non-violent and violent) protest is perceived more "normal", more "national", and more "positive" in France.

"On one side is a structural dissatisfaction with life, politics and society that is historically and culturally rooted. On the other is a deeply ingrained tradition of protest."

Really interesting blog on why the French are always unhappy. Some interesting structural reasons contextual factors also play a role. In the last 20 years inequality rose, the quality of public services deteriorated (result of cuts), living costs rose not to mention changes to the social contract.

New post on why the French are (always) unhappy, backed by some European Social Survey data alexandreafonso.substack.com/p/why-are-th...

Fascinating stuff from @alexandreafonso.bsky.social!

New post: High skills don't shield immigrants from racial bias: alexandreafonso.substack.com/p/high-skill...

New post: High skills don't shield immigrants from racial bias: alexandreafonso.substack.com/p/high-skill...

Social media is no longer social. Most of it is passive viewing of videos and pictures from people we've never met. But we're still studying social media like it's 2010. We've entered the post-social media era — and research needs to catch up. osf.io/preprints/so... preprint w/ Richard Rogers

Exhibit A: in a recent antitrust filing, Meta argued it isn't a social media monopoly because it isn't really a social media company anymore. Only 7% of Instagram time and 17% of Facebook time is spent on content from friends or followed accounts. The rest is algorithmic video from strangers.

E aí, beleza? I made some graphs using data from yesterday's election in Brazil: here the vote share of Bolsonaro junior plotted by %white, %evangelical, and income. Units are 5000+ municipalities. More here: alexandreafonso.substack.com/p/who-voted-...

Stuff you perhaps don't know: "Ciao" comes from Venetian "s'ciao", literally "[I am your] slave". From Latin "sclavus" (schiavo in modern Italian). Meaning is more "at your service". Same root as "servus", common greeting in Southern Germany and Austria.

Do @alexandreafonso.bsky.social

E aí, beleza? I made some graphs using data from yesterday's election in Brazil: here the vote share of Bolsonaro junior plotted by %white, %evangelical, and income. Units are 5000+ municipalities. More here: alexandreafonso.substack.com/p/who-voted-...

New Blog post: Which Data Repository Should you Use? In light of OSF closing down, I compare Zenodo, Dataverse, ResearchBox, PsychArchive, and local repositories on six important dimensions. If you want to know which to pick: It depends! daniellakens.blogspot.com/2026/08/whic...

Foreign academics now represent almost half of all academic staff employed at Dutch universities (but only a quarter of full professors). I wrote a post showing some data and discussing some ways to understand it: alexandreafonso.substack.com/p/immigrants...

Foreign academics now represent almost half of all academic staff employed at Dutch universities (but only a quarter of full professors). I wrote a post showing some data and discussing some ways to understand it: alexandreafonso.substack.com/p/immigrants...

These are the most common family names in the French-speaking part of Switzerland. www.rts.ch/info/suisse/...

Very happy to see this out on perceptions of welfare deservingness for different categories of migrants, together with @lorenzopiccoli.bsky.social and Samir Negash @fggaleiden.bsky.social, open access in EPSR:

Gianni Infantino is an embarrassment for his country in the sense that none of his corruption seems to serve the purpose of Switzerland winning the world cup title.

#OpenAccess from @epsrjournal.bsky.social - Not all migrants are equal: public support for migrant welfare access by migrant type and social protection scheme - https://cup.org/44hn5Vj - Samir Mustafa Negash, @lorenzopiccoli.bsky.social & @alexandreafonso.bsky.social #FirstView

I made a small visualisation of the birthplace and nation represented of players at the World Cup. Stunning 96(!) players born in France. You can play with it here: claude.ai/public/artif...

Accidental Elvis, ca. 1977

"Not all migrants are equal" 🥇 🥈 🥉 @lorenzopiccoli.bsky.social, @fggaleiden.bsky.social's Samir Negash & @alexandreafonso.bsky.social drawn on experiments from Germany and the UK to evaluate the deservingness of citizens and different migrant categories across 4 welfare schemes buff.ly/EUExGVs

When people think about migrants and welfare, they often ask a simple question: Should migrants have access to social benefits? Our new paper with @alexandreafonso.bsky.social and Samir Negash suggests the answer is much more nuanced. @epsrjournal.bsky.social. tinyurl.com/exntas9d 🧵 1/6

Congrats! Well-timed and from a brief skim seems to chime with what we find regarding NHS health access versus other forms of benefits. I like the segmented language too. Would love to meet up and compare notes if any of you are going to @epssnet.bsky.social this week. bsky.app/profile/will...

Absolutely fascinating polling by @christabelcoops.bsky.social @thinklabour.bsky.social. Says a lot about the (mis)perceptions of voters - and the cues they use to evaluate the social background of politicians.

Today! Moderated by @alexandreafonso.bsky.social Very much looking forward to it!

The MAGA World Cup event is back on, thanks to @alexandreafonso.bsky.social 🙏 Same time, roughly same place, same format. All welcome!

Clearly shows we are a serious contender for the title, since they're starting to use all sorts of dirty tricks against us.

🚨🚨 #Switzerland’s star striker Breel Embolo has been barred from entering #US ahead of #WorldCup following a last-minute decision by US authorities to review his #clearance to travel. 🧵 www.politico.eu/article/swit...