✨ New preprint out! ✨
Really happy to share that our manuscript “Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3: Experimental protocol for coordinated constraining and evaluation of Reduced-Complexity Models” is now available as a preprint on EGUsphere
🔗 Preprint: doi.org/10.5194/egus...
As part of our 10th anniversary celebrations, we recognised four outstanding members of the Priestley community
Congratulations to Alex Romero Prieto, Elliott Johnson, Prof Alex Beresford & Dr Ruth Bookbinder for their impactful climate research and collaboration.
climate.leeds.ac.uk/news/priestl...
Just arriving in Vienna for #EGU! If you’d like to chat about RCMIP, come by my poster on Thursday at 14:00 (session NP1.2 in Hall X4). Or just stop by to say hi!
Yesterday, Piers Forster presented Defining National Fossil Fuel Phase Out Roadmaps: A Colombian Case Study at a side event at TAFF in Santa Marta.
Key to the roadmap was the work of Priestley researchers Elliott Johnson and Alejandro Romero Prieto. Here's Alejandro's thoughts on the conference.
It's day 5 of the Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels Conference in Colombia.
Today at 10–11, Colombia Time, Priestley will host a side event on the Fossil Fuel Phase Out Roadmap followed by a discussion.
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/a-roadmap-...
At the Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels Conference, Prof Piers Forster launched a draft national roadmap for fossil fuel phase-out: a Colombia-based, collaborative and science-led case study, demonstrating how roadmaps can support a just transition www.youtube.com/watch?v=Txuu...
Grateful to be part of this collaboration and to help shape Colombia’s fossil fuel phase-out roadmap with such a strong group of colleagues.
#ClimateAction#FossilFuelPhaseOut#EnergyTransition#SantaMarta#TransitioningAwayFromFossilFuels
We're excited to announce that Priestley Centre Director, Piers Forster, is speaking at the Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels Conference in Colombia. 18:00 Colombia time today, he’ll present the draft national roadmap for fossil fuel phase-out in Colombia. #TAFF#ClimateScience#EnergyTransition
The conversations happening at TAFF feel especially important right now. The focus has to shift from targets to implementation.
We know what needs to be done. Now it’s about how to do it. Country-led, practical strategies are essential to turn ambition into real-world action.
We're excited to announce that Priestley Centre Director, Piers Forster, is speaking at the Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels Conference in Colombia. 18:00 Colombia time today, he’ll present the draft national roadmap for fossil fuel phase-out in Colombia. #TAFF#ClimateScience#EnergyTransition
New on the Latitude blog: our next interview with a PhD student in climate research, @yasserhaddad.bsky.social of @usyseth.bsky.social!
latitude.plos.org/2026/04/plos...
Friendly reminder: only a few days remain to submit your model output for the next RCMIP round.
If you’d like to participate but the deadline is… rapidly approaching, do get in touch. We can likely be flexible and accommodate slightly later submissions.
✨ New preprint out! ✨
Really happy to share that our manuscript “Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3: Experimental protocol for coordinated constraining and evaluation of Reduced-Complexity Models” is now available as a preprint on EGUsphere
🔗 Preprint: doi.org/10.5194/egus...
Wild figures in two decades of EIA retrospective data.
Solar getting it wrong gets all the airplay. But the consistent underestimation of natural gas exports and the speed of coal's collapse are just as striking, even at 3-5 year horizons.
National carbon budgets are smaller than commonly assumed because scientists and countries count CO₂ differently. Our new study in Nature Communications corrects for this and finds that the 1.5 °C budget shrinks by ~50%, the 2 °C budget by ~20%. Paper + data: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Thread 👇
Public discussion on the RCMIP3 protocol paper has now been opened!
Do send us your thoughts if you have any ideas on how we could make the intercomparison better!
✨ New preprint out! ✨
Really happy to share that our manuscript “Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3: Experimental protocol for coordinated constraining and evaluation of Reduced-Complexity Models” is now available as a preprint on EGUsphere
🔗 Preprint: doi.org/10.5194/egus...
New paper in ERL in which we study the effect of a long-known issue in climate emulators: that we typically calibrate them on only 150 years of 4xCO2 ESM runs. This a problem as we know the climate isn't in equilibrium after this time, but running ESMs is 1/N
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
🎉 My first publication is out in Geoscientific Model Development!
📝 “Review of climate simulation by Simple Climate Models”
⭐ Selected as a GMD Highlight Article
Link: doi.org/10.5194/gmd-...
Simple Climate Models (SCMs) are central to climate science & policy, but their diversity makes comparison difficult.
In this review we:
• summarise core SCM principles
• trace genealogy & design choices
• compare all 14 SCMs from previous RCMIP phases
Grateful to my co-authors & supervisors (Chris Smith, Camilla Mathison, Piers Forster), and to the SCM developers who sanity-checked my understanding 😅
🌍 Working on climate model emulation or impact projections?
➡️ Abstracts are still open for our EGU 2026 session “Advances in climate change emulation for impact projections” (#CL3.2.7)
SCMs, ML, emulator evaluations, impacts & more welcome.
🔗 Session info + link: www.egu26.eu/session/56612#EGU26
If your research touches on climate model emulation or its applications to impacts (water, agriculture, energy, ecosystems, etc.), we’d love to hear from you.
📩 Abstract submissions are open.
🔗 Session info + link: www.egu26.eu/session/56612
The session is CL3.2.7: Advances in climate change emulation for impact projections.
We’re bringing together work on climate emulators of all kinds:
• simple climate models
• statistical / ML / hybrid approaches
• pattern scaling
• emulator comparison + evaluation
• real-world impact studies
✨ New preprint out! ✨
Really happy to share that our manuscript “Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3: Experimental protocol for coordinated constraining and evaluation of Reduced-Complexity Models” is now available as a preprint on EGUsphere
🔗 Preprint: doi.org/10.5194/egus...
Huge thank you to everyone who contributed feedback during development, and to the fantastic team that made this possible! 🙌
🧊 RCMIP website: www.rcmip.org
We’re excited to open RCMIP3 to the community and to see the science that will grow from it.
If you work with RCMs/SCMs or IAM-linked climate components, we’d love to have you involved!
✨ New preprint out! ✨
Really happy to share that our manuscript “Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3: Experimental protocol for coordinated constraining and evaluation of Reduced-Complexity Models” is now available as a preprint on EGUsphere
🔗 Preprint: doi.org/10.5194/egus...
This protocol is the result of a big community effort to coordinate how reduced-complexity / simple climate models are benchmarked, constrained, and evaluated for the IPCC AR7 cycle.
It introduces expanded idealised + scenario experiments, strong carbon-cycle focus, and alignment with CMIP7.
We place particular emphasis on overshoot behaviour, climate reversibility, and the dynamics of net-zero and negative-emissions pathways — enabling the most comprehensive assessment yet of how RCMs represent carbon-climate feedbacks and long-term response.
Newly published: an overview of FRIDAv2.1, a new IAM to model the coupled human-Earth system (including climate impacts!) gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...
OUT NOW: Global Tipping Points Report 2025
global-tipping-points.org
Our chapter on the "Implications of overshooting 1.5°C for
Earth system tipping points" is based on an associated paper: doi.org/10.31223/X52...
Minimizing climate overshoot is essential to prevent climate tipping points.
🌍📢 Calling all emulator / reduced-complexity / simple climate modelling groups!
The next round of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP) is starting, and we’d love your feedback.
🌍📢 Calling all emulator / reduced-complexity / simple climate modelling groups!
The next round of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP) is starting, and we’d love your feedback.
We hope this intercomparison will be useful for the whole reduced-complexity modelling community. So:
✔️ contribute feedback
✔️ help design simulations
✔️ take a supporting or leading role
Please share with colleagues who might be interested—everyone’s welcome!
🌍📢 Calling all emulator / reduced-complexity / simple climate modelling groups!
The next round of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP) is starting, and we’d love your feedback.
We are hoping to IPCC AR7 with this exercise, which will include a new intercomparison of SCM carbon cycles.
We are also very open to the community driving intercomparisons of other model cliamate processes, so do get in touch if you would like to join this effort.
The pre-print for my review of simple climate models (SCMs) is out! This is a deep dive on how SCMs actually simulate climate, looking at the different steps in the emissions-temperature causal chain.
You can find it here: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
I reviewed all 14 SCMs participating in at least one of the two rounds of RCMIP, summarising their development history and internal structure.
Essentially, it is the document i would have liked to have at the start of my PhD when I needed to get up-to-speed with climate emulation by SCMs.
⏰The Scenarios Forum 2025 starts tomorrow- we're looking forward to welcoming all delegates to Leeds for 3 days of inspiring discussions and presentations about Climate and Societal Futures.
Find out more about the programme here: scenariosforum.org
Will we see you there? Let us know!
Currently travelling to Manchester for the Royal meteorological society early careers and student conference, where I will be chairing the session on extreme weather events as part of the organising committee. Do say hi if you are around!
Reminder: call for abstracts for the CMIP Community Workshops. Latest developments in models & approaches, reflections on CMIP6, explorations on CMIP7, etc.
In particular for those related to climate emulators, I encourage you to check the session 29.
All info here: wcrp-cmip.org/event/cmip26/
The CMIP Community Workshop 2026 will be held in Kyoto, Japan from 9-13th March 2026. The call for abstracts for CMIP26 is now open! Find out more at wcrp-cmip.org/cmip26-call-...
I want to connect with and highlight more trans voices working with plants, wildlife, and the natural environment so I've created a starter pack!
If this sounds like you, introduce yourself by quote-posting this skeet and I'll add you to the list 🏳️⚧️
reminder, bsky has a clever way to display pronouns that's built in!
but you only see them if you yourself opt in, so please feel free to here by subscribing and then choosing which applies!!
@pronouns.diy
New paper on the risks of forest ecosystem impacts under emissions pathways designed to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals is out today in Nature Climate Change! 🌳
Read it here: www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02327-9