Sam Vimes' Boot Salesman

One Billion Supreme Court Justices

Oh look another data point that shows Trump won’t lift a finger for anyone not named Trump. Anyway! Back to the midterms where he’s not on the ballot.

I have zero expectations of Florida but this has been very funny to watch

Looks like the blue wave is back on the menu boys

Troy Jackson is clearly winning the sign wars in southern Maine, though I guess that was to be expected

At this rate they should file a motion for Reed O’Connor to preemptively declare Paxton the winner just to see if he does it.

Peak New England

Really looking forward to the inevitable Alito dissent on this one

The only world where JD doesn’t run is one where Trump has a 4% approval rating and the GOP is looking at a nationwide wipeout. So sure, go for it.

I can tell you right now it’s not a secret!

YIKES #mesen #mepolitics

The Laken Riley Act is a terrible law, but it’s not clear to me that she would be fine but for the Act. ICE has already taken the position that they can detain people in her situation, without even bothering to cite it.

lol what

Supposing, as the conspiracy argues, Ilhan Omar had been 18 years or older on the date her father became naturalized, then as an adult she could have filled out and submitted her own application for naturalization It’s not as though she’d never have been a U.S. citizen but-for the birthdate thing

Not that anyone should expect better from Trump & his Goons who are taking cues from lunatics like Jack Posobiec, but their contention that Ilhan Omar would have been motivated and able to intentionally revise her age hardly makes any sense

Guys, we are well past the point where we need to preface tweets about Ilhan Omar with "If she really did something, show us the evidence." We all know she did not do something and there is no evidence.

This reads like a harebrained scheme to denaturalize her. Which will not work for a number of reasons, but someone has to please their boss.

Step 1: Fired for plagiarism scandal Step 2: Pivot to whatever this is

I skipped high school to buy tickets for The Phantom Menace. The following day my Dad asked ," how was school?" I replied, " It was fine " He then threw this newspaper at me and asked , " how the fuck would you know?" He was so pleased with himself that I didn't actually get in trouble.

I have been seeing a lot of people not trusting the polls in the Midwest, which is totally fair given recent history. But if all you knew were Trump's national net approval, there would be absolutely nothing weird about any of the polling in any race right now. wertwhile.substack.com/p/on-polling...

I’ve written this up here. In addition to there not being a Covid-scale drop in tourism recently, you might also be wondering why visits from Mexico seem to double around 2004-05. The answer is not a sudden shift in Mexican preferences but rather our old friend, There Was A Change In The Measure.

I keep seeing this Semafor graph that seems to show the Trump administration’s effect on international visits is comparable to the pandemic. My first thought was “that can’t be true” and indeed it is not. This is monthly data. We only have to Jun/Aug 2026. The lines are over-fitted to the months.

Last year not a single refugee fleeing religious persecution was admitted to the US.

I have to keep saying this but it’s not just that the admin is only accepting white South Africans, but that the white South Africans plainly do not qualify as refugees under the law

This would turn into a very funny example of possession being nine-tenths of the law

New graphics from AdImpact vividly illustrate something we've emphasized repeatedly: The GOP's massive spending advantage is *not* translating into a comparable *advertising* advantage. In #TXSen, e.g., the GOP has spent 66% of all ad money but aired just 54% of all ads adimpact.com/blogs/republ...

The thing about having your immigration policy run by an actual psychopath is that you might not anticipate complications such as: immigrants having friends and families and people who care about them

Tragic news: our reality is just an AU where Anakin Skywalker becomes a classical pianist.

Ted Kennedy won his last two elections so handily that no one today knows what his opponents looked like

seeing a lot of discussion about this and like: the reason the poster did a screenshot with no link is that if you actually search for the article you'd learn that this bill 1) has nothing to do with Zohran Mamdani 2) was introduced in committee back in May and didn't go anywhere

Okay now I’m worried about polling

Okay Obama needs to film an ad where he looks dead center at the camera that says “Susan Collins is a Republican and voted for Brett Kavanaugh. If you re-elect her John Thune, a Republican, stays majority Leader”

That’s right 8th Party System here we come

Taylor Lorenz is proof that Elon's ideological project at Twitter is working. Yeah, the lady who spends 18 hours a day online suddenly got more right wing after he took over, that was the point.

this illustrates the gap—Rs are badly outspending Ds everywhere but GA, I believe, but their ad advantages are modest at best because they pay awful rates for so much of it while every Dem except for (probably) Nixon, even post-primary AES, has the money to pay for enough TV to avoid getting lost

I think he will *probably* pardon them but on the other hand, counting on Donald Trump to repay a favor has a historically rocky track record

Client order immediately released from ICE detention this morning because the government failed to respond to our habeas petition after requesting and receiving an extension to do so. I’ve heard of it happening but first time I’ve seen it in the wild.