Ryan J. McComb

25,000 simulations in, this is what the model is saying. Due to Kat's apparent fervent support among people who identify as "very liberal," (MDW crosstabs) she receives a better vote share when fewer people show up and the highest propensity liberals. For context 75,000 showed up in 2024.

Really proud of what the whole team and I have built here. We get to do some incredible things at VoteHub. Here’s a walkthrough of the new donor map and a bit of analysis on where campaign money is coming from this cycle.

Really proud of what the whole team and I have built here. We get to do some incredible things at VoteHub. Here’s a walkthrough of the new donor map and a bit of analysis on where campaign money is coming from this cycle.

🚨🚨 We are thrilled to launch the VoteHub 2026 National Donor Map. See where nearly $2 billion in donations to House and Senate campaigns came from, county by county, for every 2026 race and nearly 2,900 candidates.

NEW: Inside VoteHub’s 2026 Donor Map @bayespr.bsky.social examines the small-dollar gap, the geography of Republican and Democratic giving, and how campaign money flows across state lines. votehub.com/2026/10/24/i...

People noticed this earlier this week, but resort and big-city counties are among the biggest sources of campaign donations per resident. I wrote about why ski and island towns stand out in my breakdown of VoteHub’s new national donor map.

Thank you for sharing, I should post more on here!

So @bayespr.bsky.social at @votehub.com made a series of maps showing how zip codes are donating to Senate candidates In TX, Talarico raised $128.8M to Paxton's $19.5M, with 43% of Talarico's itemized donations coming from Texas compared with 76% of Paxton's.

Every Map Everywhere All at Once. Check out my new research blog post! www.mccomb.ca/writing/ever...

Props to the whole team. This is the most futuristic way to view early voting data — we model the early vote in real time, and you can see it all live. Thanks to our friends at L2 Data!

Super excited to have done a bit of research and worked on this over a few weeks! We're going to need a lot more GPU hours until we can fully determine the extent of how predictive satellite modeling is, but it is interesting to say the least!

As of today, our forecast gives Democrats a 76% chance of flipping the House and a 47% chance of taking the Senate. The two are highly correlated: Republicans keep the Senate 99% of the time they hold the House, and Democrats take it 62% of the time they flip the House.

If a forensic accountant saw these numbers, they'd probably open an investigation. But they're looking at ordinary donations. Why do ActBlue and WinRed contributions fail Benford's Law, a famous test for financial fraud? New analysis from @bayespr.bsky.social votehub.com/2026/06/18/a...

VoteHub projects Clayton Fuller to win the Georgia U.S. House District 14 general election.

NEW — Democrats are poised to flip a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat and expand their majority, with turnout set to decide the margin in a low-salience race. We break down what to watch tonight. Read our full preview by @bayespr.bsky.social 👇 votehub.com/2026/04/07/w...

Hey, is that me? :) evanstonroundtable.com/2026/02/10/e...

IL9.org MODEL!! yay! After overwriting tons of data multiple times in Stata, we have the first model, tons of tedious work but check it out 👇 Model: il9.org/odds

Official #IL09 Forecasting thread! Let's keep it here 👇

transit use may be the #1 predictor of high-propensity dem primary voters??

Hmmmmmm.....

Currently a 31% chance of a Biss-1st/ Fine-2nd finish! Check out more advanced Heatmap data and more 👇 IL9.org

Evanston Township High School student Ryan McComb built a really cool real-time aggregator site that collects data points on prediction markets, fundraising data and a bunch of other stuff for #IL09 👇🏼 Super cool stuff il9.org

This district’s primaries have had maybe two competitive races since my grandparents were born… and none in my lifetime, or almost two of my lifetimes, for that matter. Two people — Yates and Schakowsky, have represented this seat for 97.5% of the time since 1949. (there was a small break in 63’)

On Super Tuesday, voters in 15 states will determine how 854 ⎯ more than a third of the total available ⎯ delegates will be distributed between the two remaining Republican candidates, Donald Trump and Nikki Haley. Follow live results here. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

One thing I have noticed about this place is that the average education level is close to or above a masters.