Berkeley Earth

We are excited to announce our new climate data platform: Synthesis by Berkeley Earth synthesis.berkeleyearth.org It connects historical data (e.g. weather stations, city and regional averages) with bias-corrected climate model projections of the future. Introduction 🧵

Join us tomorrow at @berkeleyearth.org for our monthly weather and climate update. A record-breaking El Niño is rumbling and the rest of 2026 is poised to challenge records. 8 AM PT / 11 AM ET / 5 PM CET docs.google.com/spreadsheets... Geared for journalists, but all are welcome.

Join Berkeley Earth for our next Monthly Press Briefing on Thursday, October 22 at 8AM PDT/ 5PM CET. We'll share findings from our September 2026 Temperature Update, along with an inside look at our newly rebuilt data pipeline. Live Q&A to follow. 🔗 Register here: tinyurl.com/3pmwp3z6

The October runs for dynamical El Niño models are now all out, and its a mixed bag. Some revise the event downward, some upward, but on average its still expected to peak at ~4C, albeit with the peak more likely to occur in December than November:

This year's El Niño continues its climb into uncharted waters; Niño3.4 region anomalies are now at a 3.4C above normal (how fitting!), higher than any prior El Niño event on record. September monthly Niño3.4 anomalies also set a record at 2.9C (beating 2015 and 1877's 2.75C).

Temperatures in the Central Pacific El Niño region are the hottest ever measured (top panel), and far above any other El Niño at this time of year. But, if you adjust for the warming of the global ocean, the current trajectory is not so different from other very strong events.

With three months left to go, the folks at @berkeleyearth.org are all but certain that 2026 will land as the all-time HOTTEST year on record for this blue marble we call Earth. Currently, the list stands as: #1: 2024 #2: 2023 #3: 2025 #4: 2016 #5: 2020

Happening in just under 30minutes…still time to register via the link below. See you there!

I have a new piece out in Nature today on the record-breaking 2026/2027 El Niño, what impacts we should expect, and how governments can prepare. The Niño3.4 region is currently running more than 1C hotter than any prior event on record, and we remain months away from the peak www.nature.com/artic...

Berkeley Earth will be holding our monthly climate briefing on Thursday. Safe to say that there is a lot going on with weather and climate the moment. 8 AM PT / 11 AM ET / 5 PM CET It is geared towards the media, but anyone is welcome. us02web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...

This year's El Niño event is moving into record territory, with the daily Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) tying the record previously set during the 2015/2016 super-El Niño. My latest over at Carbon Brief: www.carbonbrief.org/...

Berkeley Earth will be hosting our next Monthly Press Briefing on Thursday 9/24 at 8amPDT/5pmCET. August was eventful; we're extending this month's briefing to a *full hour* to accommodate the full scope of our August 2026 update, with live Q&A to follow. 🔗 to register: tinyurl.com/mr33hhk4

This year produced the hottest summer in the history of modern France. Some of that record is down to the specific weather patterns that occurred this year, but global warming deserves a large share of the credit for generally making French summers hotter over time.

After a nearly month-long plateau Nino3.4 region temperatures (ONI) are on their way back up. We've now surpassed 1982/1983 and are only behind 2015/2016 in terms of maximum daily values. And its only early September.

The emissions scenarios underlying the next generation of climate model runs that will be featured in the upcoming IPCC 7th Assessment Report are officially out! I have a big new explainer over at Carbon Brief taking an in-depth look at what they mean and whats changed: www.carbonbrief.org/...

To what extent can the upcoming El Niño give us a preview of a future, warmer climate? Over at the Climate Brink, @zekehausfather.com and @andrewdessler.com break down the scientific nuances behind framing El Niño as a "time machine" to predict future the climate. tinyurl.com/47ny7fjh

With record-breaking heatwaves, France just had both its warmest June and July on record. Systematic collection of weather data basically began in Western Europe, giving Europe the longest thermometer-based histories in the world. After more than 250 years, we have changed the climate. 🧪

“Human emissions are adding a permanent El Niño worth of heat to the climate system each decade.” Berkeley Earth's @zekehausfather.com spoke with @bennollweather.bsky.social @washingtonpost.com about the future preview coming via this year's record-setting El Niño. Gift link: wapo.st/4htwiBY

Berkeley Earth's Temperature Update for July 2026 is now available, including updates on the rapidly-strengthening El Niño and what we can expect from the remainder of 2026. The full text is available here: berkeleyearth.org/july-2026-te...

We will be having our Berkeley Earth monthly press briefing tomorrow at 8 AM Pacific, covering July global temperatures, the rapidly developing El Nino event, and what to expect for the remainder of 2026 and for 2027. Register here to join: us02web.zoom.us/webi...

An eventful month, an eventful year, and we are still months away from the peak of an already record-setting El Niño...join us this Thurs 8/13 for updates from our July report, including the most recent El Niño forecasts, followed by live Q&A. Registration is required: tinyurl.com/mvpuwhej

The rise in Niño 3.4 region sea surface temperatures over the past few weeks has been nothing short of astonishing. We are now hotter than any days during the 1997/1998 super El Niño event, and we are still many months from the peak.

More coverage of our analysis of the current #ElNiño model forecasts from last week's monthly climate briefing in @wired.com. We'll be tracking the progress of the current El Niño in the months to come...register now to receive invites to future briefings, along updates: ➡️ tinyurl.com/ys9s4932

See the alternating warm and cold patches in the Northern mid-latitudes? That's the imprint of a quasi-stationary Rossby wave (i.e. oscillations in the jet stream). It's rare to see it so clearly in a monthly-average temperature map.

It's not quite "gobsmackingly bananas" but monster forecasts for the record El Nino brewing the Pacific Ocean get pretty close. Here's what to make of it in my first for @nature.com: 🧪 www.nature.com/articles/d41...

Just under an hour left to register for today’s monthly briefing, where we’ll share findings from our June update, as well as the latest on the current “super” El Niño. Hope to see you there. Link to register: tinyurl.com/4nfnh794

The current El Niño cycle has officially entered "Super" territory, but the peak impacts are still months away. We'll be discussing updated model forecasts and what this means for the remainder of 2026 at our Monthly Climate Briefing this Thurs at 8amPDT/5pmCET. Join us: tinyurl.com/4nfnh794

Summer 2026 is shaping up to be memorable, but the peak of the current El Niño cycle still lies ahead. Join us next week as @rarohde.bsky.social and @zekehausfather.com share updates from our June 2026 report, and outline what the rest of 2026 holds. Registration required ➡️ tinyurl.com/4nfnh794

Climate change does not cause wildfires, but hot and dry conditions make them much more likely to spread. In Canada, 9 of the 10 worst wildfire years were both dryer and hotter than normal. And these fires are burning in areas that were historically not managed or suppressed.

With all the July model runs now in, it is very likely that 2026 will see the largest El Niño event since records began in the late 1800s – and potentially by a truly mind-blowing margin. The median estimate is now 3.6C, roughly 0.8C hotter than the prior record (2.75C). www.theclimatebrink....