Research Associate at the Social, Genetic & Developmental Psychiatry Centre, Kings College London. Interests: developmental psychology, data science, coffee. www.bignardi.co.uk
New preprint with @rogierk.bsky.social@paulbuerkner.com - we introduce "relative measurement uncertainty" - a reliability estimation method that's applicable across a broad class of Bayesian measurement models (e.g., generative-, computational- and item response theory-models osf.io/h54k8
Family research in child and adolescent mental health has often been framed as if influence runs mainly from adults to children.
In this #OpenAccess JCPP Advances Editorial, @eivindy.bsky.social comments on when children also shape the family environment. https://bit.ly/4f3FjyS
1/ I am thrilled to begin sharing the latest release of pyEM, a Python package I built for fitting cognitive computational models to behavioral data using hierarchical expectation maximization (EM) with maximum a posteriori estimation (MAP).
github.com/shawnrhoads/...
Interested in exploring the intergenerational consequences of #racism? On 9 June 2026, ACAMH’s #ACEs SIG will hold a brilliant webinar on this very topic.
In this Q&A, we caught up with the presenter – Dr. Yasmin Ahmadzadeh – about her research, and her hopes for the event. https://bit.ly/3PgufW2
Scientists should be judged not just on their research, but the claims they make. Quitting smoking is one of the most powerful ways you can improve your health. Visiting a museum can never come close.
Such a claim should require extraordinary evidence. This study is anything but.
18/18 🧵
BGA needs people to communicate if their not going to back out/cancel last minute, or will only be present on 1/2 days, so they can allocate spots to our colleagues and friends who otherwise currently cannot attend due to venue capacity.
⚠️ This BGA has turned out to be exceptionally popular with unprecedented numbers of submissions and people wanting to attend. We are now holding a waiting list for non-speakers (this includes symposia Chairs and Discussants) who have not yet registered.
🚨 Call for Abstracts: The New Measurement Heretics
We welcome proposals from researchers in the philosophy, history, sociology, and anthropology of measurement who would like to address themes around formal & informal measurement concepts ⚖️
Find out more 👇
medhumsplatform.org/call-for-abs...
I've made an R package for Bayesian Rasch #psychometrics with brms models, easyRaschBayes (on CRAN), implementing simple functions to create figures and tables with model fit metrics, etc. Attaching figures from conditional item infit, item-restscore with GK gamma, and the log-likelihood criterion.
Job ad: Postdoc to work with me & @rogierk.bsky.social at the Donders on lifespan development questions from Sept onward!
Profile: independent, good quant skills, interested in theory-driven work
Please share widely
www.careersatradboudumc.com/vacancies/po...#Postdoc#AcademicJobs
"There are signs that the Bayes Factor is increasingly taking on a role analogous to that of the p-value, serving as a device for the automation of decisions rather than as a tool for substantive inference."
Excellent new preprint by Carol Ting on the rise of NHST.
#Methodology#stats
as I'm revising my course materials, I keep stumbling upon cool @mc-stan.org developments.
Current favorites:
1. your model has funnels and you exhausted reparametrization ideas: metric = "dense_e" makes your HMC learn about covariance btw parameters. Sloooow, but effective!
1/
Hot take: one of the main benefits of running data analyses in 🐬 Docker 🐬 isn't reproducibility, but saving yourself (or your lab) hundreds or thousands of pounds in computer costs*. Here's how... #datascience#docker#rstudio#python
*for a very niche set of people
But you can also buy a windows/linux desktop or mini PC with lots of RAM for far less money, if you don't mind slightly worse CPU performance. The differences are even bigger if you need 128GB of RAM....
Worth noting this approach works with python/jupyter aswell, and across windows/linux/macos. Also RAM prices will be crazy in 2026 due to AI, so prices will change!
Hot take: one of the main benefits of running data analyses in 🐬 Docker 🐬 isn't reproducibility, but saving yourself (or your lab) hundreds or thousands of pounds in computer costs*. Here's how... #datascience#docker#rstudio#python
*for a very niche set of people
If you already have a gaming computer at home, with Docker + Tailscale, you can work from it remotely pretty seamlessly. Alternatively, if you only occasionally need more computer power, you can rent a server (running Docker) from your university or a private company (e.g., www.hetzner.com/cloud).
Apple users who need 64GB of RAM will need to shell out either £3,879 for a MacBook 16 Pro or £1,839 for a Mac mini. Therefore, you could get both a 64GB mini and a basic MacBook Air (£900) for much less - and you'll only lose £900 when you leave your laptop on the tube.
Hot take: one of the main benefits of running data analyses in 🐬 Docker 🐬 isn't reproducibility, but saving yourself (or your lab) hundreds or thousands of pounds in computer costs*. Here's how... #datascience#docker#rstudio#python
*for a very niche set of people
A nice thing about Docker (though this isn't exclusive to Docker) is that it runs RStudio Server, which we access via a web browser. By default, we can only access it on our own computer, but we can also access it from other computers via a secure, encrypted connection using the free app Tailscale.
For illustrative purposes, I've installed tailscale on my desktop and phone. On my phone, I simply replace the localhost part of the web address with the tailscale ip address of my desktop, and bingo, I can access RStudio server on another device - and it works largely the same.
Hot take: one of the main benefits of running data analyses in 🐬 Docker 🐬 isn't reproducibility, but saving yourself (or your lab) hundreds or thousands of pounds in computer costs*. Here's how... #datascience#docker#rstudio#python
*for a very niche set of people
Most of us work partly from home, so we need to work in different locations. For most, this means buying a laptop. However, if you work with large datasets and do complex analyses, you may need a higher-spec laptop with more RAM, which can cost 2-3x as much as the basic-spec version.
video making very strong (& problematic) claims about the supposed damaging effects of screen time on children's education & cognition is trending on youtube (from the US senate committee)... www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fd-_...
video making very strong (& problematic) claims about the supposed damaging effects of screen time on children's education & cognition is trending on youtube (from the US senate committee)... www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fd-_...
...claims such as: "Gen Z is the first population to cognitively underperform us on every measure", "Once countries widely adopt digital technologies in school, performance goes down wildly.", "We have evolved biologically to learn from other human beings, not from screens."
On Tues, February 17th I'll be giving a talk and short workshop on (narratively) generative modeling for Princeton's psychology department, psychology.princeton.edu/news-events/.... The talk (and maybe the workshop) will be live-streamed for those interested in attending remotely.
I've used Lavaan almost every (work)day for 15 years, but this open source labour of love has never received proper institutional support. I'm delighted to be a small part of an 1.5M OpenScienceNL award, led by Jorgensen, to completely revamp and futureproof Lavaan www.openscience.nl/en/news/45-p...
Wow if you have a UK student loan this is definitely worth checking, Xmas is on @martinlewis.moneysavingexpert.com again this year 🎄🎄https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/students/student-loan-overpayment-refund
For those who have recieved non taxable phd stipends and have been in employment directly before or after, you may have overpaid your student loan due to the sneeky way it's collected...
In 2021 we reported that live learning outperformed recorded learning. In a new preregistered analysis, my first senior-author paper led by Stan de Visser (pre-print), we find that this benefit does not increase with interactivity. The potential to interact may be enough to boost learning. A thread:
Happy to share my new paper published in @nathumbehav.nature.com: A critical look at statistical power in computational modeling studies, particularly those based on model selection.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
We wrote an article explaining why you shouldn't put several variables into a regression model and report which are statistically significant - even as exploratory research. bmjmedicine.bmj.com/content/4/1/.... How did we do?
New paper by brilliant final yer PhD student Blanca Piera Pi-Sunyer and colleagues, including 3 undergraduate students (Evans, Ratcliffe, Janaarthanan) 🤩
The Relationship between Perceived Friendship Quality and Self-Judgements in Adolescent Girls from London
journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....
Blanca Piera Pi-Sunyer on how to make the world a better place for young people, the cumulative impact of adversity & how to mitigate it in the Gates Cambridge podcast, So, now what? - @cambridgeuni.bsky.social
This is really neat. I have borrowed the reliability() function to my `easyRasch` package, and use plausible values instead of fully Bayesian estimation to produce similar estimates/CIs, see code example below. RMU point estimates are similar to EAP reliability.
pgmj.github.io/easyRasch/re...
New preprint with @rogierk.bsky.social@paulbuerkner.com - we introduce "relative measurement uncertainty" - a reliability estimation method that's applicable across a broad class of Bayesian measurement models (e.g., generative-, computational- and item response theory-models osf.io/h54k8
I've added a new example to our paper's repo, demonstrating how our reliability method replicates Cronbach's alpha for a simple model, but also how our method can account for: (i) binary data, (ii) varying numbers of items per pps, & (iii) improvement over trials www.bignardi.co.uk/8_bayes_reli...
New preprint with @rogierk.bsky.social@paulbuerkner.com - we introduce "relative measurement uncertainty" - a reliability estimation method that's applicable across a broad class of Bayesian measurement models (e.g., generative-, computational- and item response theory-models osf.io/h54k8
New preprint with @rogierk.bsky.social@paulbuerkner.com - we introduce "relative measurement uncertainty" - a reliability estimation method that's applicable across a broad class of Bayesian measurement models (e.g., generative-, computational- and item response theory-models osf.io/h54k8
New preprint with @rogierk.bsky.social@paulbuerkner.com - we introduce "relative measurement uncertainty" - a reliability estimation method that's applicable across a broad class of Bayesian measurement models (e.g., generative-, computational- and item response theory-models osf.io/h54k8
In the paper, we also demonstrate that our method yields a similar point estimate to using the ratio of subjects' posterior mean variance (PMV) divided by PMV + average posterior variance. However, our approach also provides credible intervals, which are essential when sample sizes are small.
Alongside the preprint osf.io/h54k8 I've uploaded an example of how to calculate RMU with go/no-go task data, comparing RMU with split-half and test-retest reliability estimates www.bignardi.co.uk/8_bayes_reli... - more software support to come if there's demand.
New preprint with @rogierk.bsky.social@paulbuerkner.com - we introduce "relative measurement uncertainty" - a reliability estimation method that's applicable across a broad class of Bayesian measurement models (e.g., generative-, computational- and item response theory-models osf.io/h54k8
We ran 3 simulation studies to evaluate RMU's bias, accuracy and coverage (% of times the 95% credible intervals included the right answer) across linear factor, signal detection theory and reinforcement learning models. Results were good-to-great across studies and simulation conditions.
We also compared RMU to coefficient alpha and H (Study 1) and split-half reliability (Study 2). RMU generally had lower bias and error, as well as better coverage. However, the main benefit of RMU is that it can be applied across a wide range of Bayesian measurement models - unlike alpha.
New preprint with @rogierk.bsky.social@paulbuerkner.com - we introduce "relative measurement uncertainty" - a reliability estimation method that's applicable across a broad class of Bayesian measurement models (e.g., generative-, computational- and item response theory-models osf.io/h54k8
The intuition behind our method is that the amount of overlap between posteriors is important: in the example above, if the posteriors became significantly broader, we would be much more uncertain in each estimate and struggle to distinguish between participants, reducing reliability.
Our method involves taking two random draws (without replacement) from each subject's posterior and computes the correlation between draws. We repeat this process many times and use the distribution of correlations to calculate credible intervals or posterior probabilities (e.g., reliability > .70).
New preprint with @rogierk.bsky.social@paulbuerkner.com - we introduce "relative measurement uncertainty" - a reliability estimation method that's applicable across a broad class of Bayesian measurement models (e.g., generative-, computational- and item response theory-models osf.io/h54k8
While estimating reliability with questionnaires is straightforward, there are few methods when deriving individual differences from computational models. Thus, reliability is often poor for widely used computational measures when evaluated with retest data (e.g., pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36940888/ )
Our reliability method can be applied to most fitted Bayesian measurement models. In the example below, I've used a Bayesian signal detection model to estimate posterior distributions for each subject's performance on a go/no-go test. Each curve shows our certainty in each subject's estimate.