Bill Hare

Bill Hare

@billhare.bsky.social

Climate science, impacts, policy and 1.5C

1.4K followers308 following214 posts

The new Climate Action Tracker update on Canada is alarming. What has shocked me the most and may come as a big surprise to many is the way in which Mark Carney has steadily dismantled Canada‘s Climate policies to the point where he’s heading towards Trump level rollbacks. lnkd.in/p/d2RVBBae

lnkd.inCanada | Bill HareDonald Trump is setting an appalling benchmark for climate failure rolling back US Climate action and supporting fossil fuels. Mark Carney should be putting as much distance as possible between Cana...
Climate Action Tracker @climateactiontracker.org

Climate Action Tracker has just published what it views as two extremely disappointing country analyses: the US (Critically insufficient), and Canada (Highly insufficient), as both governments roll back climate policies. Read our analyses here: climateactiontracker.org/press/releas...

It’s quite a scandal when Adelaide airport cancels advertisements calling for a gas export tax when major shareholders have big interests in oil, gas, LNG, and support new gas such as Betaloo against all available climate science. How democratic is that? www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

theguardian.comAdelaide airport pulls ads from conservation groups but keeps gas and mining ads during ALP conferenceDigital billboards from environmental groups, targeting Labor MPs attending national conference, cancelled with airport stating they are ‘too political’

Very good article on solar Geoengineering is too dangerous. It’s a distraction from doing what needs to be done - phasing out fossil fuels. And it would leave the other CO2 problem, ocean acidification to run rampant. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

theguardian.com‘Termination shock’: trust our expert warnings on geoengineering’s planetary risks | Raymond Pierrehumbert, Julia Slingo, Michael Mann and Valerie Masson-DelmotteDo we really want to play dice with our planet?

Bill Hare reposted

1/ The US–Israel war on Iran has once again put #EnergySecurity at the centre of geopolitical tensions. It is the third major shock to the global energy system this decade, exposing the vulnerabilities of fossil fuel-dependent economies. But this crisis is different.

Bill Hare reposted

Our submission to Australian Senate Select Committee on the Taxation on Gas Resources focussed on the importance of taxing export fossil gas in the need for Australia to decarbonise its economy to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5˚C limit. 🧵/n #auspol climateanalytics.org/publications...

climateanalytics.orgSubmission to the Australian Senate Select Committee on the Taxation…This submission mainly considers the climate implications of prospective changes to Australia’s gas and LNG taxation regime. It notes opportunities for Australia to achieve ambitious climate action wh...
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Government policies should tax gas exports to maximise public returns within a closing window for a profitable exploitation of Australia’s fossil fuel resources, including for the purpose of more quickly scaling up zero emission solutions.

Increased taxation of the gas industry, whether through a reformed resource rent regime or otherwise, would improve national capacity to enable and fund that transition.

Our submission to Australian Senate Select Committee on the Taxation on Gas Resources focussed on the importance of taxing export fossil gas in the need for Australia to decarbonise its economy to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5˚C limit. 🧵/n #auspol climateanalytics.org/publications...

climateanalytics.orgSubmission to the Australian Senate Select Committee on the Taxation…This submission mainly considers the climate implications of prospective changes to Australia’s gas and LNG taxation regime. It notes opportunities for Australia to achieve ambitious climate action wh...
View full thread

The growing ability of battery storage, grid transmission, and demand management technologies to affordably firm renewables further undercuts arguments in favour of fossil gas being critical to the energy transition.

Some of the Committee's questions reflected the gas industry's arguments that taxing it might deter long term investment. Our response: the fossil gas role in global energy systems will need to rapidly decline - that's if the world is to meet the agreed Paris Agreement goals.

Our submission to Australian Senate Select Committee on the Taxation on Gas Resources focussed on the importance of taxing export fossil gas in the need for Australia to decarbonise its economy to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5˚C limit. 🧵/n #auspol climateanalytics.org/publications...

climateanalytics.orgSubmission to the Australian Senate Select Committee on the Taxation…This submission mainly considers the climate implications of prospective changes to Australia’s gas and LNG taxation regime. It notes opportunities for Australia to achieve ambitious climate action wh...
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Our own modelling shows the volume of natural gas “needed”, rapidly declines with time, despite the claims of fossil gas industry members and supporters, who are promoting a sustained role for their product.

Fossil gas is increasingly substitutable in all sectors where it's used, and often more cost-competitive. In the power sector renewables are the cheapest form of new electricity generation in Australia and a growing cohort of other countries, even including system integration costs.

Our submission to Australian Senate Select Committee on the Taxation on Gas Resources focussed on the importance of taxing export fossil gas in the need for Australia to decarbonise its economy to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5˚C limit. 🧵/n #auspol climateanalytics.org/publications...

climateanalytics.orgSubmission to the Australian Senate Select Committee on the Taxation…This submission mainly considers the climate implications of prospective changes to Australia’s gas and LNG taxation regime. It notes opportunities for Australia to achieve ambitious climate action wh...

The IEA’s scenarios are widely regarded as credible, and its Net Zero Emissions scenario, cited in the Future Gas Strategy's Analytical Report, shows global gas demand falling by 78% between 2023 and 2050, alongside a projected halving of Australia's market share.

Bill Hare reposted

“Australia’s largest oil and gas company, Woodside, donated $53,775 to the Australian Labor Party and $40,140 to the Coalition prior to the 2025 Federal Election. Just 25 days after the election, the government conditionally approved extending the company’s North West Shelf LNG plant out to 2070.”

“Tamboran…donated $169,500 to both sides of politics ….Tamboran Resources plans to sell fracked gas to the NT government, and develop a major LNG project at the Middle Arm Sustainable Development Precinct in Darwin, which has been allocated $1.5 billion in equity by the Federal Labor Government.”

A commentary in @nature.com argues the 1.5°C temperature limit has “outlived its usefulness” because we’re headed towards overshoot and should be replaced by a “clean-energy shift” metric. That’s the wrong diagnosis. Here is why. www.nature.com/articles/d41...

nature.comAs we breach 1.5 °C, we must replace temperature limits with clean-energy targetsActionable goals are needed to guide the world towards what needs to happen most quickly: shifting economies to clean energy sources.
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Bottom line: Don’t confuse “hard” with “obsolete.” The world doesn’t need permission to lower ambition. It needs governments to implement what they already agreed—at the speed and scale that 1.5°C demands.

A commentary in @nature.com argues the 1.5°C temperature limit has “outlived its usefulness” because we’re headed towards overshoot and should be replaced by a “clean-energy shift” metric. That’s the wrong diagnosis. Here is why. www.nature.com/articles/d41...

nature.comAs we breach 1.5 °C, we must replace temperature limits with clean-energy targetsActionable goals are needed to guide the world towards what needs to happen most quickly: shifting economies to clean energy sources.
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In all this that should not be forgotten that since 2015, the Paris Agreement has provided quantified targets at national and global levels consistent with limiting warming as close as possible to 1.5°C.

And let us not forget that the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming limit remains the world’s enduring legal, political, and moral anchor for climate action – abandoning it would only deepen injustice for vulnerable communities already bearing the brunt of climate change.

A commentary in @nature.com argues the 1.5°C temperature limit has “outlived its usefulness” because we’re headed towards overshoot and should be replaced by a “clean-energy shift” metric. That’s the wrong diagnosis. Here is why. www.nature.com/articles/d41...

nature.comAs we breach 1.5 °C, we must replace temperature limits with clean-energy targetsActionable goals are needed to guide the world towards what needs to happen most quickly: shifting economies to clean energy sources.
View full thread

The Paris Agreement provides the basis to design critical clean energy benchmarks to limit overshoot as low as possible and get warming back below 1.5° by 2100. Without the 1.5C limit it is unlikely that the right benchmarks would be calculated or chosen.

Whilst “Clean-energy shift” can be a useful slogan it can’t replace the temperature limit and by itself generate the time bound actionable targets needed to protect us from dangerous climate change.

A commentary in @nature.com argues the 1.5°C temperature limit has “outlived its usefulness” because we’re headed towards overshoot and should be replaced by a “clean-energy shift” metric. That’s the wrong diagnosis. Here is why. www.nature.com/articles/d41...

nature.comAs we breach 1.5 °C, we must replace temperature limits with clean-energy targetsActionable goals are needed to guide the world towards what needs to happen most quickly: shifting economies to clean energy sources.
View full thread

This scenario shows the time bound actionable targets needed globally to strictly limit overshoot and reduce warming below 1.5° by 2100. For example, renewables capacity needs to grow significantly, with a 3.5-fold increase by 2030 – ahead of the global tripling goal agreed at COP28.

On geoengineering: the push for risky interventions grows because of delayed action not because of the 1.5oC limit. The answer is not to abandon 1.5°C—it’s to act fast enough so we don’t drift into an “anything goes” approach unguided by what we need to protect ourselves from and call it pragmatism.

A commentary in @nature.com argues the 1.5°C temperature limit has “outlived its usefulness” because we’re headed towards overshoot and should be replaced by a “clean-energy shift” metric. That’s the wrong diagnosis. Here is why. www.nature.com/articles/d41...

nature.comAs we breach 1.5 °C, we must replace temperature limits with clean-energy targetsActionable goals are needed to guide the world towards what needs to happen most quickly: shifting economies to clean energy sources.
View full thread

This work shows how to minimize overshoot and return to well below 1.5°C by 2100 with renewables, electrification, efficiency, methane cuts, deforestation reduction—reaching net zero around ~2060 if governments deliver.

In terms of a clean energy shift this highest possible ambition scenario shows that global electricity generation needs to quadruple by 2050, with wind and solar supplying over 90% of electricity demand by then. Fossil fuels would be effectively phased out shortly afterwards.

A commentary in @nature.com argues the 1.5°C temperature limit has “outlived its usefulness” because we’re headed towards overshoot and should be replaced by a “clean-energy shift” metric. That’s the wrong diagnosis. Here is why. www.nature.com/articles/d41...

nature.comAs we breach 1.5 °C, we must replace temperature limits with clean-energy targetsActionable goals are needed to guide the world towards what needs to happen most quickly: shifting economies to clean energy sources.
View full thread

A commentary in @nature.com argues the 1.5°C temperature limit has “outlived its usefulness” because we’re headed towards overshoot and should be replaced by a “clean-energy shift” metric. That’s the wrong diagnosis. Here is why. www.nature.com/articles/d41...

nature.comAs we breach 1.5 °C, we must replace temperature limits with clean-energy targetsActionable goals are needed to guide the world towards what needs to happen most quickly: shifting economies to clean energy sources.
View full thread

The Paris 1.5° limit provided the rigorous basis for @cop28.bsky.social in 2023 to agree 1.5C aligned clean energy targets - tripling renewables, doubling efficiency, reductions in methane and deforestation by 2030, and transition away from fossil fuels. www.cop28.com/en/global-re...

cop28.comCOP28: Global Renewables And Energy Efficiency PledgeRead the Global Renewables and Efficiency Pledge. Global leaders unite to transition away from unabated fossil fuels to meet Paris Agreement goals by 2030.

These climate targets provide the tools to design the critical time bound benchmarks for a clean energy shift to limit overshoot as low as possible and get warming back below 1.5° by 2100. Without this framework there is not real anchor for these benchmarks.

A commentary in @nature.com argues the 1.5°C temperature limit has “outlived its usefulness” because we’re headed towards overshoot and should be replaced by a “clean-energy shift” metric. That’s the wrong diagnosis. Here is why. www.nature.com/articles/d41...

nature.comAs we breach 1.5 °C, we must replace temperature limits with clean-energy targetsActionable goals are needed to guide the world towards what needs to happen most quickly: shifting economies to clean energy sources.
View full thread

Overshoot management isn’t “wait until 2100 and see,” as the article suggests. The Paris Agreement climate goals provide the indispensable scientific basis for what benchmarks for clean energy, energy efficiency, methane reductions and deforestation action are needed and by when.

Since 2015 the Paris Agreement climate goals have provided the basis quantified renewable energy, energy, efficiency, methane reductions, and deforestation benchmarks at national and global level consistent with limiting warming as close as possible to 1.5°C. climateanalytics.org/comment/the-...

climateanalytics.orgThe Paris Agreement is working. Ten years later, the world needs to…Whether the Agreement ultimately succeeds depends on whether political leaders and their governments have the courage to close the ambition gap, phase out fossil fuels, scale up finance for a just tra...

A commentary in @nature.com argues the 1.5°C temperature limit has “outlived its usefulness” because we’re headed towards overshoot and should be replaced by a “clean-energy shift” metric. That’s the wrong diagnosis. Here is why. www.nature.com/articles/d41...

nature.comAs we breach 1.5 °C, we must replace temperature limits with clean-energy targetsActionable goals are needed to guide the world towards what needs to happen most quickly: shifting economies to clean energy sources.

We all agree we need actionable targets to guide policy. But here is the big thing: The Paris Agreement’s climate goals - the1.5oC limit and net zero in 2nd half of the century - provide the essential and critical legal and scientific basis for what clean energy targets are needed and by when.

It's difficult to fathom what the WA Envtl "Protection" Agency doesn’t understand abt the climate problem. Wilfully & deliberately authorising a massive gas development in this pristine environment must only be viewed as institutionalised climate denial. reneweconomy.com.au/massive-new-...

reneweconomy.com.auMassive new Kimberley fracking industry could keep Woodside gas plant going until 2070Federal Labor's light touch environmental review of a massive new fracking industry threatens one of Australia’s most iconic wild places – and blows out national emissions.