Gavin Schmidt

Gavin Schmidt

@climateofgavin.bsky.social

Climate scientist, juggler. Bikes etc. Blogging at https://www.realclimate.org - data visualization, explainers, and debunking.

38.8K followers835 following1.9K posts

Gavin Schmidt reposted

Katie Mack
@astrokatie.com

A reminder, because it is almost that time of year: More children are killed by cars on Halloween than any other day of the year, by far. www.vox.com/future-perfe... If you're a parent, I hope you'll do what you can to keep kids safe. If you're driving on Saturday, PLEASE exercise extra caution.

Gavin Schmidt reposted

Dr. Genevieve Guenther (she/they)
@doctorvive.bsky.social

“Severe heat killed more than 50,000 people in European cities and towns this summer, according to peer-reviewed estimates released by scientists in London on Friday.” www.nytimes.com/2026/10/22/c...

nytimes.comHeat Waves Killed an Estimated 50,000 in European Cities, a Likely Record (Gift Article)This summer’s heat was the continent’s deadliest by far this century, according to new peer-reviewed estimates.

Gavin Schmidt reposted

Brad Lander
@bradlander.bsky.social

The Israeli Foreign Ministry is lying. No coordination was required, and we were never told that it was. We were not in a restricted security area. We did not pass any checkpoints.

Gavin Schmidt
@climateofgavin.bsky.social

Just to give some kudos to my hoster (opalstack) who patched the php bugs without any fuss and let everyone know this morning that there was nothing they needed to do. Thx!

Gavin Schmidt
@climateofgavin.bsky.social

This is a strange article (as is the 1960 paper to which it refers).

Rebecca Sear@rebeccasear.bsky.social

“The model was not wrong mathematically, but it was historically contingent. The difficulty was elevating transient demographic changes into timeless universal laws. Unlike physical laws, social patterns are generally shaped by changing circumstances” www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

science.orgDemographic “doomsday” misses the markA dire prediction published in Science in 1960 anticipated a population singularity in 2026—we are not even close
View full thread
Gavin Schmidt
@climateofgavin.bsky.social

Scientists always get to choose their models (of which there are an infinite number). So no model prediction has automatic validity - particularly ones that predict singularities! The test is in their predictions out-of-sample.

Gavin Schmidt
@climateofgavin.bsky.social

Particularly now, when machine learning can build near-perfect fits to huge datasets, the accuracy of the match to the in-sample data is absolutely no guarantee of out-of-sample skill. True in 1960, today, and tomorrow. (This is a prediction for which there is voluminous supporting evidence!)

Gavin Schmidt
@climateofgavin.bsky.social

This is a strange article (as is the 1960 paper to which it refers).

Rebecca Sear@rebeccasear.bsky.social

“The model was not wrong mathematically, but it was historically contingent. The difficulty was elevating transient demographic changes into timeless universal laws. Unlike physical laws, social patterns are generally shaped by changing circumstances” www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

science.orgDemographic “doomsday” misses the markA dire prediction published in Science in 1960 anticipated a population singularity in 2026—we are not even close
View full thread
Gavin Schmidt
@climateofgavin.bsky.social

Sure, one can play what if games. One has a sense that the 1960 paper was slightly tongue in cheek(?) - we might all be squeezed to death by 2026! But this week’s retrospective has none of that & seems to imply that the correctness of the the maths makes up for the obvious inapplicability.

Gavin Schmidt
@climateofgavin.bsky.social

There are echos here of the folks that in 2012 were predicting the disappearance of Arctic sea ice based on exponential fits to the data (famously based on no physics). These were identifiably wrong at the time-not because of the maths or the subsequent failure, but due to the overly simple model.

Gavin Schmidt
@climateofgavin.bsky.social

This is a strange article (as is the 1960 paper to which it refers).

Rebecca Sear@rebeccasear.bsky.social

“The model was not wrong mathematically, but it was historically contingent. The difficulty was elevating transient demographic changes into timeless universal laws. Unlike physical laws, social patterns are generally shaped by changing circumstances” www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

science.orgDemographic “doomsday” misses the markA dire prediction published in Science in 1960 anticipated a population singularity in 2026—we are not even close
View full thread
Gavin Schmidt
@climateofgavin.bsky.social

But we know (and we knew in 1960) that if things cannot continue because of physical constraints, they will not continue. Elevating mathematical correctness of a model fit over recognizing that all models have limited domains of applicability is just… strange.

Gavin Schmidt
@climateofgavin.bsky.social

This isn’t to say that demographers in 1960 should have been able to accurately predict the present day demographic transitions (a function of easily available birth control, women’s education, economic and social expectations, etc), but they shouldn’t have taken seriously these extrapolations.

Gavin Schmidt
@climateofgavin.bsky.social

This is a strange article (as is the 1960 paper to which it refers).

Rebecca Sear@rebeccasear.bsky.social

“The model was not wrong mathematically, but it was historically contingent. The difficulty was elevating transient demographic changes into timeless universal laws. Unlike physical laws, social patterns are generally shaped by changing circumstances” www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

science.orgDemographic “doomsday” misses the markA dire prediction published in Science in 1960 anticipated a population singularity in 2026—we are not even close
Gavin Schmidt
@climateofgavin.bsky.social

Whether a model of anything is ‘mathematically correct’ (I.e. the result of putting numbers into the model gives the published result) is a very low bar. The more relevant test is whether there are any real conditions under which the choice of model is realistic - even for some limited domain.

Gavin Schmidt
@climateofgavin.bsky.social

The problem with modeling the real world with unmodified exponential or super-exponential functions is that there are singularities built into your assumptions from the start - they cannot be avoided, only delayed.

Gavin Schmidt reposted

(((Tendar)))
@tendar.bsky.social

The Telegraph obtained information that it was Elon Musk’s idea to reduce the maximum speed of Starlink-controlled (interceptor-) drones in Ukraine, then got cold feet that this might backfire on Starlink in the European market and then finally blamed Trump for this episode.

Gavin Schmidt reposted

Quanta Magazine
@quantamagazine.org

In the early 1900s, Emmy Noether explored the mathematical consequences of symmetries. In doing so, she shook the very foundations of fundamental physics. https://www.quantamagazine.org/how-noethers-theorem-revolutionized-physics-20250207/

quantamagazine.orgHow Noether's Theorem Revolutionized Physics | Quanta MagazineEmmy Noether showed that fundamental physical laws are just a consequence of simple symmetries. A century later, her insights continue to shape physics.

Gavin Schmidt reposted

All Our Yesterdays
@allouryesterdays.bsky.social

Interview with @amywestervelt.bsky.social of Drilled abt her new book– “these strategies were really concocted to help all industries and companies avoid regulation and get around democracy in a variety of ways.” Pls read, comment, share in your networks! allouryesterdays.info/2026/10/14/i...

allouryesterdays.infoInterview with Amy Westervelt - "these strategies were really concocted to help all industries and companies avoid regulation and get around democracy in a variety of ways." - All Our YesterdaysAmy Westervelt, of Drilled (etc!) kindly agreed to an interview about her new book, Brought to You By: How Corporations Warped the Truth, Conned the Public, and Broke Democracy, 1. Who are you? Where ...

Gavin Schmidt reposted

Pavel
@spavel.bsky.social

In the vein of "public libraries could never be created today," a pitch for a calculator would get you thrown out of the boardroom. What do you mean, it just maths? Where are the ads supposed to go? How does it send usage telemetry back if it doesn't even have wifi? There isn't even a leaderboard.

This post is unavailable.

Gavin Schmidt reposted

All Our Yesterdays
@allouryesterdays.bsky.social

October 8, 1958 – “CO2 has begun to come home, hasn’t it?” writes Gordon Manley to Guy Callendar... allouryesterdays.info/2024/10/07/o...

allouryesterdays.infoOctober 8, 1958 - “CO2 has begun to come home, hasn’t it?” - All Our YesterdaysSixty-six years ago today (October 8th, 1958) British meteorologist Gordon Manley wrote to his friend, steam engineer Guy Callendar, who had – for the past twenty-plus years had been banging on about ...

Gavin Schmidt reposted

US CLIVAR
@usclivar.bsky.social

Join us on October 27 at 11:00 AM ET for the 6th webinar in the Usable Climate Risk Science series! This month we will hear from Ted Shepherd (University of Reading) and Conor Meenan (Centre for Disaster Protection). Missed a previous webinar? Catch up here: youtube.com/playlist?lis...

Gavin Schmidt reposted

Phil PlAIt
@philplait.bsky.social

Goddammit. The contempt these people have for everything wondrous and good and *human* is so grotesque.

Feena van@feenavan2099.bsky.social

"Before Stonehenge was raised, before Egypts first pyramid broke ground,before the Nazca people drew their famous lines across the Peruvian desert,someone in what is now southern Arizona shaped a 272-foot fish into the earth On April 23,2026,"a border-wall contractor drove heavy equipment across it"

gadgetreview.comTrump's Border Wall Construction Destroys 6,500-Year-Old Arizona Geoglyph – Older Than StonehengeArizona's 6,500-year-old Las Playas Intaglio, the oldest dated geoglyph in the Americas, was irreparably damaged by border wall construction in April 2026.

Gavin Schmidt reposted

Jennifer Ouellette
@jenlucpiquant.bsky.social

Enraging. Agency Diverted $1.4 Billion in Science Funds Mandated by Congress. The move, affecting about one-fifth of the National Science Foundation’s primary research budget, is the latest sign of how the White House is asserting more control over grants. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/02/u...

nytimes.comNational Science Foundation Diverted $1.4 Billion in Science Funds Mandated by CongressThe move, affecting about one-fifth of the National Science Foundation’s primary research budget, is the latest sign of how the White House is asserting more control over grants.

Gavin Schmidt reposted

Patrick Meighan
@patsweetpat.bsky.social

Replying to @patsweetpat.bsky.social

HOLY CRAP, YOU GUYS, THEY DID FIND IT!!! (no soft pretzel, though) www.instagram.com/reel/Dd4epJb...

instagram.comSenate In Session on Instagram: "We found the receipts. . . . . . @senericschmitt #jacksmith #proof #senate #hawkeyes #womenscollegebasketball"2,153 likes, 182 comments - senateinsession on September 29, 2026: "We found the receipts. . . . . . @senericschmitt #jacksmith #proof #senate #hawkeyes #womenscollegebasketball".

Gavin Schmidt reposted

J Mark Dodds FRSA
@jmarkdodds.bsky.social

Replying to @climateofgavin.bsky.social

SPEAKING of @camraofficial.bsky.social and beer fans' success against big corporate - you'll be interested to see how social data scientist @laurenleek.eu exposed the #GreatBritishPubcoScam masterfully The data don't lie: BEER NEEDS PUBS laurenleek.substack.com/p/britain-lo...

laurenleek.substack.comBritain Lost 14,000 Third Places. They Were Called Pubs. Is Your Local Next?How private equity reshaped the local and the postcode tool that shows the pubs most at risk.

Gavin Schmidt reposted

Paul Voosen
@voosen.me

New Horizons is now *three days away* from shutting off its two heliophysics instruments, simply because NASA has not provided the $2M in funding it had promised to the mission last year or this year. There is no science basis for shutting these off. Our earlier coverage:

science.orgNASA’s New Horizons mission may shut down two instruments over lack of fundingDecision risks “incalculable loss” of data from the edge of the Sun’s influence, scientists say