Brian McNoldy

Another new record high tide occurred on Sunday in Miami (the 4th record in the past 5 days), and the previous record was crushed by 7.6 inches... it was set in 2015.

An update to the preliminary model track and intensity verification for Typhoon Champi, which is just making landfall in Taiwan. JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) is the official forecast, then I grouped my selection of models by type.

Today is the 3rd consecutive day with a record high tide in #Miami, and the third consecutive day when the water level exceeded the moderate flooding threshold. #KingTides

Today's daily record will be broken by about 9 inches, an absurdly huge margin any time of year, but especially during King Tide season when records are harder to break.

Typhoon #Champi is still headed toward Taiwan, though looks likely to scrape by to the north. Here's an updated look at the preliminary track verification stats. JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) is the official forecast shown in red.

Typhoon #Champi is big, like really big. Tropical storm force winds extend an average of 300 miles out from the center. That is roughly the size of Texas. When Irma hit Florida in 2017, its tropical storm force winds extended about 230 miles from the center, and that was a very large hurricane.

Typhoon #Champi is still headed toward Taiwan, though looks likely to scrape by to the north. Here's an updated look at the preliminary track verification stats. JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) is the official forecast shown in red.

The coastal flooding outlook is dire for Florida's east coast in the coming days. Days of persistent onshore winds will be perfectly aligned to overlap with the full moon on the 26th and perigee on the 28th. #KingTide #Miami #Florida @miamirosenstiel.bsky.social

The two charts in the first part of the thread show the daily maximum tide level at Lake Worth (Palm Beach) and Virginia Key (Miami), as forecast by our tide model driven by the ECMWF ensemble.

The coastal flooding outlook is dire for Florida's east coast in the coming days. Days of persistent onshore winds will be perfectly aligned to overlap with the full moon on the 26th and perigee on the 28th. #KingTide #Miami #Florida @miamirosenstiel.bsky.social

Here's a preliminary look at track verification for Super Typhoon #Champi in the West Pacific. I selected a variety of models, but the ones I'll point out specifically are two AI models: AIFI (pale green) is the European Centre's AI model and GDMI (pink) is Google's Deepmind model...

A brief guide to tide predictions, King Tide season, and "smart" tide forecasts since this topic is going to get a lot of attention in the coming 1-2 weeks:

The second chart shows that average seasonal cycle derived from 32 years of data in Miami. 3) The ocean and atmosphere aren't always the same as climatology of course...

A brief guide to tide predictions, King Tide season, and "smart" tide forecasts since this topic is going to get a lot of attention in the coming 1-2 weeks:

So add ~0.54 feet to those predictions in Miami (it's not the same everywhere). That gets you to the first chart that I shared back in early January; the NOAA tide predictions plus a sea level rise adjustment.

A brief guide to tide predictions, King Tide season, and "smart" tide forecasts since this topic is going to get a lot of attention in the coming 1-2 weeks:

Based on our ECMWF-ensemble-based tide forecast made on Tuesday morning for #Miami, there's a 50% probability that 5 daily record high tide records will be broken in the coming 10 days, and a 25% probability that 7 will be broken (the three days that don't make it are Oct 20, 21, 24). #KingTides

Now available in its final formatted version in the October edition of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society: "Visualizing Weather Risks: Participatory Design Workshops for Hurricane Threats and Impacts Graphics". The project and the team have been such a highlight of my career.

The October run of the NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble) continues to predict a record-strong El Niño for the Sep-Oct-Nov timeframe, and then strengthening some more beyond that to a peak at the Oct-Nov-Dec value. The forecast peak is 0.42°C above the previous record in DJF 1982-83! 🤯

The ocean heat content averaged over the Gulf of Mexico has been below average since June, but Isaias really zapped it and the values are plummeting...