Jonathan Erdman

I have a few updating radar loops of Very Severe Cyclone #Arnab headed for landfall in India: bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/

The approach of Cat. 4 equivalent Cyclone Arnab to eastern India today, as seen in the IMD radar from Visakhapatnam. Strongest to hit eastern India since Fani in April 2019. 📡 imagery kudos: @bmcnoldy.bsky.social

Looking forward to tonight's ALCS Game 4, if anything to see the adventure each fly ball may be given strong north winds in Cleveland, much less any chance of showers.

Soon to be Typhoon Champi forecast to rapidly intensify as it tracks near or over Guam this weekend.

In addition to some "first frosts & freezes" for some in the Midwest and Northeast this weekend, some record cold highs Saturday in upstate New York & the Champlain Valley. Bundle up if you're leaf peeping this weekend.

100% would buy one of these shirts. Is there anyone else most deserving of #mlb comeback player of the year? #thisismycrew #brewtober

Only 6 times since 1872 has the Twin Cities reached 90˚ in October. Two of those times were both days this past weekend, including their record latest in fall 90˚ high. Par for the course in what has been America's record warmest year-to-date in 132 years.

Preliminary track verification statistics for #Isaias show that the Google Deepmind model dominated the model guidance by a huge margin. The National Hurricane Center closely and wisely followed it. Details at bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2026/10/isai...

Peeking under the central dense overcast, microwave satellite imagery allows us to see Isaias' core. These images were taken this AM. Credit: NOAA/CIRA

Isaias already crushed a "latest first" record. Now we could set another record as the 2026 Atlantic "hurricane" season may have double entendre.

So, the easy fix is to swap Padres-Brewers into the afternoon slot (low 60s and sunny) and move the Dodger game to the evening. Still, a brutal heat wave in SoCal. weather.com/us/californi...

Some "first frosts/freezes" early next week in the Great Lakes and interior Northeast. Welcome to October!

We're already over two weeks beyond the previous record longest wait for the first Atlantic hurricane of the season. Now with both Fay and Gonzalo on the struggle bus, it looks like we'll have a rare "0 for September" for Atlantic hurricanes.

You know it's a strong El Niño when season-to-date ACE in the eastern half of the Pacific has now exceeded that of the western Pacific.

NWS is forecasting the highest storm tide of the nor'easter in about an hour or so, from the Jersey shore to the northern Outer Banks.

Parts of the Virginia Tidewater have already seen at least minor coastal flooding (in MLLW, per NWS site) for 5 high tides through Friday AM. Four more high tide cycles to go with this nor'easter at least through Sunday AM.

Not every day you see a mention of rainfall flood threat from an active tropical storm in an NHC forecast for parts of western Africa (though tropical waves can dump heavy rain). Not too many NNW'ward tracks just off Africa in the NOAA database, either, for "Cabo Gonzalo".

History in the making? NOAA's database has only one other Cat. 3+ hurricane within 150 miles (statute) of Hawaii's Big Island: August 1959's Dot. Your move, Nolo.

Certainly not the only reason, but there is a deep, warm "bubble" of ocean water near where Hurricane Polo rapidly intensified, per this CIRA analysis.

With an El Niño as strong as this, there are some things to keep in mind as you plan your winter getaway travel.

Through Wednesday, Dallas-Ft. Worth tallied 13 straight days with highs of 100˚ or hotter. By far the longest such streak entirely in Sept. in their recorded history. Most prior streaks have been a July or August thing, there.

Record hottest first half of September tied or set for almost four dozen major reporting stations from the central and southern Rockies to the Southeast. Includes Austin, Dallas, Denver and Nashville. (Data: SERCC)

We've arrived in the middle of September. Average Atlantic season hurricane pace this week: 4 2026 Atlantic hurricane count, so far: 0

The season's NFL schedule is the most potentially weather compelling I've seen in years. My potential favorite games👇

Record low Atlantic ACE pace in satellite era is more typical of the second week of July, not second week of September. Only 2 Atlantic seasons since WWII have failed to produce a single September hurricane. Perspective on the slumbering 👇

Heads up to those visiting Glacier and Yellowstone NPs this weekend. Some snow is possible generally above 7,000 feet elevation. Otherwise, a chilly rain at lower elevations.

In the era satellites have fully covered the Atlantic Basin, we haven't seen as quiet a start as 2026. Thanks, El Niño.

The multi-model ensemble mean trend for Hurricane Lowell continues. This loop from @burgwx.bsky.social shows the last six runs, starting with Monday morning's run in yellow, to the most recent run in white. Interests in the W. Hawaiian islands need to monitor the forecast closely.

Hurricane Lowell now analyzed at Cat. 5 intensity as of 18Z best track estimate. Estimated 927 mb pressure nearly matches strongest of 2026 so far (Genevieve was 925 mb at peak). Images: @cyclonicwx.bsky.social

Today makes 2 weeks since Lala first formed. Almost made it to the Int'l Dateline. Today will make at least 61 main forecast advisories from NHC, and other intermediates when it was near Hawaii.

We see this sometimes in hurricane season. Hostile conditions farther east, but then more favorable conditions (esp. lower wind shear) farther west. May have to watch the Bermuda Triangle later next week with current "96L". And despite El Niño, it will be early September. 🧐

Can't wait for fall? Some frosts and freezes this AM in the U.P., northern Wisconsin and Minnesota's Arrowhead. 🥶

How weird are two tropical cyclones in about a week's time in Hawaii? (and we highlight two other weird "back-to-backs" this century)

We asked tropical mets and other weather fans to make out their top US hurricane list. A clear "Mt. Rushmore" emerged.

By one metric, it's now the least active start to an Atlantic hurricane season in almost 40 years. #ThanksElNino

Weird NHC Atlantic 7-day tropical outlook for August 21 featuring 2 areas in subtropics and zilch in the Niño-squashed main development region.

Can't wait for fall? How about a weekend in the northern Great Lakes? 🍂

Invest 90E is starting to consolidate its convection and is increasingly likely to become the next tropical storm in the next few days. Question is how close does it track to the Big Island of Hawaii Sunday, still recovering from Lala's destructive flash flooding last weekend.

Welp...unless there's a drastic, unanticipated change, the score appears to be: - El Niño: 2 - Main development region: 0

In almost three decades following US weather, this may be the most bizarre tornado record I've seen, with all the usual tornado inflation caveats. Given their past history in fall, even early winter, they have a real shot at this national record.

It's not every day you see the nation's high temperature in Kansas. 113˚ in Medicine Lodge, near the Oklahoma border. Also some 110s in northwest Oklahoma, per OK mesonet. Oh...and Utqiagvik, AK (America's northernmost town) had a daily record high (70˚).

Over the past 48 hours, it appears eastern Indiana was hit by 5 separate rounds of t-storm clusters. No wonder the flooding.

Latest weekly rONI OISST values show our current El Niño has now leapfrogged 1997's El Niño pace. Unlike the other super Niños, we were in a La Niña less than 5 months ago.

Interesting battle between some of the physics-based models and AI models regarding future #Lala and Hawaii this weekend. Good test for Google DeepMind.

Tropical weather fans, hurricane experts: What's your "Mt. Rushmore" of US hurricanes? I think the top 2 are pretty straightforward. But narrowing down the last 2 is much more challenging. 🤔

The snoozing Atlantic hurricane season is off to its slowest start (by ACE index) in 17 years. 2009 had its first storm, then a major hurricane in mid-August.

Interesting to see the still relatively high PM10 levels in Phoenix this morning following last night's haboob. Could be more blowing dust (another haboob) this evening?

All the "1s" on this map from the SERCC show cities with their hottest year-to-date, or a tie through late July. Includes: Phoenix, Las Vegas and Salt Lake City.