Brian Sapient

Weekly Market Status 🧵 #econsky Figures as of Friday, Oct 23, after the close. Markets stayed cautious a second week. My health score rose from -28 to -21 (on a -100 to +100 scale), 2 points shy of Neutral. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% after last week’s 2.0% drop. Its longer trend holds. $VOO

Most buys were dips in quality names in uptrends: Frontline, Liquidity Services, Oscar Health, GigaCloud, large biotech, oil & gas producers, Genesco. The exception: intermediate bonds, a deep-dip buy on a broken chart, maybe a dead-cat bounce. $FRO $LQDT $OSCR $GCT $IBB $IEO $GCO $BIV #econsky

Weekly Market Status 🧵 #econsky Figures as of Friday, Oct 23, after the close. Markets stayed cautious a second week. My health score rose from -28 to -21 (on a -100 to +100 scale), 2 points shy of Neutral. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% after last week’s 2.0% drop. Its longer trend holds. $VOO

So what did I do? Very few moves, for me (not advice). I may have missed the best place to sell, I’m allocated enough for this tenuous tape, and I didn’t chase long entries. Chatter is about the election, including investors pricing in an Iran escalation right after the midterms. #econsky

Weekly Market Status 🧵 #econsky Figures as of Friday, Oct 23, after the close. Markets stayed cautious a second week. My health score rose from -28 to -21 (on a -100 to +100 scale), 2 points shy of Neutral. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% after last week’s 2.0% drop. Its longer trend holds. $VOO

Rates gave stocks some help. The 10-year yield fell 11 bp to 4.988%, a third straight weekly drop, and its 13-week rise cooled to 30 bp, clearing my rate-shock reading. The last 2-year print was 4.77%, and markets still price in rate hikes. $TNX #econsky

Weekly Market Status 🧵 #econsky Figures as of Friday, Oct 23, after the close. Markets stayed cautious a second week. My health score rose from -28 to -21 (on a -100 to +100 scale), 2 points shy of Neutral. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% after last week’s 2.0% drop. Its longer trend holds. $VOO

Not everything was defensive, though. Small caps beat the S&P by 2.4%, homebuilders by 5.1% and regional banks by 4.0%, and the average stock beat the index a 3rd week. 3 of 12 short-term gauges now read healthy (0 last week), but the short-term regime stays risk-off. $VTWO $ITB $KRE $RSP #econsky

Weekly Market Status 🧵 #econsky Figures as of Friday, Oct 23, after the close. Markets stayed cautious a second week. My health score rose from -28 to -21 (on a -100 to +100 scale), 2 points shy of Neutral. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% after last week’s 2.0% drop. Its longer trend holds. $VOO

Fear eased, but only on the week. The VIX dipped 2.7% to 19.5, yet finished strong after a three-day cool and is up 31% over four weeks. It’s breaking out of a 1-day squeeze to the upside, with squeezes stacked on multiple timeframes behind it, signaling more energy to release. $VIX #econsky

Weekly Market Status 🧵 Figures as of the close on Friday, Oct 16. The market turned more cautious this week. My health score slid from +14 to -28 (on a -100 to +100 scale), from Neutral to Mildly Protective, as the S&P 500 fell 2.0%. Its longer-term trend still passes 3 of 4 checks. $VOO #econsky

My own moves (not advice): Monday I trimmed emerging markets, including Korea and Taiwan. I didn’t open a single bullish option. I did start positions in Reinsurance Group of America and Frontline, and added to Keysight. $FLKR $FLTW $RGA $FRO $KEYS #econsky

Weekly Market Status 🧵 Figures as of the close on Friday, Oct 16. The market turned more cautious this week. My health score slid from +14 to -28 (on a -100 to +100 scale), from Neutral to Mildly Protective, as the S&P 500 fell 2.0%. Its longer-term trend still passes 3 of 4 checks. $VOO #econsky

Oil was the other big story. Crude rose 9.1%, its second straight weekly gain, and sits about 1% below its 52-week high. Energy, oil & gas producers and gas producers all moved into the leading group. One oddity: oil services’ weekly trend turned down anyway. $USO $VDE $XOP $FCG $OIH #econsky

Weekly Market Status 🧵 Figures as of the close on Friday, Oct 16. The market turned more cautious this week. My health score slid from +14 to -28 (on a -100 to +100 scale), from Neutral to Mildly Protective, as the S&P 500 fell 2.0%. Its longer-term trend still passes 3 of 4 checks. $VOO #econsky

The biggest drops were mostly recent high-flyers: generative AI -39 (91 to 52), South Korea -28, heavy robotics -27, security & defense tech -25 and momentum stocks -22. Generative AI and momentum both fell from leading to lagging. $CHAT $FLKR $IBOT $FITE $MTUM #econsky

Weekly Market Status 🧵 Figures as of the close on Friday, Oct 16. The market turned more cautious this week. My health score slid from +14 to -28 (on a -100 to +100 scale), from Neutral to Mildly Protective, as the S&P 500 fell 2.0%. Its longer-term trend still passes 3 of 4 checks. $VOO #econsky

Money moved to defense. Staples, health care and utilities averaged +3.1% while the S&P lost 2.0%, a second straight week of defensives winning. Growth paid for it: chips trailed the S&P by 8.5%, growth lagged value by 5.6%. $VDC $VHT $VPU $SMH $VUG $VTV #econsky

Weekly Market Status 🧵 Figures as of the close on Friday, Oct 16. The market turned more cautious this week. My health score slid from +14 to -28 (on a -100 to +100 scale), from Neutral to Mildly Protective, as the S&P 500 fell 2.0%. Its longer-term trend still passes 3 of 4 checks. $VOO #econsky

Market Status 🧵 #econsky As of Friday morning at 11 am: A quiet headline week hid a sharp shift underneath. The S&P 500 slipped about 1%, but the real story was where money moved: out of the AI and tech trade and into steadier, cash-generating corners of the market.

Biggest momentum gainers: global dividend payers, materials, Canada, the Dow 30, medical devices, staples, mid-cap value, and the equal-weight S&P, which beat the cap-weighted index by 2.1%. Breadth improved even as the largest names stumbled. #econsky

Market Status 🧵 #econsky As of Friday morning at 11 am: A quiet headline week hid a sharp shift underneath. The S&P 500 slipped about 1%, but the real story was where money moved: out of the AI and tech trade and into steadier, cash-generating corners of the market.

Healthcare $VHT, utilities $VPU and consumer staples $VDC gained about 3% on the week while the S&P fell 1%, their second straight week in front. Value stocks beat growth by 4.5%. Semiconductors $SMH trailed the broad market by nearly 8% in five sessions. #econsky