"How do you reconcile the disconnect between the vibes and the polling? What are your outcome scenarios? How do you rank them probabilistically?"
The Bulwark
The Bulwark
@thebulwark.com
Political analysis and reporting free of tribal prejudices. Sign up for our newsletters here: https://thebulwark.com/subscribe
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"It is a disturbing and shameful abandonment not only of a would-be ally in need, but of the best and noblest traditions of American foreign policy dating back centuries."
Our Founders understood that despite the relative success of their earlier efforts, the contest between liberty and despotism around the world—and even in the United States—had not ended. Let's not make them spin in their graves next Tuesday.
"Anyone committed to Ukraine’s freedom and sovereignty must be committed to stopping Trump."
"Imagine a mother who would run away—abandoning her children—because she chose a pedophile rapist over her own flesh and blood. And now imagine that woman slithering out from her hole to defame her daughter in the service of helping a cretin."
"I’ve never played a single game of baseball. Not once. Never even threw, or caught, a baseball until I was in college. I have no personal connection to the game....For me, the joy of baseball has been walking with my little boy as he grew."
@gtconway.bsky.social unloads on Trump, Vance, and Ramaswamy over the vile attack ad against Amy Acton. "These people are so infected with Trump's sociopathy that they actually turn down any possible opportunity they have to demonstrate to the world that they have any decency."
If you still happened to think that underneath the disgusting rhetoric there were constructive policies for sexual abuse victims, well....
"Republicans are showing, through their spending and use of Trump, what they think the state of play is. And it’s worse than they ever imagined it could get." Yet the polls suggest less dismal prospects. Which is right?
@johnlegend.bsky.social: "When Vivek Ramaswamy hears of an indicted child abuser who fled the state rather than face charges instead of siding with the victim. He takes the side of the abuser…Do we want a man with this sort of depraved moral compass to lead our state?"
They were preparing for the collapse of America. Instead, their own club is falling apart. A secretive far-right men's group is imploding over Trump, Israel, and the movement's growing extremist infighting. @willsommer.bsky.social dives into the ugly meltdown. lnk.thebulwark.com/4kobYDg?utm_...
Democrats are starting to prepare for what an unexpectedly large midterms win would mean - and demand - for 2028.
"Watching him stagger toward a humiliating midterm rebuke with his movement seemingly on the brink of collapse, I have to admit it’s hard to feel much pleasure about it all. Instead, I still mostly feel disgust and shame."
Early voting numbers are so troubling for Republicans that a prominent MAGA data analyst says she's afraid sharing them could hurt morale. @timmiller.bsky.social and @billkristolbulwark.bsky.social examine the Democratic turnout shifts and what they could mean for November.
Watch the full episode of The Bulwark Daily:
"We’re off to the races. Here are a handful of movies I have circled on my calendar as we hit the meaty part of awards season." ICYMI @sonnybunch.bsky.social:
"Nobody asks Mike Rogers why he’s part of a party where leaders seem so willing to impose their faith on society."
"'Wait until you see what we do next year,' border czar Tom Homan boasted earlier this month." Yeah. We can't wait.
"Relative to the disgusting Acton ad, most of these policy choices have gotten scant attention. But they all deliver the same closing message for the midterms: It was never about helping the kids." Let @crampell.bsky.social tell you what they are:
"Bankruptcies are up, suicides are up, but nevertheless, we have hope in this president." Kansas farmers are suffering under Trump's tariffs, and Sen. Roger Marshall's message is essentially to keep the faith. @timmiller.bsky.social & @billkristolbulwark.bsky.social call out the cultish insanity.
Watch the full episode of The Bulwark Daily:
The real challenge for Democrats in expanding the map for 2028 will be figuring out how to build up party infrastructure in more purple and red parts of the country. It would be a good problem to have.
How low is too low for Trump voters? Possibly, Ramaswamy's ad:
@willsommer.bsky.social on the MAGA influencers who flooded Serbia to back Aleksandar Vučić and changed their tune overnight: “I have a theory. The Serbian government didn’t buy them tickets back.”
Watch the full episode of MAGA Mondays with @samsteindc.bsky.social and Will Sommer:
"'The people that are making the most blatant comments about sharia appear to present it as if it’s something unified, something like the U.S. Constitution that you could apply 'sharia'—which, from a classical point of view, is really quite laughable.'"
"Here’s a serious question: When is the last time a Republican Senate candidate won a news cycle?"
@crampell.bsky.social on Trump encouraging Vivek Ramaswamy to continue running an ad that exploited the childhood abuse of his opponent: “It is loathsome…It reminds us of some of the other ways that this administration has hurt victims of domestic and sexual abuse.”
Trump’s deportation force is giving ordinary people new ways to threaten, torment, and punish their neighbors. And sadly, some of them are making the most of the opportunity.
Beyond that Amy Acton ad, "there are thousands of other children and domestic violence victims whose lives have been made materially worse by Trump policies—and, in most cases, for no obvious electoral advantage."
Guess who found himself in Brazil after Lula won re-election: Nick Shirley! @samsteindc.bsky.social is curious about who funded his trip: “Who paid for him to go to Brazil? I'm dying to know."
Watch the full episode of MAGA Mondays with Sam Stein and @willsommer.bsky.social:
For now, and probably for the next two years, the United States is as likely to be on the side of despotism as liberty. The struggle our Founding Fathers envisioned is still real, and close to home.