Andy Bruce (Reuters)

reuters.comExplainer: What is Andy Burnham's "Manchesterism" vision for the UK?Andy Burnham's return to parliament has made the Greater Manchester mayor the frontrunner to succeed Keir Starmer as prime minister, and with him comes "Manchesterism", his vision for Britain.

19 June

Explainer: What is Andy Burnham's "Manchesterism" vision for the UK? - www.reuters.com/world/uk/wha...

Andy Bruce (Reuters) reposted

Thomas Pope

@tompope.bsky.social

My latest below previews the fiscal devo roadmap. This could be a radical change in how mayors operate, and will tell us a lot about the government's broader approach to devolution My blog lays out what the roadmap should do

Institute for Government@instituteforgovernment.org.uk

Tomorrow, alongside his budget, John Healey will unveil a new fiscal devolution roadmap. The roadmap will reveal how radical the Burnham government intends to be on devolution. Our chief economist @tompope.bsky.social sets out his key tests www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/fisc...

instituteforgovernment.org.ukWhat should be in the fiscal devolution roadmap? | Institute for GovernmentThe fiscal devolution roadmap will set out changes to how mayors raise and spend money.

If anyone has the Budget and would like to send it my way, that'd be great

15h

First trip to Co-op Live tonight to see The Strokes. Absolutely belting on all fronts - band, venue, sound, beer, food, crowd. A great to the week!

15h

Last time I saw them was Leeds Festival in 2001.

New Liz Truss book doesn't disappoint. Thrust is blaming the Bank of England for the Sept 2022 market fallout, especially its quantitative tightening announcement the day before the mini-budget. She claims that she and Kwarteng were "caught off-guard", blindsided by the BoE's announcement.

🚨GLOBALISTS 🚨

Reflecting on her short time in office, Truss says it's better to remember it as proof of "how close I was to the target" rather than folly.

As I feared (see link), here Truss repeated the findings of the 2024 Bank of England research paper on the 2022 yield spike, omitting the key line on what triggered it (2nd image) bsky.app/profile/bruc...

Andy Bruce (Reuters)@bruceandy.bsky.social

You just know she will reference the BoE research paper that showed most of the 2022 yield spike was due to the LDI issues (which is true), while omitting the key line on the cause

Apologies to @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social, @chrisgiles.ft.com and @edconway.bsky.social - I'm afraid Liz Truss is on to you. In the next paragraph she goes on to praise the free-thinking Patrick Minford.

As for the BoE's diabolical, evil decision to sabotage the mini-budget by picking the day before to launch QT - that too is false. Timeline: • BoE had scheduled announcement for Sept 15 • Sept 9 (day after QEII died): BoE postpones to Sept 22 • Sept 15: Govt sets Sept 23 date for mini-budget

This bit is great. Here, Truss completely misunderstands a quote from BoE's Jon Cunliffe, who complained that the government didn't brief the details of the mini-budget to the BoE (as widely reported). Truss seems to think he was admitting that the BoE did not brief the government on QT 🫨

Truss attacks the BoE for choosing to launch QT the day before the mini-budget, without "any briefing on what it was planning". Which, as you will find in the next post, is hopelessly wrong.

As early as July 2022, BoE Governor Bailey earmarked September as the likeliest date for the QT announcement. And then the BoE announced it formally in August 2022 - trumpeting a September launch - with quite a lot of coverage in the financial news media! 👇

Sorry, let's just get this out the way. YOUR CHANCELLOR SIGNED THE FECKIN LETTER APPROVING THE BOE'S QT DECISION, LIZ. THE. DAY. BEFORE. THE. MINI-BUDGET. Jesus Christ.

That's the good stuff 🌧️⚽

@davidmilliken.bsky.social

Alas a 2-1 loss for the Silkmen, despite scoring an absolute worldie and playing much of the match with 9 men. Suspect there might be a problem with the hot water in the ref's room this afternoon

Andy Bruce (Reuters) reposted

David Milliken

Reuters has just published its pre-budget poll of bond dealers 💷 2026/27 gilt sales up £3.4 bln to £249.6 bln 💷 2026/27 T-bill sales up £5 bln to £10 bln 📉 Lowest share of long-dated gilt issuance since 1990 🏦 PSNB up ~£15 bln in 2026/27 and in 2027/28 🤕 Headroom £15 bln www.datawrapper.de/_/JZ4jj/

datawrapper.deUK bond dealers see £250 billion of 2026/27 gilt issuance | Created with DatawrapperLong-dated gilt issuance forecast to fall to lowest share since 1990

Mixed bag of UK data this morning. 🛍️ 1️⃣ GfK consumer confidence index dropped sharply - driven by economic morale and major purchase components. Scale of drop was unusual - only six months out of the last 52 years have been that bad. GfK cited combination of cost-of-living/inflation, Iran.

3️⃣ The S&P Global PMIs brought some good news. Both manufacturing and services readings came in much hotter than City economists had expected. More signs of resilience in the UK economy. Hiring picked up for the first time in yonks, although price pressures grew too.

Some companies reported pausing spending in run-up to the Budget - although @chris-williamson.bsky.social reckoned that could be grounds for more growth down the line once the Budget's out the way - given the "encouraging base" we have now.

Also worth noting that the inflation expectations component of the survey - which doesn't feed into the headline number - picked up to its highest since April.

2️⃣ Retail sales fell by 0.4% m/m in September - a bigger drop than expected. Inclined not to put too much weight on that (yet) as it could easily be revised away. For instance, the ONS revised up last September's reading by 0.9 percentage points!

20-year gilt yields at their lowest in a month, pretty much. On course for their best three days since June.

Andy Bruce (Reuters) reposted

Leading investors in British government bonds expect finance ⁠minister John Healey to succeed in avoiding stoking gilt market volatility in his October 28 budget, research firm Morningstar said on Wednesday.

BoE's Bailey references today's inflation print in an interview with OMFIF... but gotta be honest, didn't quite get his drift.

Bailey on Truss's new book:

Loving the rebrand

From the other day... S&P Global says its index of consumer sentiment has fallen to its lowest since July 2023. At first glance hard to square with, say, GfK's survey which has been riding high - but they are quite different surveys in terms of what they measure.

S&P's is like a PMI survey. It asks if things have got worse/better/same vs last month. Or if expectations for the year ahead have improved or worsened since last month. Whereas GfK asks how finances/economy have changed over last year, and how it will in the year ahead. Hence different results!

Two days before the Budget. Best news Healey has had in ages.

If this isn’t used as a prop during the Budget then what is parliament even for

@brokenbanker.bsky.social

You just know she will reference the BoE research paper that showed most of the 2022 yield spike was due to the LDI issues (which is true), while omitting the key line on the cause

Andy Bruce (Reuters) reposted

BrokenBanker

solid UK employment data, +13K in September and +102K 3M/3M ahead of expectations:

reuters.comMeta employees said Lula's accounts were hindered during Brazil election, Folha reportsMeta employees acknowledged in internal communications that the Instagram accounts of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva were hindered by ‌restrictions during the country's election, newsp...

Meta employees said Lula's accounts were hindered during Brazil election, Folha reports - www.reuters.com/world/americ...

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reuters.comEXCLUSIVE: Order to limit Starshield for Ukraine came from inside White House, sources sayThe order to limit a satellite system used by Ukraine for battlefield communications and drone operations came from inside the White House, according to two US officials and a Western official briefe...

I ran sprinting out the cinema (the Tatton in Gatley) at the scene where the witches unmask, onto the street and was almost run over. Got an absolute bollocking from my mum!

Andy Bruce (Reuters) reposted

Ian Smith

@iankmsmith.ft.com

there it is www.reuters.com/world/europe...

substack.comUK Growth - macro beats vibesyes it is inelegant to say “I told you so”, your point being?

Enjoyed reading this, a good reminder that beneath all the sentiment/chit-chat/rumour around the economy, there is a mechanical force at work.

Giles Wilkes@gilesyb.bsky.social

substack.com/@gileswilkes... The results are in, and I'm declaring a winner in the battle between Vibes and Macro as a means of assessing the UK economy. Don't be surprised.

Not sure I agree with everything in it (not just because I'm a purveyor of vibes-based economic intel!) but it's given me pause for thought. I liked the comparison to the 2012 "double-dip" that wasn't. I think you can stick H2 2016 in there too.

There's also some good mirror images of the "bad vibes doesn't equal bad GDP" argument. Post election "Trump Bump" of 2016/2017 - when US sentiment surveys rocketed in early 2017 - didn't materialise in the hard data. Nor did the "Boris Bounce" shortly before COVID hit.

Little bit of a dip in UK consumer confidence this month, now at a 5-month low according to LSEG/Ipsos survey

No particular driver - all the economic and personal finance sub-indexes slipped a wee bit.

Andy Bruce (Reuters) reposted

Owen Winter

@owenwntr.bsky.social

Donald Trump reaches a new low in our tracker of polling with YouGov www.economist.com/interactive/...

Little nugget from today's GDP release: UK manufacturing output hit a real-terms record high in August, topping its previous March 2024 peak.

reuters.comUK's Healey should rebuild fiscal headroom to about £15-16 billion, Reuters poll showsBritish finance minister John Healey should rebuild his depleted headroom against the fiscal rules to about £15-16 billion ($20-21 billion) at this month's budget to keep bond investors onside, a Reut...

British finance minister John Healey should rebuild his depleted headroom against the fiscal rules to about £15-16 billion ($20-21 billion) at this month's budget to keep bond investors onside, a Reuters poll of economists showed on Thursday. www.reuters.com/world/uk/uks...

Britain's economy keeps on growing, despite forecasts that it took a breather in August. 💥 GDP up 0.1% in Aug, against forecasts for a 0.1% drop 💥 Output now 2.1% higher y/y - biggest increase since Oct 2022 when it was bouncing back from COVID. 💥Exc. pandemic swings, biggest rise since Dec 2019

Unusually, manufacturing powered GDP growth in Aug when services output was flat (although still better than expected). Unexpected 1.2% surge in factory output was driven by pharma, which can be pretty volatile. So that was a slight one-off boost to GDP in Aug - but overall pic is resilience 💪

Here's the computer programming sector index from the Index of Services. Growing at 3-month annualised pace of 25%!