Bill McBride

New Home Sales Decrease to 676,000 Annual Rate in September Median New Home Price is Down 13% from the Peak due to Change in Mix calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-home-s...

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.1% year-over-year in August FHFA House Prices Up 2.4% Year-over-year in August calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/case-shill...

Newport Beach: king tide and Kelvin wave - luckily no surf today!

Economic Weekly October 23, 2026. economicweekly.substack.com/p/economic-w...

UMich: inflation expectations increasing. www.sca.isr.umich.edu "Consumer sentiment held steady this month ... Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked up from 4.6% last month to 4.7% this month. ... Long-run inflation expectations also stepped up from 3.4% in September to 3.5%"

Another Nice Drop For Rates, Now Near 1-Month Lows www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mort...

NMHC: “Apartment Market Conditions Weaken” in October Survey Refinancing Maturing Loans is a Concern calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nmhc-apart...

Bankruptcy Filings Increase 11.4 Percent www.uscourts.gov/data-news/ju... Business filings rose 12.5 percent, from 24,039 to 27,054 in the year ending Sept. 30, 2026. Non-business bankruptcy filings increased 11.4 percent to 594,057, compared with 533,337 in the previous year.

"In the week ending October 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 194,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 199,000 to 200,000."

Lawler: Update on MBS Yields and Spreads calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-upd...

“Architecture firm billings slump deepens” in September Multi-family billings negative for 48 of last 50 months calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/architectu...

High Frequency Data: Housing Slump Deepens Pending Home Sales Down 7.3% Year-over-year, Homebuilder Confidence Below Pandemic Low calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/high-frequ...

Pending Home Sales down 7.3% YoY. Way below expectations. www.nar.realtor/research-and... "Pending home sales decreased by 7.3% month over month in September and decreased by 11.3% year over year. Month over month pending home sales declined in all four major U.S. regions.."

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.221 million Annual Rate in September calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/housing-st...

www.mortgagenewsdaily.com

Goldman on housing: "Housing activity has remained rangebound in recent years.. In 2027, we expect the headwind from affordability—reignited by the recent rebound in mortgage rates—to increasingly dominate, weighing further on activity."

House Prices to Income New Data for 2025 National Average Wage Index Released last Week calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/house-pric...

Builder confidence lower than during pandemic! And more price cutting ... "The latest HMI survey found that 43% of builders cut prices in October, the highest share during the 2020-2026 period. The average price cut remained at 6% for the seventh consecutive month."

Builder Sentiment Falls on Rising Rates www.nahb.org/news-and-eco... "Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell three points to 29 in October ... The reading was the lowest since June 2012."

This is free to read Economic Weekly October 16, 2026 economicweekly.substack.com/p/economic-w...

Goldman: "Core import prices rose 0.8% in September, above expectations. ... We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.34% in September ... a year-over-year rate of +3.11%. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased 0.51% in September or increased 3.64% [YoY]."

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2026 calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-2-cur...

"Industrial production (IP) increased 0.7 percent in September after edging up 0.1 percent in August. ... Capacity utilization moved up to 76.9 percent in September, a rate that is 2.5 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2025) average." This was solidly above consensus

Mortgage rates: Another Big Improvement to Another 3 Week Low www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mort...

Goldman on Retail Sales “Core retail sales increased 0.1% in September, somewhat below expectations. …reading is consistent with our view that consumer spending growth is set to slow in 2026Q4, as the boost … from larger-than-usual tax refunds that supported spending earlier this year fades”

Goldman “Core producer prices increased more than expected in September, and the PPI components relevant for PCE were on net slightly stronger than our expectations. Based on details in the CPI and PPI reports, we estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.34% in September”

BofA: "While any single inflation report should be interpreted with caution, the recent data underscores the risks of signaling policy positions too early. That is why the Fed's recent dovish guidance ... left us puzzled. There is value in waiting to assess every data point before each meeting."

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2026 calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-1-cur...

BofA: "After the Sep PPI data, we have marked up our core PCE estimate from 0.32% to 0.34% m/m (3.1% y/y)." Ouch

PPI: "The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.3 percent in September ... Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.5 percent in September after increasing 0.3 percent in August." Well above expectations.

"Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $745.0 billion, up 0.8 percent" Above expectations.

"In the week ending October 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 199,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level."

PCH bluff erosion with non-AI photos www.ocregister.com/2026/10/13/c...

30 year fixed at 7.5% www.mortgagenewsdaily.com

Goldman “Based on details in the CPI report, we estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.32% in September (vs. our expectation of 0.20% before the CPI release), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +3.09%” Ouch

BofA: "we are tracking core PCE at 0.32% m/m from our initial estimate of 0.22% m/m, and 3.1% y/y. This would mark a notable acceleration from the 3-month trailing average of 0.19% m/m." "notable acceleration" Ouch

Social Security Announces 3.6 Percent Benefit Increase for 2027 www.ssa.gov/news/en/pres...

2027: COLA 3.6% www.ssa.gov/OACT/COLA/co... Contribution base: $192,300 www.ssa.gov/OACT/COLA/cb...

Looks like COLA will be 3.6% for 2027.

CPI increased 0.6%, Core CPI increased 0.3%. CPI "rose 3.7 percent for the 12 months ending September ... The all items less food and energy index rose 2.6 percent over the year" Core higher than consensus.

High Frequency Data: Recent Increase in Mortgage Rates Impacting Existing Home Supply and Demand Purchase Applications Down 16% YoY; Single Family Inventory Up 4.8% YoY calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/high-frequ...

Tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET: The Consumer Price Index for September from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI. The consensus is for CPI to be up 3.6% Year-over-year (YoY), and core CPI to be up 2.5% YoY.

This is heavily traveled section of PCH (Pacific Coast Highway) between Newport Beach and Laguna. Ouch www.surfer.com/news/super-e...

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 3.99 million SAAR in September Median House Prices Increased 1.3% Year-over-Year calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nar-existi...

Lawler: Update on MBS Yields and Spreads calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-upd...

www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mort...

Note that existing home sales are counted when the sale closes, so the recent surge in mortgage rates wasn't the reason for weak sales in September (contracts mostly signed in July and August). The negative impact is coming and might break the cycle low of 3.85 million SAAR back in October 2023

Economic Weekly October 9, 2026 economicweekly.substack.com/p/economic-w...

Flooding on Balboa peninsula in Orange County, CA on October 9, 2026.

Coastal flooding in Balboa and Long Beach right now. ktla.com/news/local-n...