Tsachy Mishal

Tsachy Mishal

@capitalobserver.bsky.social

564 followers99 following697 posts

$CI had an analyst day yesterday. They reaffirmed 2026 earnings (on the last day of the quarter) and said 2027 will grow at least 10%. They are now at less than 8 times 2027 earnings

They said capital allocation would contribute 4%-5% to EPS growth. I believe the most likely meaning of this is they will buyback 4%-5% of the stock in Q4 2026 & Q1 2027, more weighted to Q4. They are in blackout, so unless they put in a 10b-51 this will happen after earnings Long $CI

This article recounts how Israel trained dogs to rape Palestinian men. If you believe this I have a bridge to sell you. I would laugh but shit like this causes anti semitism. There are a lot of stupid people who believe this nonsense

The New York Times@nytimes.com

In @nytopinion.nytimes.com “In wrenching interviews, Palestinians have recounted to me a pattern of widespread Israeli sexual violence against men, women and even children,” our columnist Nicholas Kristof writes.

With the caveat that software is dead, I am once again back with my old friend $CHKP. $CHKP trades at an EV of $9.5 billion and is expected to produce $1.25 billion in cash this year. At the current price they would repurchase nearly 15% of the float over the next 12 months

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he shortfall was in the sales of physical firewalls. There is a world in which this is a hiccup . $FTNT had a fine quarter, pointing to the fact this was a sales force related problem. If the sales force shakeup works they could see double digit growth one day

With the caveat that software is dead, I am once again back with my old friend $CHKP. $CHKP trades at an EV of $9.5 billion and is expected to produce $1.25 billion in cash this year. At the current price they would repurchase nearly 15% of the float over the next 12 months

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Realizing that he was not a salesperson, Gil hired a new CEO he believed would be better at sales. The shakeup of the sales force this past quarter did not go smoothly as salespeople were assigned to new roles & there was confusion

$CHKP has been seeing double digit growth in it's subscriptions which make up the bulk of their sales, including this quarter. Their emerging products are growing over 30% and make up a third of subscriptions

With the caveat that software is dead, I am once again back with my old friend $CHKP. $CHKP trades at an EV of $9.5 billion and is expected to produce $1.25 billion in cash this year. At the current price they would repurchase nearly 15% of the float over the next 12 months

Cyber security is a highly recurring business and customers rarely switch with extremely high retention rates. $CHKP always got great marks for it's products but it's founder was technology focused. There is a reason SaaS companies spend so much on sales

Tsachy Mishal reposted

We no longer have IPOs, we have creation of ETFs which own the same 10 stocks

Callum Thomas@topdowncharts.bsky.social

Chart of the Week - ETF Frenzy Here's a chart that looks a little too weird to be true — but sometimes weird things happen when things get weird... What's going on here: entrylevel.topdowncharts.com/p/chart-of-t...

I believe that the Bollore/Vivendi decision was a complete victory for Bollore and it being sent back to the court of appeals is a mere formailty. The high court indicated that procedurally the case was handled incorrectly but the eventual outcome is not uncertain

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I believe that the Bollore/Vivendi decision was a complete victory for Bollore and it being sent back to the court of appeals is a mere formailty. The high court indicated that procedurally the case was handled incorrectly but the eventual outcome is not uncertain

View full thread

I believe that the Bollore/Vivendi decision was a complete victory for Bollore and it being sent back to the court of appeals is a mere formailty. The high court indicated that procedurally the case was handled incorrectly but the eventual outcome is not uncertain

The high court completely smacked down the logic of the court of appeals in concluding that Bollore controlled Vivendi. They listed the arguments and then said it is all wrong (they completely misinterpreted the law)

I believe AI is a negative for tech companies that make money from ads - There will be greater competition from new players like OpenAI - AI is a massive additional cost, even in a world where they keep the same ad dollars they otherwise would have gotten

There are only 2 possible reasons the "ceasefire now" crowd isn't celebrating the ceasefire via Coleman Hughes - They are more bothered about Trump getting credit than they are about the suffering in Gaza - They were rooting for Hamas

A DEI professor at a Canadian university thinks synagogues are fair game. She has since deleted her account. This is what the more educated people in the Free Palestine movement want to do to Jews. Never mind the common man

$NVDA found some loose change between the cushions

The New York Times@nytimes.com

Nvidia, the world’s dominant maker of artificial intelligence chips, said on Thursday that it would invest $5 billion in its struggling rival, Intel, a deal that illustrates how booming demand for A.I. is reshaping the global technology industry.

If financing GPUs is such a great biz model than why not do it yourself once you can. $ORCL basically added the market cap of OpenAI on the OpenAI deal. It's hard for me to put a large multiple on these earnings because it's essentially a one time financing deal, albeit a multi year financing deal

Started a position in $CHTR as they begin winding down their multi year elevated capex plans and the stock trades down to near multi year lows. $CHTR is currently a mid double digit FCF yield and should be closer to 20% once the elevated capex is reduced in a year or two

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While we may not have seen the end of $CHTR subscriber losses due to the end of subsidies, this rate of subscriber loss should not be extrapolated. Given this dynamic, it seems silly that $CHTR lost almost 40% of it's value on a slight subscriber miss, when there is this giant unknown involved

The better SSS for some clothing retailers has been inconsistent with what we are seeing in other parts of the consumer economy. Wondering if the end of de minimus took some biz away from the likes of Temu/Shein & gave it to US retailers

The better SSS for some clothing retailers has been inconsistent with what we are seeing in other parts of the consumer economy. Wondering if the end of de minimus took some biz away from the likes of Temu/Shein & gave it to US retailers

Started a position in $CHTR as they begin winding down their multi year elevated capex plans and the stock trades down to near multi year lows. $CHTR is currently a mid double digit FCF yield and should be closer to 20% once the elevated capex is reduced in a year or two

The stock was hit on a slight miss in subscriber numbers. $CHTR was the most aggressive in getting it's customers broadband subsidies and the program was not renewed. This likely had led to an elevated loss of subscribers, but is one time in nature.