Chris Colose

Now…are there actual tipping points in the (modern) climate system?

Embarrassed to be today years old when I realized “percent” derives from per…cent (per centum…hundred)

USAID, Ukrainians. There’s no limit to how many people he will kill in his relentless pursuit of power and wealth, and there’s still useful idiots who just see him as a cool visionary saving the future.

Why is there no American outrage against this? Is this not a subject of particular concern? www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

I’m not really a fan of “superhabitable” when we have a sample of one habitable world. But is the Eocene “more habitable” than modern because crocodilians can live at the poles? Maybe, but at the expense of other things, possibly less fun for mammals in the tropics www.nytimes.com/2026/10/13/s...

Cool glacial erratic in NJ

Love this new paper regarding albedos of lava worlds. Turns out hot terrestrial planets are shiny, which is the opposite of what we've generally seen for hot giant planets. Go TESS! Go PLATO! arxiv.org/abs/2609.26874

Doing some orbital stuff, thought I'd make a plot integrating Earth's eccentricity forward 2 Myr removing individual planets (plot is of the e range). I'm close to Laskar's result for the standard case. Also General Relativity plays some role which Earth feels by affecting Mercury's precession rate.

Good paper (though the results have been shown before) with implications for weathering rates in hothouse climates to set the CO2 thermostat.

Nice from @readfearn.bsky.social although maybe we can suggest better ways to avoid references to dry air “holding” vapor, like “warmer temperatures support more atmospheric water vapor." This always seems to read as less graceful, but Clausius-Clapeyron works without the non-condensing background.

Blue ice has come up a lot in the Paris paleo school and I’ve been hoping this whole time that something like this would come out soon!

🧵CO₂ removal (CDR) is back in the news, but just because the UNEP report says we need CDR, it doesn't mean we'll have CDR. Many challenges will take decades of research and negotiation to solve. Here are some examples: Technological: We currently don't have any durable CDR method that scales.

For climate experts here: if you could ask questions to journalists on how they communicate on climate, what would they look like? (We’re actually doing this with real journalists and journalism students in Europe, so it might get passed on)

Real picture from Paris

Great presentstions of student projects at the FuPa Cenozoic climate summer school in Paris. From EBMs (I was happy to help mentor on this) to Eocene crocodiles (I guess Crocodilia as a broader taxonomic category) as useful proxies for hothouse climate ranges.

New hypothesis for snowball bifurcations

At a metro stop in France, there is an exhibit showing equations developed by Manabe in his 1960s modeling work. @climatebook.bsky.social

Paper suggesting a 129ish day theoretical limit to a Earth weather forecast at which quantum effects introduce the “final” initial condition uncertainty. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

There’s no end to the tech tr(b)illionnaires dreams but it’s much easier to wade off fossil fuels, or e.g. invest in asteroid deflection, than declare mastery over the planet though half-brained geoengineering ideas.

The sheer scale of destruction amid Himalayan glacier collapse disaster is horrifying, as is presumptive human toll. This was no mere flash flood or mudslide--it was more akin to a geologic-scale debris avalanche or "inland tsunami." The footage emerging is almost unbelievable.

Has there been anything convincing that Common Era El Niño/La Nina tendencies have a substantial forced component? It matters for the future since muted E. pac warming biases sensitivity estimates low, but internal variability seems sufficient to explain that, e.g www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1...

🧊 A tropical ice core rewrites the methane record A new tropical ice core shows equatorial wetlands emitted more methane before industrialisation than polar ice cores ever suggested. 🔗 doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10938-1 #ClimateScience #Methane #IceCore 🧪

I would be great if the militant defense of doing race science among academic freedom signatories could occasionally show up in other forms, like defending the right of scientists to use words like "increase" or "biased" in a grant. grantwritingandfunding.com/banned-and-t...

In addition, probably worth revisiting the idea of screening climate models based on their sensitivity. In addition to aerosols, you also decouple sensitivity from historic warming based on things like the spatial pattern of warming.

With all the El Niño & global temperature discussions, while global temps are elevated (largely due to latent heating in the atmosphere) the ocean loses heat and Earth loses heat radiatively. The upcoming “mega” El Niño will be a good test case of the physics (and hopefully no more “pause” talk).

This is really alarming. www.theguardian.com/world/2026/a... Having evidently decided that a full-on military invasion of Greenland would rouse too much opposition, Trump's fossil fuel cronies are doing his dirty work for him, moving in on drilling in an environmentally protected area and daring

Time Traveler Causes of Death xkcd.com/2976/

At the end of the day, Covid was dangerous but effectively over, the vaccines worked, the world moved on, lessons learned, and the Weinstein-Rogan cranks & their solutions/vax critiques were intellectually bankrupt, but cost far more lives than personality defects in scientists emails.

On The Climate Brink, @zekehausfather.com and I revisit the warmth of the 1930s. This seems to be one of the most important denier arguments out there. www.theclimatebrink.com/p/raw-data-w...

www.science.org/content/blog...

Pretty cool and dramatic NASA animation showing the long-range transport of 2026 Canadian wildfire smoke.

Trump’s threat of tariffs against Canada for smoke “invasion” is stupid, but a good case study of how geopolitics will react to SRM deployment, when different countries/billionaires/trillionaires have varying levels of aerosol control (despite the fossil fuel invasion of everyone against everyone)

MAGA is finally on board with carbon taxes

Temperatures in Canada are going up partly because of U.S. emissions, which are invading the entire globe.

Very proud of my student Collin Cherubim for his discovery of an atmosphere on the habitable-zone exoplanet LHS 1140 b! www.science.org/doi/10.1126/... www.nytimes.com/2026/07/16/s...

Thanks Canada for your Mie Scattering

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Climate Change as a Global Tea Party

15 years ago, @dawngelino.bsky.social and I launched the Habitable Zone Gallery. To celebrate this milestone, we are proud to announce a significantly revamped site, with new aesthetics, features, and plot options. Check it out here: hzgallery.org.

So if I want to learn about data centers where is a good spot to start?

Everything in an authoritarian regime is fake. It hollows out competence & replaces it with loyalty, rewarding only willingness to echo pre-determined “truths.” Of course Matt is a fraud and troll, but none of that matters. He, like the DOE authors, are willing corrupted puppets.