Chaz Nuttycombe

Chaz Nuttycombe

@chaznuttycombe.bsky.social

I'm on X much more than here. Follow @statenavigate.org for our latest. Executive Director of @statenavigate.org, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. VT Alumni. Opinions my own. Contact: chaz@statenavigate.org

6K followers86 following130 posts

Chaz Nuttycombe
@chaznuttycombe.bsky.social

All of our remaining forecasts are about to come out and we'll have a tally going but I believe we're looking at DEMs gaining 325 - 400 state legislative seats nationwide. In 2018 they gained 309. Ds may get a majority of state legislative seats and chambers if they slightly outperform our forecast

Chaz Nuttycombe
@chaznuttycombe.bsky.social

I've been talking with a lot of Republicans this week whom I've known for at least a few cycles across the country, N=15, and in my nine years of these kinds of background conversations with both sides of the aisle, I have never heard one side feel so doomed about an election.

Chaz Nuttycombe
@chaznuttycombe.bsky.social

Rs didn't feel this pessimistic in 2018 or 2020, Ds didn't feel this pessimistic in 2022 or even VA Ds in 2021. And the conversations I'm having with Rs make it sound like some of us in the forecasting business are about to get our shit rocked.

Chaz Nuttycombe
@chaznuttycombe.bsky.social

VIRGINIA: Which member of the Virginia General Assembly are you closest to? Take our 20-question quiz looking at bills from this year's session. How would you vote? projects.statenavigate.com/interactives...

projects.statenavigate.comWho votes like you? Virginia | State NavigateAnswer 20 questions about legislative votes in Virginia during the 2026 regular session. Compare your answers with the state’s legislators, and explore the bills behind your compatibility scores.

Chaz Nuttycombe reposted

Scott Clement
@sfcpoll.bsky.social

Story features comments from @pollsandvotes.bsky.social votes.bsky.social & @chaznuttycombe.bsky.social on Wisconsin results and polls

votes.bsky.socialvotes.bsky.social
Scott Clement@sfcpoll.bsky.social

New from me: Wisconsin surprise raises big questions about polls and Democratic voters www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

washingtonpost.comWisconsin surprise raises big questions about polls and Democratic votersSurveys had showed Francesca Hong with a significant lead in the Democratic primary for governor. Then she lost. What did the polls get wrong?
Chaz Nuttycombe
@chaznuttycombe.bsky.social

Final texts are being sent in one hour and 8 minutes. Poll closes 2PM on Monday. We're contacting young, black, and women voters to help our raw sample become almost perfect.

Chaz Nuttycombe@chaznuttycombe.bsky.social

We're live, asking Virginia voters about the redistricting referendum. Watch us poll or get left behind. projects.statenavigate.com/25-26/states...

Chaz Nuttycombe
@chaznuttycombe.bsky.social

In rough weights, which aren't 100% perfect but pretty close to our final weighting process, Yes is doing slightly better than Spanberger's approval rating. People are definitely pissed with the Governor based on what we're getting + that GMU poll.

Chaz Nuttycombe reposted

Chaz Nuttycombe
@chaznuttycombe.bsky.social

Today, @statenavigate.org is launching subscriptions for most of our data to help power our mission of opening in every state. Read more: statenavigate.org/sc/state-nav... Subscribe: projects.statenavigate.com/aws-auth-sub... WI Forecast goes live for subscribers TOMORROW.

statenavigate.orgState Navigate Launches Subscriptions - State NavigateTo help us complete our mission of launching nationwide, we're launching subscription services for most of our data.
Chaz Nuttycombe
@chaznuttycombe.bsky.social

Today, @statenavigate.org is launching subscriptions for most of our data to help power our mission of opening in every state. Read more: statenavigate.org/sc/state-nav... Subscribe: projects.statenavigate.com/aws-auth-sub... WI Forecast goes live for subscribers TOMORROW.

statenavigate.orgState Navigate Launches Subscriptions - State NavigateTo help us complete our mission of launching nationwide, we're launching subscription services for most of our data.
Chaz Nuttycombe
@chaznuttycombe.bsky.social

NEW: The full timeline of redistricting in VA this week and breakdown of new seats. Dan Helmer successfully secured himself a seat in Congress. statenavigate.org/map-favored-...

statenavigate.orgMap Favored by House of Delegates Becomes Virginia’s New Democratic Gerrymander - State NavigateAfter nearly a week-long delay, both the House and Senate have reached an agreement regarding the redrawn Congressional maps ahead of the upcoming midterm elections.

Chaz Nuttycombe reposted

Chaz Nuttycombe
@chaznuttycombe.bsky.social

Happy Hogmanay y'all. If you'd like to support @statenavigate.org's 2026 expansion, make sure to make a tax-deductible 2025 donation in the remaining hours of the year! statenavigate.org/donate/

statenavigate.orgDonate - State NavigateSupport Our Mission! As a 501(c)(3) organization, donations to State Navigate are tax deductible! We're striving to make it easier to navigate state-level politics and make them more transparent for a...

Chaz Nuttycombe reposted

Dave Nuttycombe
@nutco.bsky.social

When one Nuttycombe rises, we all rise!

WTVR CBS 6 News Richmond, Virginia@cbs6-richmond.bsky.social

At just 26, Chaz Nuttycombe has taken the election prediction world by storm, becoming one of the most talked about and sought-after forecasters in the country.

wtvr.comThe Rise of Chaz Nuttycombe: Forecast is good for 26-year-old polling prognosticatorAt just 26, Chaz Nuttycombe has taken the election prediction world by storm, becoming one of the most talked about and sought-after forecasters in the country.

Chaz Nuttycombe reposted

WTVR CBS 6 News Richmond, Virginia
@cbs6-richmond.bsky.social

At just 26, Chaz Nuttycombe has taken the election prediction world by storm, becoming one of the most talked about and sought-after forecasters in the country.

wtvr.comThe Rise of Chaz Nuttycombe: Forecast is good for 26-year-old polling prognosticatorAt just 26, Chaz Nuttycombe has taken the election prediction world by storm, becoming one of the most talked about and sought-after forecasters in the country.
Chaz Nuttycombe
@chaznuttycombe.bsky.social

As a 26-year-old, I came up with the idea of sending our text messages to 18-29 year olds in lowercase to try to get them to respond to the survey. It worked like a charm. As a political scientist, so privileged to be working with Michael Foley on our polling. statenavigate.org/state-naviga...

statenavigate.orgState Navigate Experiment Shows how Pollsters Can Reach Young Voters - State NavigateCultural competence goes a long way. We knew young voters would come out in Virginia this year, so we made sure we got them to answer our surveys.