Daniel A. N. Goldstein

The Hope Index: a midterm election tracker for where prediction markets and polls disagree! Biggest gap today: Iowa. Polls have Turek (D) about tied with Hinson (R), but the money gives him ~42%. After Election Day, I’ll score who was closer! daniel-a-n-goldstein.github.io/pollsvscash/#ia-senate

Are politicians gatekeepers of democracy? Will they reject candidates for party leadership or coalitions to protect it? We ran pre-registered experiments on 2,000 Norwegian politicians. They do gatekeep, but it’s conditional. osf.io/preprints/so...

And nearly 70% would accept an anti-democratic coalition partner when it delivers a governing majority (vs 52% as minority status). Even in Norway, gatekeeping depends on the stakes.

Are politicians gatekeepers of democracy? Will they reject candidates for party leadership or coalitions to protect it? We ran pre-registered experiments on 2,000 Norwegian politicians. They do gatekeep, but it’s conditional. osf.io/preprints/so...

60 years after Kaufman’s The Forest Ranger, a defining study of how federal agencies build institutional identity, we see the near total destruction of the US Forest Service

Do citizens want to address unfair burden-sharing in public goods? New research out in ISQ @isq-jrnl.bsky.social with @drewstommes.bsky.social addresses this question by highlighting the unequal socioeconomic costs of US wars academic.oup.com/isq/article/...

Using formal theory, a survey experiment, & text analysis, we find: • People prefer “direct corrections” - policies that address the disparity itself • “Indirect corrections” that compensate burdened groups get less support • Fairness matters more than social identity in shaping preferences

The EPA (like most Federal agencies) is facing alarming “institutional erosion”, maybe worse than the chaos of the 1980s. And this quote gets to the real point. This is not about policy differences. These are institutional changes that require acts by Congress #EPA #InstitutionalDisruption #Congress

Trump’s firing of key officials and the gutting of agencies is more than headlines—it’s reshaping American government capacity with long-term effects on political stability and policy. My @thejop.bsky.social article explores how “institutional disruption” impacts government performance over time 🧵

With unprecedented firings and resignations, remaining staff may pander toward disruptive leadership—further weakening agency capacity and complicating the recruitment of skilled talent. I’ve expanded on these ideas on the @lseblogs.bsky.social , @broadstreetblog.bsky.social, and in the article

Trump’s firing of key officials and the gutting of agencies is more than headlines—it’s reshaping American government capacity with long-term effects on political stability and policy. My @thejop.bsky.social article explores how “institutional disruption” impacts government performance over time 🧵

During the first Trump administration, I observed mostly resistance and temporary reversals. But recent news suggests that the current administration might be pushing agencies toward full erosion—jeopardizing their ability to deliver legislated mandates #polisci #econ

Trump’s firing of key officials and the gutting of agencies is more than headlines—it’s reshaping American government capacity with long-term effects on political stability and policy. My @thejop.bsky.social article explores how “institutional disruption” impacts government performance over time 🧵