Daniel McDowell

H-Diplo Roundtables provide a great service to book authors and book readers alike. I was fortunate to join another H-Diplo conversation, this time writing the introduction for a roundtable on Aditi Sahasrabuddhe's excellent new book "Bankers' Trust". Link below.

Do financial sanctions provoke de-dollarization? In new co-authored research with David Steinberg, we look at this question from the unique perspective of Russian households in 2022-23. A short 🧵(1/7)

In sum, rather than provoke Russian households to rush out of rubles into dollars, Western sanctions seemed to have done the opposite. Free-access link: track.smtpsendmail.com/9032119/c?p=... Fin.

Do financial sanctions provoke de-dollarization? In new co-authored research with David Steinberg, we look at this question from the unique perspective of Russian households in 2022-23. A short 🧵(1/7)

We support our observational findings with a follow-up, preregistered survey experiment in Russia. This helps us rule out the counterargument that Russian capital controls/FX restrictions that followed sanctions explain our finding. 5/7

Do financial sanctions provoke de-dollarization? In new co-authored research with David Steinberg, we look at this question from the unique perspective of Russian households in 2022-23. A short 🧵(1/7)

Western sanctions led to a sharp drop in the share of Russians who thought it was wise to save in dollars--consistent with a de-dollarization story. 3/7

Do financial sanctions provoke de-dollarization? In new co-authored research with David Steinberg, we look at this question from the unique perspective of Russian households in 2022-23. A short 🧵(1/7)

Some people chase trends. I am not some people.

Are Bessent's proposed swap lines with Gulf and Asian states an indication that the dollar has become what Susan Strange--the OG theorist of the geoeconomics of international currencies--called a "Negotiated Currency"? A short 🧵(1/10)

When the state that issues the world's dominant currency has to reach into the goodie bag to placate restless users of its currency, it is a signal that the market incentives alone are no longer able to sustain the status quo. (9/10)

Are Bessent's proposed swap lines with Gulf and Asian states an indication that the dollar has become what Susan Strange--the OG theorist of the geoeconomics of international currencies--called a "Negotiated Currency"? A short 🧵(1/10)

For Strange, a "negotiated" currency is a step down from a "top" currency. The latter's dominance is sustained entirely by economic incentives. However, when those incentives are no longer enough, the issuing country can provide "perks" to maintain dominance. (7/10)

Are Bessent's proposed swap lines with Gulf and Asian states an indication that the dollar has become what Susan Strange--the OG theorist of the geoeconomics of international currencies--called a "Negotiated Currency"? A short 🧵(1/10)

The implication is that the US is now considering offering inducements to select countries to keep their eyes from wandering to currency alternatives amid a disruptive war. @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social GeoEconomics has a nice piece related to this: atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econog... (5/10)

Are Bessent's proposed swap lines with Gulf and Asian states an indication that the dollar has become what Susan Strange--the OG theorist of the geoeconomics of international currencies--called a "Negotiated Currency"? A short 🧵(1/10)

Why would the US do this? A follow-up post by Bessent on X provides answers: The Treasury Sec'y notes the lines would "reinforc[e] dollar usage" and "counter...alternative payment systems." This is fascinating stuff. (3/10) x.com/SecScottBess...

Are Bessent's proposed swap lines with Gulf and Asian states an indication that the dollar has become what Susan Strange--the OG theorist of the geoeconomics of international currencies--called a "Negotiated Currency"? A short 🧵(1/10)