John Morales

This year’s saltwater floods have been particularly bad. But the reality is that these conditions will hit more frequently and impact more areas with each passing year. Sea level has risen 8 inches in 30 years in Miami. Another foot is expected in 30 years. Then another foot in the next 20 years.

“Cuts to science costs lives” — @people.com interviewed me about the latest affront to our ability to keep you and yours safe. people.com/proposed-tru...

“States that tend to vote for Democrats have faced a longer wait for aid and seen their requests rejected more often, according to analyses of federal disaster declarations during Mr. Trump’s 2nd term.” Puerto Rico is *still* waiting for Maria funds. Not paper towels www.nytimes.com/2026/10/21/c...

This weekend in Miami: For perspective the disruptive and damaging South Florida tidal floods of September 28 peaked as “moderate coastal flooding.” In this weekend’s event, there is up to a 30% chance of *major* saltwater floods. If your property hasn’t already been damaged, it now may be. #climate

The artist titled this work “Denial.” His use of gallium (Ga in the periodic table) led to a result fit for Halloween. And the Ron DeSantis’ climate change denial just hit its melting point. youtube.com/shorts/2cK57...

“The administration is poised to set the US back years on weather forecasting rather than advancing its capabilities.” ☑️ It already has 📉

I pointed out on January 2 that October 27 would be a date to watch out for in #Miami, but it's looking to be much more than that. Our tide forecasts that account for current conditions in the atmosphere and ocean are indicating extremely high tides for multiple days around the upcoming full moon.

“About 1 in 6 U.S. households is already behind on its utility bills.” “More than a dozen […] states […] restrict shut-offs [in] dangerous heat, so disconnections tend to peak in October, when a climate crisis turns into a collection notice.” www.nytimes.com/2026/10/18/u...

“This year, a number of extreme weather events made the impacts of an acceleratingly warming planet impossible to ignore.” time.com/article/2026...

2026 will avoid the distinction of the least active Atlantic hurricane season. As of 5 am ET Saturday, Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), a metric that includes storm strength and longevity, stood at 18. While this is only 17% of normal for the date, other years were less active, including 1983.

Hurricane Isaías will make landfall around the time of hi tide in the western Florida Panhandle. Tides get springier this weekend (King Tide), so it's good to miss that. However, hitting at low tide would've been better for all concerned. See NHC's forecast inundation graphic. More on @nbcmiami.com

Major 🚨 Hurricane Isaías: Just after the 8 am (ET) NHC advisory posted, the U.S. Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission showed flight level winds just under 125 knots, which translates to 120 mph sustained surface winds. Record hot Gulf of Mexico temperatures are feeding rapid intensification (RI)

"Preparations should be rushed to completion as the weather will go downhill quickly today." — National Hurricane Center Isaías is on the verge of attaining major hurricane status.

Isaías is strengthening and visible imagery shows the hurricane's eye is starting to clear. I'll be on the 5, 6 and 7 pm news on @nbcmiami.com

Don’t do this. Lots of people in Asheville have “Post-Helene Stress Disorder” and the last thing we need right now is to scare people. Thank you @johnmoralestv.bsky.social for calling this out.

“Even in an overall hostile environment, there are bound to be stretches of days in which […] opportunities materialize for stronger storm formation.” www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/j...

A tropical depression has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to become the Atlantic season's first hurricane.

NHC 2 pm Tue post on #Invest92L indicates a 100% chance of development. More modeling (for what it's worth these days) points to rapid intensification into the season's 1st hurricane, fed by all-time hottest Gulf water temperatures made 300x-800x more likely by climate change. (@climatecentral.org)

September 2026 was the warmest one on record for the Contiguous U.S. according to PRISM climate data. If confirmed by NOAA it would be the first time there will be three back-to-back record months JUL, AUG, SEP — a concerning first thanks to climate change. (via @climateguyw.bsky.social)

Weather forecasting for North American mid latitudes is worse today than just a couple of years ago. I see it, and, anecdotally, complaints about model guidance from colleagues in my profession are multiplying. Empirically, the American GFS model’s skill is back to 2019 levels 📉

Hoy expandí sobre los peligros del remanente del antiguo #HuracánPolo en CNN en Español con Rebeka Kelly, tanto sobre suelo mexicano como en estados del sur en EE.UU. Además hablé del contexto climático, necesario en todos estos eventos modernos. (bilingual captions)

🫳🏼 "My hand was getting slapped less and less." 😆 www.cbc.ca/radio/whaton...

“Starting Saturday evening and continuing into Sunday morning’s high tide, the ocean poured into urban cities up and down the coast, breaking a recent record for flooding in Fort Lauderdale.” — @miamiherald.com You ain’t seen nothing yet. youtu.be/tPbOSetsFw4?...

I enjoyed this CBC interview for the What On Earth podcast with @johannawagstaffe.bsky.social, which also includes @climatechris.bsky.social. Recorded in New York during Climate Week. You can get through my [pretty introspective] part in the 1st six minutes. www.cbc.ca/listen/live-...

Florida public university rankings in a free fall. No one is surprised. www.yahoo.com/news/us/arti...

"Clouds don’t form in sinking air, much less clusters of thunderstorms that can become fledgling tropical disturbances. Atmospheric stability puts a cap on hurricane development." — a short article for @nbcmiami.com www.nbcmiami.com/weather/hurr...

mi·soth·er·y /mɪˈsɒθəri/ (mi-SOTH-uh-ree) 1. A hatred, contempt, or deep-seated disdain for non-human animals. 2. An ingrained cultural attitude or philosophy that views animals as inferior, disposable, or radically separate from humans F*ck ‘em all. Which f*cks us www.nytimes.com/2026/09/16/c...

“The shift by the Environmental Protection Agency would complete the administration’s erasure of the most consequential climate policies…” 20 months of “damn the torpedoes” is not just exhausting, but reckless and cruelly dangerous. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/13/c...

Interview: “Absolutely wonderful! i’m a science/math/data person and i’ve heard much of this from the health sciences sector. This view from another sector was welcome and (sadly) confirmation. Great data & insights from someone with knowledge and experience.” joycevance.substack.com/p/live-with-...

The oligarchy is dripping in toxic petro-masculinity 🤢 www.nytimes.com/2026/08/31/u...

Remember Paris?: “The world has failed in its goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial times, the United Nations said.” Now, “dangerous and catastrophic climate change is here.” www.nytimes.com/2026/09/02/c...

Is your weather app worse than it’s ever been? I know why, and talked about it tonight on Civil Discourse with @joycewhitevance.bsky.social

Updating to show 48-hour rainfall totals through Tuesday morning. Just under 3 inches (~75 mm) of rain fell in Juncos, home to tributaries of the Río Grande de Loíza system, such as the Valenciano and Gurabo rivers. The remnants of Dolly have departed, and localized convection is all PR will now see

Rain is expected today, Monday, in PR & DR due to trailing moisture behind the remnants of Storm Dolly. However, 24-hour rainfall totals recorded up to this morning undoubtedly leave much to be desired, especially in the watersheds that need it most. Preliminary data via @cocorahskyjc6.bsky.social

An NPR investigation found that people in the U.S. are dying from heat much more often than official counts show. We explore the reasons why — and how lives can be saved. n.pr/4hZ8XID

Let's gooooo! ☔

In the post-DOGE era, permanent cuts make us all vulnerable to extreme weather. We need to listen to the scientists. joycevance.substack.com/p/five-quest...

Now that Tropical Storm Dolly has dissipated, let’s focus on how much rain its remnants might bring. Ensemble modeling from NWS indicates approximately 1 inch (25 mm) for the Río Grande de Loíza watershed (where the Carraízo reservoir is located), and others. (2nd graphic from @wxmanms1.bsky.social)

“With at least two feet of sea level rise expected by 2060 and an average elevation of six feet above sea level, thousands of Miami-Dade properties are at risk of being flooded either multiple times a year or permanently.” (paywall with no access to gift 🔗 sorry) www.miamiherald.com/news/local/e...

There will be a partial eclipse of the Moon overnight. Best viewing will be just before midnight (Eastern & Atlantic time zones) through 12:30 around maximum eclipse when 96% of the moon will be in Earth's umbra, leaving a sliver of bright white moonlight reflecting back to Earth.

As I mentioned this morning, the "cone of uncertainty" cuts off on the left because it only extends to 72 hours (Saturday). Officially, NHC projects that the newly named Dolly will dissipate before reaching Puerto Rico, leaving behind—hopefully—a system that brings rain but no significant winds.

This depression or storm is expected to form today. However, I anticipate a short-lived system. Conditions in the Atlantic east of the Caribbean will become hostile to the survival of any tropical cyclone starting tomorrow, Friday. I remain hopeful that its remnants might bring rain to the islands.

For Puerto Rico and USVI to get rain from #Invest96L, it would need to avoid strengthening—or strengthen and then be broken apart by wind shear and dry air. As for a major storm event for Puerto Rico, this system doesn't look like a likely candidate 🙌🥳🎉. Stay tuned as peak season approaches.