Survation.

NEW: Where will the public land on Andy Burnham’s Triple Lock changes and National Care Service plans? Initial reactions to the PM’s speech in a poll of 1,548 adults in the UK interviewed in the hours after the speech on 29 September on behalf of Mandate Research 🧵1/9

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A fair bit of "house effect" going on. Labour leads everywhere, by anything from 3 to 8 pts. 2nd place depends on whose poll you read: Opinium, Deltapoll & ourselves have Reform. Ipsos, YouGov, MiC and FON have the Tories.

survation.comSix in ten Scots backed Jackdaw before the government approved it | SurvationSix in ten Scots backed Jackdaw before the government approved it On the 21st of October the UK Government approved gas production at the Jackdaw...

Today, the UK government has approved extraction from the Jackdaw gas field in the North Sea. Previous polling on behalf of the Forum for Research on Energy showed that 6 in 10 Scots supported the approval prior to its happening: www.survation.com/six-in-ten-s...

On Rosebank, 64% say the UK Government should approve it and 16% say it should not. 63% say the Scottish Government should support both the Jackdaw and Rosebank projects going ahead, against 18% who say it should not.

59% support developing oil and gas in the UK North Sea and 14% oppose it; 65% support expanding offshore wind around Scotland and 11% oppose it; 60% support building new electricity transmission infrastructure, such as pylons and substations, with 9% opposed.

In a Survation poll of 1,003 adults in Scotland, conducted between the 9th and 14th of October on behalf of the Forum for Research on Energy, 62% said the UK Government should approve the development and 18% said it should not, while one in five (20%) did not know.

@compassoffice.bsky.social

Majorities of those who voted SNP, Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrat and Reform UK at May’s Scottish Parliament election backed approval.

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Compass

OUT NOW: Our Holborn & St. Pancras by-election reaction is in all your podcast feeds! @survation.bsky.social's @damiansurvation.bsky.social and @fayebrownjourno.bsky.social join our Director Neal Lawson and Dep. Director Lena Swedlow to break down what the result means for progressive politics.

survation.comWhat happened in Holborn & St Pancras? | SurvationPublished here for the first time as a diagnostic, Survation’s poll of the constituency, taken in the final stretch of the campaign, helps explain the...

What happened in Holborn and St Pancras? Our constituency polling, carried out the week before the election, reveals voters motives and the reasons behind each parties' performance www.survation.com/what-happene...

And regardless of how people voted - they expected Labour to win 57% of those who intended to vote Green still expected Labour to win

Get the data: Survation conducted a telephone and online poll of 504 adults aged 18+ living in the Holborn and St Pancras constituency on behalf of Dale Vince. Fieldwork was conducted between 29 September - 6 October 2026. Tables are available here: cdn.survation.com/wp-content/u...

While Zack Polanski was not unpopular, he was 13pp behind Andy Burnham, but slightly ahead of Sagal Abdi-Wali Keir Starmer was at -19 favourability in his old seat

Voters also believed that Burnham is doing a better job than Starmer was, with a net +36%

@compassoffice.bsky.social

Housing was a top issue for voters, followed by Cost of Living, then Crime and Safety

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Compass

Tonight at 6pm we have a LIVE recording of our podcast focusing on the fallout of the Holborn & St. Pancras by-election! Our Director Neal and Deputy Director Lena are joined by @damiansurvation.bsky.social and @fayebrownjourno.bsky.social! Listen wherever you get your podcasts.

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Inside me are two wolves. The first wolf goes ‘go to bed early before the by-election in Holborn & St Pancras, then do an early start’. The second wolf… got through a 7:20am LBC News slot and is excited to be on "It’s Bloody Complicated: After H&StP at 6pm: www.compassonline.org.uk/podcast/list...

Stephen Bush@stephenkb.bsky.social

Inside me are two wolves. The first wolf goes 'but I liked being represented by national figures in Stoke Newington and Kings Cross'. The second wolf goes 'thank god I will never have to hear unevidenced and mad opinions about my local MP again'.

survation.comJunior Research and Data Analyst | SurvationJob Title: Junior Research and Data Analyst Contract Type: Permanent Start Date: ASAP – we will be conducting a rolling interview process Location: London...

We are hiring! We're looking for a Junior Research & Data Analyst to join our team If you have some hands-on experience analysing data in R or Python and are interested in how polling works, we'd love to hear from you. Read more and apply here: www.survation.com/careers/juni...

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention LAB 30% (+1) RFM 24% (+1) CON 19% (=) LD 9% (=) GRN 8% (-1) SNP 2% (-1) RB 2% (-1) PC 2% (+1) OTH 3% (-1) F/w 2-5 October 2026. Changes vs 29/09/2026

survation.comLabour at 30, Reform at 24: Burnham's party extends its recovery ahead of first Budget | SurvationSurvation’s latest Westminster voting intention poll, conducted 2nd to 5th October 2026, has Labour on 30% (+1), Reform UK on 24% (+1), the Conservatives on...

Read the full analysis at: www.survation.com/labour-at-30...

GET THE DATA: Survation interviewed 1,974 UK adults aged 18+ on their voting intention. Fieldwork: 3-5 October 2026 Data tables can be downloaded here: cdn.survation.com/wp-content/u...

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention LAB 30% (+1) RFM 24% (+1) CON 19% (=) LD 9% (=) GRN 8% (-1) SNP 2% (-1) RB 2% (-1) PC 2% (+1) OTH 3% (-1) F/w 2-5 October 2026. Changes vs 29/09/2026

Andy Burnham remains the most liked party leader, at +19 this week, compared to +16 last time.

Confidence in the government's ability to handle the issues of the economy, NHS and national security have improved since the last poll.

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention LAB 30% (+1) RFM 24% (+1) CON 19% (=) LD 9% (=) GRN 8% (-1) SNP 2% (-1) RB 2% (-1) PC 2% (+1) OTH 3% (-1) F/w 2-5 October 2026. Changes vs 29/09/2026

Following conference season, this is Labour's highest result since December 2024, with the last 5 polls having had them between 27%-30%.

Is Kemi more popular than her party, and what does this mean for the Conservatives? The Conservatives are on 19% in Survation's latest Westminster voting intention poll, conducted for Mandate Research on the 29th of September In all of our polls since June 2025, they have been between 18% and 21%.

Badenoch's own seat is safer than in 2024 Badenoch won North West Essex in 2024 with a majority of 2,610 votes over Labour, 4.8 points. The MRP puts her on 32%, ahead of Labour on 24.5% and Reform UK on 22%, a lead of 7.5 points and a 97% probability of holding the seat.

survation.comA popular leader of an unpopular party? How Kemi Badenoch's fortunes have diverged from her party's | SurvationIn all 17 of our polls since June 2025, the Conservatives have been between 18% and 21%. The Conservatives are on 19% in Survation’s...

Read the full story here: www.survation.com/a-popular-le...

When Badenoch became leader, 78% of those who voted Conservative in 2024 said they would do so again. By last winter that had fallen to 64%, with 30% saying they would vote Reform UK. Averaged across our polls since mid-August, it has recovered to 69%, with 23% going to Reform.

The Survation x 38 Degrees MRP, with fieldwork from the 20th of August to the 4th of September, projects the Conservatives to win 85 seats on 19.7% of the vote, down from the 121 they won in 2024.

At the same time, in our poll of the 22nd and 23rd of September, 42% say Kemi Badenoch is doing well as leader of the Conservative Party and 33% say she is not, a net score of +9

How did Andy Burnham's conference speech land with the public, and what did they make of the triple lock announcement? Last week @damiansurvation.bsky.social took @andrewmarr.bsky.social through our snap poll on @lbc.co.uk.

survation.comWhere will the public land on Andy Burnham’s Triple Lock changes and National Care Service plans? | SurvationSurvation conducted an instant reaction poll of 1,548 UK adults yesterday evening to gauge the public’s reaction to Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s speech at the...

Full analysis on our blog: www.survation.com/where-will-t...

NEW: Westminster Voting Intention LAB 29% (+2) RFM 23% (-1) CON 19% (-2) LD 9% (-2) GRN 9% (+2) SNP 3% (=) RB 2% (=) PC 1% (-1) OTH 4% (=) F/w 29 September 2026. Changes vs 23/09/2026

This is the highest vote share we have recorded for Labour since December 2024 and up 10 points from its lowest ever share in February 2026.

cdn.survation.comcdn.survation.com

GET THE DATA Survation interviewed 1,548 UK adults aged 18+ on behalf of Mandate Research. Fieldwork: evening of 29 September 2026. Data tables can be downloaded here: cdn.survation.com/wp-content/u...

Support outnumbers opposition in every age group, including those most affected: -> 55-64: 61% support, 16% oppose -> 65+: 55% support, 27% oppose 8/9

cdn.survation.comcdn.survation.com

GET THE DATA Read the full analysis: survation.com/where-will-t... Survation interviewed 1,548 UK adults aged 18+ on behalf of Mandate Research. Fieldwork: evening of 29 September 2026. Data tables: cdn.survation.com/wp-content/u... 9/9

What changes? Pensions still rise by at least 2.5% or CPI inflation, whichever is higher, and keep pace with earnings over time. What goes is the "ratchet" that lets pensions rise faster than wages. The government says the savings will go to pay towards the new National Care Service. 6/9

With the Triple Lock reform set out accurately and the savings hypothecated to a National Care Service, a clear majority back it: 64% support it and 15% oppose: net +49. 7/9

In his speech, the Prime Minister talked about the two things in relation to each other. We showed respondents two excerpts as the main explanatory clips by the BBC yesterday, one on the National Care Service plans and one on the pensions lock adjustment. 4/9

Instant reactions were positive from almost 7 in 10 respondents (69%), compared to 13% who had a negative response, a NET score of +56. 5/9

Of the 55% of the public who had seen or heard something about the speech, 55% have a positive impression vs. 23% negative 2/9

The most significant announcements in the speech among those aware of it were the changes to the Triple Lock (mentioned by 50%) and plans for the National Care Service (mentioned by 22%). Read more: www.survation.com/where-will-t... 3/9

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LabourList

@labourlist.bsky.social

⏰️ Starting now at Revolution! 🌹 What can Labour learn from its members? LabourList, @survation.bsky.social and @babelfishnews.bsky.social are launching their latest polling of Labour Party members. Hear the exclusive findings first-hand, with @lucympowell.bsky.social and @dalevince.com🌟

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eepurl.comLatest Data Briefing: MRP, tactical voting and Labour Conference

If you are headed to the Labour Party Conference and would like to catch up, or just want to be briefed on our pre conference research, go here for details: eepurl.com/F2ohRItFCX

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