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Big Oil used to pretend climate change wasn’t real – then they pretended they were part of the solution. 🧵

Woody Harrelson has done an ad "for Exxon". Well worth watching

1/7 Does it matter whether your Bitcoin savings plan buys on the 1st or the 16th of the month? Bitcoin's daily closes since August 2010 cover 194 complete months. Both halves of the month earned about the same. 🧵 #Bitcoin #DCA

7/7 The day of the month moves a savings plan by about one percent, in no fixed direction. The bigger decision is whether to spread the purchase at all. Lump sum or DCA, over Bitcoin's own history: tradingstrategies.work/analyse/dca-... #Bitcoin

1/10 Strategy wants to pay STRC dividends every day, weekends included. Shareholders vote on Oct 28, and Strategy pitches it as more demand and more Bitcoin per share. The weekly filings show who is buying STRC near $100 right now: Strategy itself. 🧵 #bitcoin #STRC

🌡 Arena Pulse today: 51/100 — Neutral 🚦 Stage 3/5 · 🔥 F&G 48/100 · 📊 MVRV +0.8 Market undecided. https://tradingstrategies.work/dashboard/arena-pulse

1/6 On Oct 12, about three quarters of S&P 500 weight sat in a buyback blackout, the weeks before earnings when companies stop buying their own stock. When does that buyer return, and does the market rise with it? The calendar, and a test with a date. 🧵 #Stocks #Buybacks

6/6 The flow thesis fails if the S&P 500 closes lower on Dec 15 with 85 % of weight back in open windows. Then rates, supply or politics outweighed the buybacks. The result goes up here on Dec 15 either way. Study the Past — Improve your Future 🥋 #Buybacks

8/8 Ask an exchange about its cushion, not its name: proof of reserves, a checked protection fund. In your own wallet, read what you sign on the device. tradingstrategies.work/blog/biggest... Study the Past — Improve your Future 🥋 #Crypto

📐 Cycle models vs. spot — week 43 BTC 80,989 · h 4.63 Bitcoin Wave 82.2k (-1 %, in band) Power Law 152.3k (-47 %, in band) Rainbow 281.3k (-71 %, in band) Stock-to-Flow 845.4k (-90 %) Dated calls: 1 of 5 hit, 2 pending. https://tradingstrategies.work/knowledge/cycle_model_scorecard/GLOBAL

🥋 Live Signals — 26 Oct 🔴 SELL SUIUSDT 2d: Smoothed Heiken Ashi +7.3% 🔴 SELL AAVEUSDT 2d: Smoothed Heiken Ashi +7.8% 🔴 SELL LINKUSDT 2d: ema_cross +22.0% Every signal tracked in production, backtest-vs-reality published: https://tradingstrategies.work/live-tracking

🌡 Arena Pulse today: 49/100 — Neutral 🚦 Stage 3/5 · 🔥 F&G 50/100 · 📊 MVRV +0.8 Market undecided. https://tradingstrategies.work/dashboard/arena-pulse

1/8 VVV, the token of the AI service Venice, is up more than sixteenfold this year. Bitcoin is slightly down. The case for the token: using Venice's AI through DIEM locks up VVV. So what does a new DIEM cost today, and what does the market charge? 🧵 #AI #Crypto

8/8 Two numbers show whether usage starts pulling in VVV: the DIEM supply, 36,667 on 7 October, and the staking contract's issuance, 2m VVV a year. The full breakdown, with tokenomics and every monthly return: tradingstrategies.work/blog/venice-... #VeniceAI

1/6 Four days before Friday's $10.8bn bitcoin options expiry, the price has moved closer to max pain at 78,000. Is the expiry pulling it down? Since Saturday the gap shrank from 3.3 % to 2.5 %. This time the strike stood still and the price moved. 🧵 #bitcoin #options

6/6 Options price in more movement than bitcoin delivers: 30-day implied vol is 12.2 points above realised, up from 11.5 on Saturday. Wednesday: does 78,000 hold? tradingstrategies.work/dashboard/bi... Study the Past — Improve your Future 🥋 #backtesting

7/7 The full case, Ledger's statements and who carries the loss: tradingstrategies.work/blog/ledger-genuine-check-implant Not investment advice. Study the Past — Improve your Future 🥋 #CryptoSecurity

1/3 A coin just got listed on Binance. Should you buy it? 414 Binance listings since 2017 have been measured over 90 days. The median is not where the excitement suggests. 🧵 #altcoins #crypto

3/3 The listing base rate states that bias in the result itself, instead of leaving it out. Register by the end of October and your first month is Elite, free. No card, no subscription. tradingstrategies.work #crypto

🥋 Live Signals — 24 Oct 🔴 SELL SOLUSDT 2d: ema_cross +33.5% 🔴 SELL BTCUSDT 1d: OBV-MACD -2.2% Every signal tracked in production, backtest-vs-reality published: https://tradingstrategies.work/live-tracking

🌡 Arena Pulse today: 49/100 — Neutral 🚦 Stage 3/5 · 🔥 F&G 51/100 · 📊 MVRV +0.9 Market undecided. https://tradingstrategies.work/dashboard/arena-pulse

1/7 Altcoins are doubling, the altcoin-season gauge is jumping, and you hold mostly Bitcoin. Should you switch? Five checks help you decide. But first, what happened the last 13 times the market looked like this. 🧵 #altcoins #Bitcoin

6/7 Check 5: is a green light a buy signal? Used as an entry filter in 27 strategies, a green altcoin season helped 6 times, hurt 4 times and made no measurable difference 17 times. It describes the market. It does not pick your coin.

7/7 None of the five checks is a buy signal on its own. Together they show whether money is rotating out of Bitcoin or only a few coins are running. All 13 cases and the checklist: tradingstrategies.work/blog/altcoin... Study the Past — Improve your Future 🥋 #crypto

1/8 Bitcoin is drifting toward 78,000, the max pain level of Friday's $11bn options expiry. Is the expiry pulling the price down? A month ago the gap was 16 %. More than half of it closed because max pain climbed toward the price. 🧵 #bitcoin #options

8/8 Friday shows whether 78,000 holds. Next test: 25 Dec, 132,424 contracts, max pain 75,000, unchanged since 22 Sep. Watch whether it climbs like October's did. tradingstrategies.work/dashboard/bi... Study the Past — Improve your Future 🥋 #backtesting

8/8 Three numbers to watch: open positions without rewards, apps that bring retail traders, and Derive's share of the whole options market. The full analysis: tradingstrategies.work/blog/derive-... Study the Past — Improve your Future 🥋 #DeFi

1/3 A coin trades at twice its 200-day average and is up 50 % in a month. Ride it or take profit? 516 such runs on Binance pairs have been measured. What usually came next was not more of the same. 🧵 #altcoins #crypto

3/3 The asset snapshot flags when a coin is in such a run and shows this base rate next to it. Register by the end of October and your first month is Elite, free. No card, no subscription. tradingstrategies.work #crypto

Macro Regime jump: composite 57 → 26 (-31) · 🟡 Late Cycle Warning Composite 26/100. Top mover: Financial Conditions (-87). Chart + methodology → https://tradingstrategies.work/dashboard/macro-regime

🌡 Arena Pulse today: 54/100 — Neutral 🚦 Stage 3/5 · 🔥 F&G 68/100 · 📊 MVRV +1.0 Market undecided. https://tradingstrategies.work/dashboard/arena-pulse

1/7 Two ATR-based strategies, same raw idea: ride volatility. Keltner breaks out and lets its bands float. Supertrend ratchets its band up like a trailing stop. On the same aggregate, one pulls ahead. #ATR #TradingStrategy 🧵

1/4 Is Solana's big consensus upgrade really live now? Yes. Alpenglow has been running on mainnet since 21 October, 13:54 UTC. The first block under the new rules, slot 459,652,999, was certified by 446 of 654 validators. 🧵 #Solana #Alpenglow

4/4 SOL holders and stakers have nothing to do. For payments and trading, confirmations can get far faster, if the 150 ms hold up under real load. Solana's other promises, checked one by one: tradingstrategies.work/blog/solana-... #Crypto

1/6 Keltner Channel and Supertrend are two popular Bitcoin trend strategies. Both ride volatility with an ATR band. On daily candles since 2018 they earned about the same. At their worst, one was down 34 %, the other 53 %. That gap is what you are choosing. 🧵 #bitcoin #backtesting

6/6 Pick by the drop you can sit through, not by the return line. And check both on your own coin before trusting either. tradingstrategies.work/strategies/k... Study the Past — Improve your Future 🥋 #backtesting

9/9 Four questions before a record moves money: → how many signals in total? → who decided which counted, and when? → is the signal on a closed candle? → how many observations exist at all? Full record: tradingstrategies.work/blog/pi-cycl... #backtesting

🥋 Live Signals — 20 Oct 🔴 SELL LINKUSDT 2d: Smoothed Heiken Ashi +34.5% 🔴 SELL ETHUSDT 2d: ema_cross +27.9% Every signal tracked in production, backtest-vs-reality published: https://tradingstrategies.work/live-tracking

🌡 Arena Pulse today: 50/100 — Neutral 🚦 Stage 3/5 · 🔥 F&G 55/100 · 📊 MVRV +0.9 Market undecided. https://tradingstrategies.work/dashboard/arena-pulse

C5 — Seasonality Is Bitcoin's best month a pattern or a sample? The monthly heatmap, read by column: count the rows, that is how many Januaries there have been. Plus one dot per yearly low. A small sample with a memory. #bitcoin tradingstrategies.work/guide/chart-...

1/9 "USDC is coming to Bitcoin." That is the title of Alpen's post of 24 September on its deal with Circle. The dollars will not live on Bitcoin, and they are not live yet. What changes is where your BTC sits while you borrow against it. #Bitcoin #Stablecoins

9/9 Before you bridge BTC to borrow dollars, "is it on Bitcoin?" is the wrong question. Ask how many operators there are, who they are, and who holds the admin keys. The mechanism is public, the number and the names are not. Study the Past — Improve your Future 🥋 #Bitcoin

"That's no moon. That's a distribution."

1/7 How much does a 5× grid bot lose when the market turns? Furkan Yildirim says about 20 % of the stake, against +71 % in a rally. Rebuilt on BTC, ETH and SOL, the gain comes from leverage, not the grid, and a falling market costs more than half. 🧵 #GridTrading #Leverage

7/7 Running a 5× long grid? Then plan for losing 60 to 86 % of the margin in a downturn, not 20 %. What decides it is how far your range reaches below the entry. The full study, with all tables and the gold question: tradingstrategies.work/blog/5x-grid... #Backtesting

8/8 The number to watch: C-Chain fees, about 1,660 AVAX a day since validators priced out spam on 27 September, against about 28,000 new AVAX a day. Tech, tokenomics, holders and every monthly return: tradingstrategies.work/blog/avalanc... #Avalanche

1/8 AVAX rose 51 % in September, bitcoin 6 %. The headlines talk about Goldman, FIFA and $11bn of tokenized assets on Avalanche. The case behind it: every new chain on Avalanche needs AVAX. Until December 2024 that was true. What do the chains pay today? 🧵 #Avalanche #Crypto

8/8 For bitcoin, the number to watch is bitcoin per MSTR share, not the index. How it moved through the bear market: tradingstrategies.work/blog/strateg... Study the Past — Improve your Future 🥋 #Bitcoin

1/8 Strategy is about to be dropped from MSCI's global indexes. Does that pull billions out of bitcoin? The forced sale is smaller than one normal trading day in the stock. The bigger loss happened in January. 🧵 #Bitcoin #MSTR

🌡 Arena Pulse today: 50/100 — Neutral 🚦 Stage 3/5 · 🔥 F&G 59/100 · 📊 MVRV +0.9 Market undecided. https://tradingstrategies.work/dashboard/arena-pulse