ECFR European Power

buff.lyAn outsider within: The paradox of the Europe-Turkey relationship – European Council on Foreign RelationsTurkey is neither drifting away from the West nor is it coming home. It has become an embedded outsider: a middle power that has learned to build strategic auto

❗️ Turkey has become an embedded outsider: a middle power that builds strategic autonomy from inside the Western system. Europe should stop trying to resolve the contradiction and learn to capitalise on it. 🔗 buff.ly/3yqq2SK

buff.lyTomorrow’s market today: Why Europe needs to invest in AI compute – European Council on Foreign RelationsEurope won’t out-build America on AI data centres. But it should get ahead in pricing and financing its compute capacity

A Europe that depends on America for chips, cloud and the price of compute has little leverage left in trade and technology talks, writes Ivan Prokopiev buff.ly/ebL9GpQ

buff.lyNew beginnings in Belgrade: What’s next for Serbia’s students - European Council on Foreign RelationsSerbia’s student movement have ended Vucic’s 14-year rule. Europeans now need to support the new, inexperienced government to reform the captured state

Serbia’s student movement have ended Vucic’s 14-year rule. Europeans now need to support the new, inexperienced government to reform the captured state, writes @engjellushem.bsky.social @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social buff.ly/TYY3bMU

buff.lyRupture politics: How the EU and Canada can build “global communities” – European Council on Foreign RelationsThe vision Mark Carney has espoused needs the EU at its centre. This week decision-makers have the chance to make this happen

The geopolitical rupture the world is living through has already encouraged the EU to look outward, writes @ilketoygur.bsky.social buff.ly/P0wCSAs

ECFR European Power reposted

ecfr.euVan guard: How Europe can kick its global diesel dependence – European Council on Foreign RelationsA scrappage scheme for diesel vans could cut emissions and ease the geopolitical dependencies pushing up costs for Europeans

A scrappage scheme for diesel vans could cut emissions and ease the geopolitical dependencies pushing up costs for Europeans, write @noahjgordon.bsky.social and Alex Turnbull. @ecfrpower.bsky.social https://ecfr.eu/article/van-guard-how-europe-can-kick-its-global-diesel-dependence/

ecfr.euLula has won in Brazil, but Europe still needs to fight for Mercosur – European Council on Foreign RelationsLula’s fourth-term victory should keep EU-Mercosur alive—but Brussels cannot relax yet. The European Parliament must still approve the deal, and Europe needs to

Lula’s fourth-term victory should keep EU-Mercosur alive—but Brussels cannot relax yet. The European Parliament must still approve the deal, and Europe needs to offer deeper industrial cooperation with Brasilia, writes @alberto-rizzi.bsky.social ecfr.eu/article/lula...

While European rules are often seen as protecting citizens and the environment, Europeans question whether current systems allow businesses to develop at the speed required. How can Europe preserve the standards that define it while creating the conditions for greater innovation? 👇️

buff.lyFuture nostalgia: Europe’s unfinished song - European Council on Foreign RelationsECFR’s new research reveals Europeans are suffering from an imagination gap. Many people want to see Europe strong and flourishing—but fewer can picture a credi

🔗 buff.ly/R3fSw4g

🎧️ In the latest podcast episode, we discussed the European debate around the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). 🔗 buff.ly/hAVArF7

buff.lyVan guard: How Europe can kick its global diesel dependence – European Council on Foreign RelationsA scrappage scheme for diesel vans could cut emissions and ease the geopolitical dependencies pushing up costs for Europeans

European policymakers need a programme that aims directly at fossil fuel displacement, not just clean energy addition. A targeted trade-in programme could do the job, writes @noahjgordon.bsky.social buff.ly/nZmaifn

buff.lyThe more Putin escalates his attacks on Europe, the more Europe should support Ukraine – European Council on Foreign RelationsMoscow’s imperialist strongman believes decadent European democracies can be cowed. Our job is to prove him wrong

While we in the rest of Europe must prepare as best we can to defend ourselves against every kind of hybrid attack, the central thrust of our response should be to redouble our support for Ukraine, writes @fromtga.bsky.social @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social buff.ly/9p5xDHK

Europe won’t out-build America on AI data centres. But it should get ahead in pricing and financing its compute capacity 👇️ buff.ly/279Ti1k

ECFR European Power reposted

ecfr.euTomorrow’s market today: Why Europe needs to invest in AI compute – European Council on Foreign RelationsEurope won’t out-build America on AI data centres. But it should get ahead in pricing and financing its compute capacity

A Europe that depends on America for chips, cloud and the price of compute has little leverage left in trade and technology talks, writes Ivo Prokopiev. @ecfrpower.bsky.social https://ecfr.eu/article/tomorrows-market-today-why-europe-needs-to-invest-in-ai-compute/

ECFR European Power reposted

bit.lyTowards a new European energy architecture – European Council on Foreign RelationsEurope’s future depends on the energy choices it makes today. Can Europe secure cleaner, more affordable and more reliable energy, and build the infrastructure

Update! Join us! 29 October - 9:30-13:30 How can Europe reduce its energy dependence and strengthen its grids? Which external dependencies can it accept, and where does it need greater control? @ecfrmadrid.bsky.social Register here ⬇️ https://bit.ly/47wiOiK

buff.lyElectric collective: Europe’s clean energy future without Russia – European Council on Foreign RelationsThe EU and member states must agree a high-level energy diplomacy framework and complete the phase-out of Russian fossil fuels.

1/4 Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Europe has transformed its energy diplomacy. The EU sharply reduced its dependence on Russian fossil fuels and secured new supplies around the world. But important vulnerabilities remain. buff.ly/vJ3YHkk

3/4 The next step should be more joint European action writes @szymonkardas.bsky.social. Member states can pool demand, coordinate negotiations and use their collective weight to secure better deals — while putting clean energy, hydrogen and CRM at the centre of future partnerships.

4/4 Europe has become better at managing energy crises. It now needs to get ahead of the next one. That means completing the phase-out of Russian fossil fuels, concluding more binding clean-energy agreements and building a common EU energy diplomacy framework.

2/4 Our Energy Deals Tracker shows that much of this diplomacy was led by individual member states and focused heavily on gas. That helped Europe through the immediate crisis, but also created new dependencies and locked in fossil-fuel use.

buff.lyEurope’s next budget fight – European Council on Foreign RelationsMark Leonard welcomes Guntram Wolf and Pierre Heilbronn to discuss what’s at stake for Europe in the EU budget negotiations

🎧 How the EU budget is put together, and why this round is proving so hard to close. Can the two camps find common ground? Where do negotiations stand today, and what could help clear the way to an agreement? 👇️ buff.ly/hAVArF7

buff.lyWhy half-measures won’t solve Europe’s data-centre energy crisis – European Council on Foreign RelationsDemand for electricity and grid access is surging as AI and data centres expand. European policymakers must urgently set energy-performance standards and keep t

1/4 Europe’s AI ambitions are colliding with its energy transition, writes @matsengstrom.bsky.social. Data centres, green hydrogen, heat pumps and EVs are all competing for electricity and grid access, with a tremendous projected supply gap 🧵 buff.ly/oWqcGrU

3/4@matsengstrom.bsky.social argues that voluntary measures are not enough. The EU should introduce binding energy-performance standards for data centres, improve transparency on their electricity use, and give strategic industrial decarbonisation faster access to the grid.

4/4 Europe does not have to choose between digitalisation and decarbonisation. But it needs to coordinate them by making AI and data centres more energy efficient while protecting the power needed for Europe’s wider green transition.

2/4 The problem is not only how much power data centres use, but who gets access first. If grid capacity goes to the highest bidder, energy-hungry tech companies could slow the decarbonisation of heavy industry.

buff.ly“Secure and controllable”: How Beijing is writing Europe out of its systems – European Council on Foreign RelationsChinese utilities are stripping European technology out of their critical infrastructure on security grounds, while Chinese suppliers are trying to expand acros

1/4 China is removing European technology from parts of its critical infrastructure and often even explicitly on security grounds. @jankaoertel.bsky.social At the same time, Chinese suppliers continue to expand in Europe. What should Europe learn from this asymmetry? 🧵 buff.ly/kkWxdxK

3/4 If China considers foreign control of power systems or software too risky, European authorities should ask whether Chinese suppliers create similar vulnerabilities in Europe. Security assessments should therefore be coordinated at EU level, not left to 27 different approaches.

4/4 This argument also changes what “reciprocity” should mean. Europe should not simply wait for China to become more open. It should protect critical infrastructure where necessary and ensure Chinese firms do not enjoy access that European companies are systematically denied in China.

2/4 Beijing’s approach is systematic: identify foreign dependencies, build domestic alternatives, then replace technologies it considers a security risk. That gives Europe something useful: a map of the vulnerabilities China itself takes seriously.

buff.lyIf Marine Le Pen wins: A European guide to a far-right France – European Council on Foreign RelationsA Le Pen-led France would mean major changes to European politics. Here's how political leaders can begin to prepare.

A Rassemblement National government would be hostile to the EU and a disruptive partner on numerous issues facing Europe; including on Russia, enlargement, climate and migration 👇️ buff.ly/NNFmGGo

ECFR European Power reposted

ECFR Africa

@ecfrafrica.bsky.social

👋 Greetings from Rome, where we welcomed a small group of participants working across policy, business, finance, diplomacy and research today. Our fellows shared some insights from our @ecfr.eu work and we discussed the future of Europe-Africa minerals cooperation. @ecfrpower.bsky.social

The perspective featured below reflects a broader theme in the research: the challenge of maintaining public support for complex policy transitions. How can Europe deliver necessary transitions while ensuring citizens feel supported rather than burdened by the changes they bring? 👇️

🔗 buff.ly/R3fSw4g

Many Europeans continue to value the idea of a shared European community, but are less confident about its long-term trajectory. What would it take to turn moments of European togetherness into a lasting sense of common purpose? 👇️

🔗https://buff.ly/R3fSw4g

buff.lyMiddle powerhouse: A new blueprint for British internationalism – European Council on Foreign RelationsBritain is the custodian of a global order that no longer exists. Its international approach should now centre innovative cooperation and building strong coalit

Most importantly, Britain should renew—not retreat from—its longstanding commitment to internationalism and take the lead in shaping cross-border cooperation, writes @anthonydworkin.bsky.social buff.ly/M8YIlfU

ECFR European Power reposted

📢 PUBLIC DEBATE | @hablamosdeuropa.bsky.social 🗓️ 29 October ⏰ 09:30-13:30 📍 European Commission Representation, Madrid How can Europe secure cleaner, more affordable and more reliable energy? Register here ⬇️ https://ecfr.eu/event/towards-a-new-european-energy-architecture/

buff.lyMitigate, deter, escalate: Europe’s options against US economic coercion – European Council on Foreign RelationsThe US under Trump will seek new ways to coerce Europe economically. Here is how Europeans can resist the pressure and emerge stronger for it.

1/4 As US tariffs reach their limits, economic pressure on Europe may increasingly move into finance, energy and technology. Our new paper asks how Europe can prepare and argues that it has more options than it often assumes. 🧵 buff.ly/drQtrcD

3/4 Europe also does not always need to convince Washington directly. Financial markets, energy interests and big tech can transmit pressure more effectively, turning European measures into signals that matter to decision-makers in the US.

4/4 The goal should be bigger than surviving the next confrontation. Europe can use moments of coercion to build lasting leverage through stronger economic-security tools, technological capacity and greater resilience.

2/4 @agathedemarais.com, @tobiasgehrke.bsky.social and @jitorreblanca.eurosky.social test three types of response: mitigation, deterrence and escalation. The first lesson: act on flows, not stocks — from new investment and LNG contracts to financial exchanges and data transfers.

buff.lyGas-lit: The Three Seas Initiative is out of step with a clean-energy future – European Council on Foreign RelationsThe Three Seas Initiative helped cut Europe’s dependence on Russian gas—but five of its nine flagship energy projects are still gas-related. The initiative shou

Gas infrastructure and diversification corridors dominate the energy portfolio; five out of nine “flagship” energy projects are related to gas, writes @szymonkardas.bsky.social buff.ly/TvG4wyD

Chinese utilities are stripping European technology out of their critical infrastructure on security grounds, while Chinese suppliers are trying to expand across Europe, writes @jankaoertel.bsky.social. buff.ly/kkWxdxK

ECFR European Power reposted

ecfr.eu“Secure and controllable”: How Beijing is writing Europe out of its systems – European Council on Foreign RelationsChinese utilities are stripping European technology out of their critical infrastructure on security grounds, while Chinese suppliers are trying to expand acros

buff.lyUnlikely Europeans: The hidden voters who could sway France’s presidential election – European Council on Foreign RelationsAhead of the 2027 presidential election, pro-European candidates may find unexpected opportunities among voters of both the radical left and the far right

There is a potential European-security wedge within the RN electorate that other candidates could benefit from, writes @pawelzerka.bsky.social buff.ly/6lhT9Uo

buff.lyIt’s not easy being green: Breaking Europe’s climate spending deadlock – European Council on Foreign RelationsThe EU’s next budget will shape its future. Member states must strike a grand bargain to decarbonise Europe and, by extension, drive EU security and competitive

1/4 The Irish Presidency’s revised negotiating box has brought the next EU budget to centre stage. As governments weigh defence, competitiveness, cohesion and agriculture, our paper argues that green industry must be part of the bargain. 🧵 buff.ly/zaKZCP7

3/4 @matsengstrom.bsky.social argues that Europe can strike a green grand bargain. Green investment can boost competitiveness, create jobs and strengthen Europe’s resilience, while supporting regions through the transition.

4/4 The choice is therefore not "climate or competitiveness", "defence or cohesion". Projects in clean steel, renewable energy and green innovation can serve all of these goals, if the next EU budget gives them the scale and stability they need.

2/4 The Commission has already proposed more support for industrial decarbonisation, clean tech and cross-border infrastructure. But the risk is familiar. When MFF negotiations tighten, forward-looking spending on research, innovation and the green transition can be among the first areas squeezed.

buff.lySánchez’s biggest gamble yet – European Council on Foreign RelationsMark Leonard welcomes Carla Hobbs and Nacho Torreblanca to discuss how Spain’s upcoming election could change the country and Europe

🎧️ Listen to our new podcast! Why did Sánchez call the election now? Where do the polls stand? And what are the central issues that Spaniards will vote on? buff.ly/s5srphx

ECFR European Power reposted