Dr Edward Hill

Dr Edward Hill

@edmhill.bsky.social

Researcher in mathematical epidemiology & infectious disease modelling. Affiliations: Civic Health Innovation Labs (CHIL) @livunichil.bsky.social, @thepandemicinst.bsky.social, @livuni-phps.bsky.social‬, @livuni-iph.bsky.social, @liverpooluni.bsky.social.

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1/ 🎬 That is a wrap for our Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences workshop on “Modelling behaviour for global challenges: epidemics and energy systems”! 👏 With thanks to all who have contributed to our programme the past four weeks! 🔗 workshop webpage: www.newton.ac.uk/event/mhbw02/

Dr Edward Hill reposted

Weekly respiratory viruses update - week 42. Respiratory illness activity remains at baseline or low levels, although seasonal increases are being observed. ➡️ SARS-CoV-2 circulation - 𝗟𝗢𝗪. ➡️ Influenza activity - 𝗟𝗢𝗪. ➡️ RSV circulation - 𝗩𝗘𝗥𝗬 𝗟𝗢𝗪 𝗟𝗘𝗩𝗘𝗟. More info: erviss.org #IDsky #EpiSky

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Seasonal influenza vaccine uptake in GP patients: 2- & 3-year-old children 📊 Data up to end of week 42 2026 (18 Oct 2026), from 98.8% of GP practices reporting weekly vaccine uptake data ▶️ 26.0% in all 2 year olds ▶️ 25.8% in all 3 year olds 💉 Uptake vs equivalent week in 2025/26: ⬇️

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Virus antigenic characterisation ▶️ A(H1N1)pdm09: 5 antigenically characterised. 3 similar to reference viruses representative of A/Missouri/11/2025 (H1N1)pdm09-like Northern Hemisphere 2026/27 (H1N1)pdm09 vaccine strains. ▶️ A(H3N2) & B/Victoria: None antigenically characterised.

Vaccine uptake in GP patients 💉 Provisional data up to 18 Oct 2026 from 98.6% of GP practices reporting weekly vaccine uptake ▶️ 65+ years: 44.1% (⬇️ vs equivalent week in 2025/2026) ▶️ Under 65 years in clinical risk group: 19.9% (⬇️ vs equiv wk 25/26) ▶️ Pregnant women: 26.0% (⬆️ vs equiv wk 25/26)

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Virus genetic characterisation 🗓️ Between 12-18 Oct 2026 🧬 UKHSA respiratory virus unit has genetically characterised 242 seasonal influenza viruses ▶️ Most flu A (220/242) ▶️ ~67% of the flu A is A(H1N1)pdm09 (148/220)

Virus antigenic characterisation 🧫 Uses haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays. 🛡️ Compares how similar currently circulating influenza viruses are to strains included in Northern Hemisphere 2026/27 seasonal influenza vaccine strains. 🔎 Monitors for changes in circulating influenza viruses.

Influenza activity level (AL) indicators 🔬 Lab surveillance influenza positivity: ↔️ (AL: Low) 🥼 Influenza-like illnesses GP consultations: ↔️ (AL: Baseline) 🧬 GP swabbing positivity: ↔️ (AL: Baseline) 🏥 Hospital admissions: ↗️ (AL: Baseline) 🚑 ICU admissions: ↔️ (AL: Baseline)

Dr Edward Hill reposted

Dr Edward Hill reposted

🔦 Publication spotlight: “The north–south divide in English mortality, 1981–2024: a longitudinal population study” ❓ The north–south mortality divide in England has persisted for several decades. Have there been any recent changes in England in “northern excess mortality”?

thelancet.comThe north–south divide in English mortality, 1981–2024: a longitudinal population studyOver the past four decades, England's regional mortality inequalities have widened among working‑age adults, with more rapid increases among female individuals than male individuals up to 2020 (before...

Dr Edward Hill reposted

GSIDD serves the global community of researchers, practitioners and educators in infectious disease dynamics. ➕ Follow us for updates. 📺 Watch event recordings: www.youtube.com/@GS-IDD/videos 📧 Sign up for our mailing list: www.gsidd.org/join-us 🔗 View our webpage: www.gsidd.org

youtube.comGlobal Society for Infectious Disease DynamicsRecordings from events of the Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD).

Dr Edward Hill reposted

How do immune responses shape epidemics? 🎙 Daniel Stocks, Bristol Chair: Alin Morariu, JUNIPER Fellow, Lancaster “An immunity-driven modelling framework for epidemics of non-sterilizing infections” 📅 Wednesday 21 October, 2pm UK Email to register: juniper@maths.cam.ac.uk

Dr Edward Hill reposted

In a new blog, @microbiologysociety.org go behind the scenes to interview @sarahkwalsh.bsky.social and co-authors about our recent paper on H5N1 infections in cattle, and what this means for monitoring avian influenza

Microbiology Society@microbiologysociety.org

🔍 Can all cattle breeds carry bird flu? Dr Sarah Walsh, Rebecca Ross and their team take us behind the scenes of their recent research investigating how much of a threat avian influenza virus might pose to cattle around the world. Read the blog here 🔗 https://microb.io/3UjYJsN

📰 DEFRA avian influenza update on 19 Oct 2026. 🐔 HPAI H5N1 confirmed in commercial poultry near Belford, Northumberland. 📊 First confirmed HPAI H5N1 case in poultry in UK in 2026 to 2027 season [NB: Season is recorded from 1 October to 30 September each year]. 🔗: www.gov.uk/guidance/bir...

gov.ukBird flu (avian influenza): latest situation in EnglandFind out about the latest bird flu situation in England and guidance for bird keepers and the public.

📄 "A spatial transmission model for evaluating interventions during highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks" ✍ Authors: Fanny Bergström | Ed Hill | Cecilia Rago | Chris Davis | Mikę Tildesley | Robin Thompson. ℹ️ Our preprint from 2026 HPAI Modelling Challenge, organised by WiLiMan-ID project.

biorxiv.orgA spatial transmission model for evaluating interventions during highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaksDuring infectious disease outbreaks, epidemiological models can be used to project future outbreak dynamics and to explore scenarios under different control measures. Here, we present the spatially ex...

🔎 We present the spatially explicit avian influenza transmission model that involved evaluating control measures (preventive & reactive culling, confinement and restocking bans) during a hypothetical avian influenza outbreak. 👇 Preprint on the HPAI modelling challenge from the challenge organisers.

biorxiv.orgA modelling challenge to improve preparedness for highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemics: objectives, design and synthetic data generationHighly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is among the most significant disease threats to poultry worldwide. Modelling challenges, where independent teams address a common epidemiological scenario, ca...

🦆 High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza – WOAH Sit Rep 87 #IDSky #OneHealth 🧪 🗓️ Covers Sep 2026 📊 Outbreaks reported in Americas, Asia & Europe: 20 in poultry; 30 in non-poultry birds & mammals. ▶️ Estimated total of 467,458 poultry birds died or culled in Sep 2026. 🔗: www.woah.org/app/uploads/...

Dr Edward Hill reposted

🚨 PhD funding opportunity through the Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC) ‘Crafting Care for People, Place and Planet’ Doctoral Focal College. ℹ️ Recruitment for the second cohort of AHRC ‘Crafting Care’ Doctoral Focal College PhD students launched on the 15 September 2026.

ahrc-crafting-care.ac.ukHow to ApplyThe competition for October 2027 Entry is now open! The application process has two stages: Expressions of Interest are invited from prospective candidates by the 1st December 2026, after which sho…
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Seasonal influenza vaccine uptake in GP patients: 2- & 3-year-old children 📊 Data up to end of week 41 2026 (11 Oct 2026), from 98.6% of GP practices reporting weekly vaccine uptake data ▶️ 21.4% in all 2 year olds ▶️ 21.3% in all 3 year olds 💉 Uptake vs equivalent week in 2025/26: ⬇️

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Virus genetic characterisation 🗓️ Between 05-11 Oct 2026 🧬 UKHSA respiratory virus unit has genetically characterised 177 seasonal influenza viruses ▶️ Most flu A (170/177) ▶️ ~65% of the flu A is A(H1N1)pdm09 (111/170)

Virus antigenic characterisation 🧫 Uses haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays. 🛡️ Compares how similar currently circulating influenza viruses are to strains included in Northern Hemisphere 2026/27 seasonal influenza vaccine strains. 🔎 Monitors for changes in circulating influenza viruses.

Influenza activity level (AL) indicators 🔬 Lab surveillance influenza positivity: ↔️ (AL: Low) 🥼 Influenza-like illnesses GP consultations: ⬆️ (AL: Baseline) 🧬 GP swabbing positivity: ↔️ (AL: Baseline) 🏥 Hospital admissions: ↔️ (AL: Baseline) 🚑 ICU admissions: ↔️ (AL: Baseline)

Dr Edward Hill reposted

Dr Edward Hill reposted

Hard to find the words tonight. Helen was an amazing journalist, smart, hard-working, clear-eyed. She was also a kind, generous person and a good friend. Sad beyond words.

Jason Ukman@jasonukman.bsky.social

Helen Branswell was a gift — to family and friends, to colleagues, and to masses of people whose lives were made better by the work to which she was so devoted. I was lucky to know her. www.statnews.com/2026/10/13/h...

Dr Edward Hill reposted

We are restarting publishing weekly updates on the respiratory viruses trends across Europe. Weekly respiratory viruses update - week 40. - SARS-CoV-2 circulation is 𝗜𝗡𝗖𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗦𝗘𝗗. - Influenza circulation and hospitalisations remain at 𝗟𝗢𝗪 𝗟𝗘𝗩𝗘𝗟. - RSV circulation remains at 𝗟𝗢𝗪 𝗟𝗘𝗩𝗘𝗟. 🔗 erviss.org

Dr Edward Hill reposted

Replying to @livuni-phps.bsky.social

ℹ️ Inaugural Lectures 💬 Provide an opportunity to recognise and celebrate the achievements of professors in the Institute of Population Health. 📹 Previous inaugural lectures are available to watch here, with Ben’s to be added in due course: www.liverpool.ac.uk/population-h...

liverpool.ac.uk Inaugural Lectures | Institute of Population Health | University of Liverpool

📣 The @juniper-network.bsky.social seminar series is back for the 2026/27 academic year! 📺 View previous JUNIPER seminar talks on the JUNIPER seminars YouTube channel: www.youtube.com/@junipercons... 🔗 JUNIPER seminars webpage: juniper.maths.org/seminars

youtube.comJuniper Consortium Seminars
JUNIPER@juniper-network.bsky.social

📺 How should pandemic models account for healthcare pressure beyond bed numbers? JUNIPER Affiliate @nathandoyle815.bsky.social (Warwick) explores flexible capacity constraints and robust pandemic control strategies. Watch his JUNIPER seminar: youtu.be/wIgAoA1D-oI #JUNIPER

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6/ Seasonal influenza vaccine uptake in GP patients: 2- & 3-year-old children 📊 Data up to end of week 40 2026 (04 Oct 2026), from 98.8% of GP practices reporting weekly vaccine uptake data ▶️ 16.5% in all 2 year olds ▶️ 16.4% in all 3 year olds 💉 Uptake vs equivalent week in 2025/26: ⬇️

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4/ Virus antigenic characterisation 🧫 Uses haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays. 🛡️ Compares how similar currently circulating influenza viruses are to strains included in Northern Hemisphere 2026/27 seasonal influenza vaccine strains. 🔎 Monitors for changes in circulating influenza viruses.

5/ Vaccine uptake in GP patients 💉 Provisional data up to 04 Oct 2026 from 98.7% of GP practices reporting weekly vaccine uptake ▶️ 65+ years: 9.9% (⬇️ vs equivalent week in 2025/2026) ▶️ Under 65 years in clinical risk group: 4.9% (⬇️ vs equiv wk 25/26) ▶️ Pregnant women: 16.4% (↔️ vs equiv wk 25/26)

2/ Influenza activity level (AL) indicators 🔬 Lab surveillance influenza positivity: ⬆️ (AL: Low) 🥼 Influenza-like illnesses GP consultations: ⬆️ (AL: Baseline) 🧬 GP swabbing positivity: ⬆️ (AL: Baseline) 🏥 Hospital admissions: No trend (AL: Baseline) 🚑 ICU admissions: No trend (AL: Baseline)

3/ Virus genetic characterisation 🗓️ Between 30 Aug 2026 – 04 Oct 2026 🧬 UKHSA respiratory virus unit has genetically characterised 92 seasonal influenza viruses ▶️ Most flu A (85/92) ▶️ ~52% of the flu A is A(H1N1)pdm09 (44/85)

📰 DEFRA avian influenza update on 02 Oct 2026. 🐔 HPAI H5N5 confirmed in commercial backyard poultry at a premises in Isle of Lewis, Scotland. 📊 First confirmed HPAI case in poultry in UK in 2026 to 2027 season. ❌ Great Britain has lost its freedom from highly pathogenic avian influenza status.

gov.ukBird flu (avian influenza): latest situation in EnglandFind out about the latest bird flu situation in England and guidance for bird keepers and the public.

ℹ️ Great scientific discussions at the symposium for The Pandemic Institute-Hong Kong Partnership, supported by The Shaw Foundation Hong Kong. @thepandemicinst.bsky.social 💫 Featured a plenary talk by Kelvin To (The University of Hong Kong) on "Emerging infections: looking back and moving forward".

Dr Edward Hill reposted

ℹ️ Our IDD Connect Series brings together the global infectious disease dynamics community through region-focused sessions. 📹 Watch previous sessions on Oceania, Africa, Asia & North America: www.youtube.com/@GS-IDD 📣 Future planned sessions: ‘IDD Connect Europe’; ‘ IDD Connect Latin America’.

youtube.comGlobal Society for Infectious Disease DynamicsRecordings from events of the Global Society for Infectious Disease Dynamics (GSIDD).

Dr Edward Hill reposted

📣 Upcoming inaugural lecture: Ben Barr (Professor of Applied Public Health) 💷 “The Epidemiology of Money: How money - and what governments do with it - shapes health and health inequalities”. 🗓️ 17:30-19:00, Thu 08 Oct 2026. 📍 Central Teaching Hub - Lecture Theatre C, University of Liverpool.

ticketsource.com"Professor Ben Barr - Inaugural lecture" at Central Teaching Hub - Lecture Theatre CTickets are now available for Professor Ben Barr - Inaugural lecture at Central Teaching Hub - Lecture Theatre C, University of Liverpool on Thursday 8th October 2026 at 5:30PM. Click the link for fur...