Nikolas Gvosdev

nationalinterest.orgWhy the US Should Embrace ‘Techno-Strategic Power’Technological changes will give an edge to defense-oriented, flexible, and scalable capabilities.

8 Aug

Learning to embrace #technostrategic power ... my latest: nationalinterest.org/feature/why-...

lnkd.inFlurry of recent commentary about how the West can inflict a strategic defeat on Russia in Ukraine--if only more military aid and sanctions pressure is applied. As I see it, though, the West… | Nikol...Flurry of recent commentary about how the West can inflict a strategic defeat on Russia in Ukraine--if only more military aid and sanctions pressure is applied. As I see it, though, the West increase...

This also points to another reality: Western aid/support for Ukraine has largely hit its upper limits, in part because of the constraints imposed by the crises in the Middle East: lnkd.in/p/gX2PPePV

Nikolas Gvosdev@fpriorbis.bsky.social

A consistent #geopolitical and #geoeconomic rule of thumb: the United States cannot simultaneously pressure both Iran and Russia. The flurry of talk and leaks about possible new Russia-U.S. energy arrangements leads me to think : 1/ lnkd.in/p/gNCWRspw

lnkd.in#geopolitical #geoeconomic | Nikolas GvosdevA consistent #geopolitical and #geoeconomic rule of thumb: the United States cannot simultaneously pressure both Iran and Russia. The flurry of talk and leaks about possible new Russia-U.S. energy arr...

that 1) resumption of active combat operations in the Middle East is going to occur and 2) the fallout and damage is expected to impact global commodities markets--so keeping Russian options open and available is a guiding principle. 2/

Nikolas Gvosdev reposted

buff.lyHow the Gamification of the Battlefield Is Reshaping WarExplore the evolving role of war in the modern battlefield where gamification influences military strategies and performance.

16h

🆕 How the Gamification of the Battlefield is Reshaping War by Lionel Beehner and Oleskii Poltorakov #OrbisJournal

Nikolas Gvosdev reposted

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🗓️ Member Briefing | Tuesday, November 3 | 12:00 PM EST As winter approaches, the war in Ukraine is entering a critical phase. Eurasia Director Emily Holland and Senior Fellow Rob Lee will examine military developments, drone campaigns, evolving demands, and strategic choices facing both sides. ⬇️

Nikolas Gvosdev reposted

buff.lyShuffling the boardState Duma approves major cabinet changes that strengthen the role of the Finance Ministry

The Russian State Duma approved five changes made to Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin's federal government lineup. The new appointees displayed a willingness to undertake actions that pleased the Kremlin, such as suppressing regional opposition. More in the latest #BearMarketBrief

asiatimes.comFrance’s debt troubles expose cracks in Europe’s fiscal union - Asia TimesSubscribe now with a one-month trial for only $1, then enjoy the first year at an exclusive rate of just $99. Germany resists as France’s debt

Per @asiatimes, is Japan's efforts on space cooperation implicitly a response to this? Comments from JAXA head Hiroshi Yamakawa about imperative of autonomous access to space and activity in space, and need for satellite development. asiatimes.com/2026/10/fran...

Nikolas Gvosdev@fpriorbis.bsky.social

Four years ago (!) warning that Starlink should only be seen as a temporary solution in part because of it being a private company … x.com/fpri_orbis/s...

x.comNikolas Gvosdev (@FPRI_Orbis) on X@ERohatinsky @thehill I see strong elements of “I provided a service, you are now dependent on that service, so pay up.” @elonmusk like so many other tech firms (#BayraktarTb2, etc.) saw 🇺🇦 as validat...

Re: Zelensky refinery ceasefire plan: Putin believes strikes on refineries are acceptable costs and Russia benefits from suspensions of these types of aid … esp. with more evidence Moscow is able to outsource its refining capabilities to countries Ukraine cannot strike.

Same can be said for Brazil, in this case ignoring that Lula’s poor relations with Trump do not mean he will reevaluate his position on Russia-Brazil relations.

Nikolas Gvosdev@fpriorbis.bsky.social

Tired of simplistic analysis that says SL represents automatic geopolitical change. Russia/China relationship with Serbia is institutional not personal. We need to avoid blue team/red team framings …

buff.lyGermany's Defense Shift: Merz, NATO, and Rearmament - Foreign Policy Research InstituteHowever, with the Russia-Ukraine war continuing just 1500km from the country’s eastern borders, and America’s historical support of NATO uncertain once again

In this piece @EmilyJHolland charting the German defense shift for @FPRI ; at @asiatimesonline @DiegoFassnacht questions Germany’s ability to finance this …

Foreign Policy Research Institute@fpri.bsky.social

🆕 Germany's Defense Shift: Merz, NATO, and Rearmament by Emily Holland

Four years ago (!) warning that Starlink should only be seen as a temporary solution in part because of it being a private company … x.com/fpri_orbis/s...

linkedin.comThe Man in the Middle of Trump’s Deeply Conflicted Ukraine Policy | Nikolas GvosdevWe've gotten so many conflicting stories about Starlink in the past week, as well as who ordered what, that hard to tell what is the real story. As I noted on the other social media platforms, what Sh...

More on this here: www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

Nikolas Gvosdev@fpriorbis.bsky.social

Important verification of the organizational process perspective in this article,that despite statements and announcements organizations continue to carry out their instructions (in this case support for Ukraine) up to the point explicit instructions to the contrary are received

MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦@maks23.bsky.social

🇺🇸🇺🇦CIA continues to support Ukraine despite Trump's constant attempts to improve relations with Putin, - The Atlantic CIA provides Ukraine with information to prepare strikes on Russia, and reports on the approach of missiles and drones. CIA operations against Russia have become "much more active."

www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

linkedin.comThanks to George Voloshin, CAMS CGSS for this fascinating assessment, moving beyond the knee-jerk reactions to look and explore the loopholes and roundabouts that facilitated Novatek's involvement...Thanks to George Voloshin, CAMS CGSS for this fascinating assessment, moving beyond the knee-jerk reactions to look and explore the loopholes and roundabouts that facilitated Novatek's involvement in ...

nationalinterest.orgWhy a Russia Gas Deal Can’t Buy Peace in UkrainePrematurely restarting Europe’s energy trade with Russia will only reward Russia’s aggression without securing meaningful changes in its behavior.

The Sefcovic formula--Russia as supplier, Europe as consumer, Ukraine as connector--is no longer operative.

Andreas Umland@umland.eurosky.social

The idea of bringing peace to Eastern Europe through renewed energy cooperation is naive and rests on false assumptions. @epik-ukraine.bsky.social @foreignpolicy.bsky.social @cfr.org @houseforeign.bsky.social @fpri.bsky.social @fpriorbis.bsky.social @defense-of-ukraine.bsky.social

linkedin.comAnalysis of developments in Oslo and St. Petersburg this past week in Asia Times from James Davis: --Zelensky was confronted with the reality that two major political gambles had failed (drone… | Sou...Analysis of developments in Oslo and St. Petersburg this past week in Asia Times from James Davis: --Zelensky was confronted with the reality that two major political gambles had failed (drone econom...

The U.S.-Europe-Ukraine-Russia dance continues ... www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...

www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

washingtonpost.comOpinion | Why Trump is failing to make Iran flinchEven with inflation soaring and its economy cracking, Tehran’s strategy remains the same.

Thoughts: 1) measures feelings but not strength/salience; 2) sharing of intelligence is a low cost, low-risk proposition and other polls show support beyond provision of aid drops. 3) not seeing where Ukraine issue will cause voter to change. Ds/Rs will vote no matter Trump 1/

Business Ukraine magazine @businessukraine.bsky.social

A new poll confirms that Americans overwhelmingly back Ukraine over Russia, including MAGA voters. This makes Trump’s relentless pro-Putin positioning and his attacks on Ukraine even more inexplicable and suspicious. It is also hard to think of anything less likely to win votes

position on Ukraine/Russia. Will need to see polling data that corresponds to actual midterm voting where Ukraine support influenced voters and where Rs who don’t support Ukraine or who won’t pressure Trump were defeated because of that issue. 2/

@radiofreetom.bsky.social

In contrast we have very clear correlation where Mideast policy stands HAVE contributed to defeat of incumbents. 3/

Nikolas Gvosdev reposted

Tom Nichols

October 23 Happy Fallout Day

linkedin.comWhen Our Minds Go Nuclear: Rethinking Nuclear Strategy Through the Psychology of Risk and Decision-Making - Texas National Security Review | Nikolas GvosdevWhen I see people I think of serious commentators questioning why we need to engage in strategic stability talks with Putin and Xi; or who think we should be willing to entertain more risk in order to...

Preserving generational Cold War nuclear policymaking experience … www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

linkedin.com#fracturedglobalization | Nikolas GvosdevThe reconfiguration along geopolitical lines is another indicator of #fracturedglobalization.

The reconfiguration along geopolitical lines is another indicator of #fracturedglobalization … www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

linkedin.comExclusive | Putin Floats a Summit With Trump and Xi to Discuss Ukraine Deal | South Shore ConsultingThe The Wall Street Journal (Lingling Wei, Alex Leary, Thomas Grove and Josh Dawsey) reporting that Vladimir Putin is proposing to Donald Trump that they hold a trilateral meeting with Xi Jinping. ht...

Xi reportedly proposed this to Putin last month in Bishkek ... www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...

The Wall Street Journal@wsj.com

Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed that he, President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping meet next month to attempt to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine that would favor Moscow, said people familiar with the discussions.

on.wsj.comExclusive | Putin Floats a Summit With Trump and Xi to Discuss Ukraine DealUkraine’s Zelensky would not be included in the proposed talks, as Russia’s leader seeks to negotiate an end to the conflict that favors Moscow.

x.comAsia Times (@asiatimesonline) on XA Trump-Putin-Xi #ShenzhenSummit could elevate Beijing from participant to broker in the #UkraineWar while sidelining Kyiv and #Europe. Bringing #China into the talks makes sense, but letting Xi host ...

More on this … x.com/asiatimesonl...

linkedin.comSign Up | LinkedIn500 million+ members | Manage your professional identity. Build and engage with your professional network. Access knowledge, insights and opportunities.

#Yttrium … www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

x.comRobert Friedland (@robert_ivanhoe) on XThe foundation of the last metals supercycle (2002 - 2011) was the rapid industrialisation of China… new cities, skyscrapers, railways, cars, power grids and the mass creation of a new middle class. B...

The foundation of the last metals supercycle (2002 - 2011) was the rapid industrialisation of China… Back then, it was a DEMAND story. The supercycle we are in today, is bigger, more global… and what makes it different is that it’s a SUPPLY story. x.com/robert_ivanh...

foreignaffairs.comThe Chokepoint TrapNiall Ferguson, the leading historian of empire, former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, and AI scholar Lisa Klassen offer a novel reframing of the US-China AI race in the history of world empires. The author...

"Economic efficiencies that seem natural today, such as the seamlessness of international financial transactions, may evaporate as governments equate global infrastructures with national insecurity." #fracturedglobalization

Nikolas Gvosdev@fpriorbis.bsky.social

"In a world in which everything is connected, nearly everything could be considered a chokepoint." This is a driving force behind #fracturedglobalization. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

"In a world in which everything is connected, nearly everything could be considered a chokepoint." This is a driving force behind #fracturedglobalization. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

x.comMohammed Soliman (@ThisIsSoliman) on XWhat happens in the Gulf doesn't stay in the Gulf.. Yesterday I joined @BeckyCNN on @CNN from Abu Dhabi to talk through where the region stands. Yemen: The Saudi defense minister's visit to Abu Dhabi matters. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have more in common on Yemen than before, and the Houthis are pushin…

Interesting commentary from @soliman.bsky.social ... x.com/ThisIsSolima...

linkedin.comIncreasingly appears that the diesel deal was less about direct sales to the U.S. and instead reassuring other countries purchasing Russian energy they will not face U.S. sanctions …… | South Shore Co...Increasingly appears that the diesel deal was less about direct sales to the U.S. and instead reassuring other countries purchasing Russian energy they will not face U.S. sanctions … https://lnkd.in/p...

More signs that the diesel deal was about signaling to third countries that there would be no U.S. sanctions pressure … www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...

lnkd.inVia South Shore Consulting perusing the latest issue of Asia Times Global Risk-Reward Monitor. Saw Scott Foster's analysis of how China's demand--particular in its auto, electronic, robotic an...Via South Shore Consulting perusing the latest issue of Asia Times Global Risk-Reward Monitor. Saw Scott Foster's analysis of how China's demand--particular in its auto, electronic, robotic and automa...

"Opaque Interdependence ..." lnkd.in/p/gNPWkBba

Foreign Policy Research Institute@fpri.bsky.social

Is "Made in Vietnam" actually just "Made in China" with a swapped passport? Foxconn assembles electronics worth billions of dollars for export to the US and Europe. On paper, the goods are Vietnamese, but most of their components still come from China, South Korea, and Taiwan.

linkedin.comMerz faces a leadership challenge without a challenger - Asia Times | South Shore ConsultingFour weeks ago, James Davis wrote in Asia Times that no matter the intent of the Lindsay Graham sanctions legislation, Trump had made it clear that "he retains sole authority to interpret its provisio...

#POTUS actions on Russia sanctions would not have been a surprise to anyone who read James Davis' column four weeks ago: www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...

Ron Filipkowski@ronfilipkowski.bsky.social

Russia is now exempt from the Lindsey O. Graham Russia Sanctions Act. The US government is clearly allied with Putin against Ukraine. Vote Republican enablers out.

Nikolas Gvosdev reposted

Replying to @fpri.bsky.social

In their latest commentary for the #OrbisJournal, Junyang Hu and Jiayu Lai show how US de-risking policy is relying on an illusion. Read more: buff.ly/qyOl6by

Showing the realities of the #roundabout approach in the context of #fracturedglobalization … and also that some of the vaunted derisking cited in recent years is not development of genuine alternatives to China but a rebranding …

Foreign Policy Research Institute@fpri.bsky.social

asiatimes.comTrump's Ukraine policy swings back toward Moscow - Asia TimesSubscribe now with a one-month trial for only $1, then enjoy the first year at an exclusive rate of just $99. China’s industrial rise fuels Japan’s

James Davis in @asiatimesonline of the proposed peace deal and likely reactions in both Moscow and Kyiv: asiatimes.com/2026/10/trum...

linkedin.comTrump's Ukraine policy swings back toward Moscow - Asia Times | South Shore ConsultingJames Davis breaks down the proposed peace plan for Russia and Ukraine for Asia Times: --postwar reconstruction of Ukraine under a World Bank/Black Rock investment mechanism --security guarantees fo...

Summary of his points: www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...

Nikolas Gvosdev reposted

buff.lyIraq After the US Military Departure: Implications for Iraq and the RegionThe United States withdrew its troops from Iraq on September 30, ending Operation Inherent Resolve and the second major phase of US military deployment to Iraq since 2003. The departure comes as the…

If you missed our virtual discussion on the impact of the US withdrawal from Iraq, watch the full event on our YouTube channel!

x.comJoel Linnainmäki (@Linnainmaki) on XAt the @WarsawForum, I asked Democratic Congressman Jim Himes what would change and what would remain the same in US-Europe relations with a new Democratic Administration? Himes provided a pretty clear and realistic overview. #WSF2026

Flashbacks to pretty much every #LoisachGroup meeting between 2017 and 2020 … x.com/Linnainmaki/...

x.comJack Prandelli (@jackprandelli) on X🇺🇸 Alaska LNG has one big selling point for Asia: distance. From Nikiski to 🇯🇵 Tokyo is 3,000 nautical miles, about a week at sea. From the US Gulf Coast through Panama it’s 9,000+ nm and around 20...

Another commercial rationale to buttress a Pacific #maritime strategy … x.com/jackprandell...

x.comKen Moriyasu (@kenmoriyasu) on XThe undersecretary of defense for policy should shift responsibility for the five Central Asian republics to the assistant secretary for Indo-Pacific security affairs—and establish a dedicated office ...

Would represent a major shift in bureaucratic and geographic perspectives and signal that Central Asia is not a stepchild of EUCOM as ex-USSR or awkwardly linked to CENTCOM because of Islamic heritage but is northwestern part of IndoPacific basin. x.com/kenmoriyasu/...

linkedin.comA great real time example of the organizational process perspective at work … the President feels one way, but the U.S. national security bureaucracy operates on the basis of existing orders and… | Ni...A great real time example of the organizational process perspective at work … the President feels one way, but the U.S. national security bureaucracy operates on the basis of existing orders and direc...

More reporting on policy confusion in Washington on matters related to Russia and Ukraine, via @asiatimesonline ... asiatimes.com/2026/10/trum...

Nikolas Gvosdev@fpriorbis.bsky.social

Diesel, Russia and the organizational process perspective … www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

x.comAnas Alhajji (@anasalhajji) on X🔲These conflicts and proxy wars that we see today are fundamentally about "energy and AI dominance." ⭕️The nature of the conflict is shifting from the destruction of energy infrastructure and the disruption of logistics toward the targeting of data centers and the interruption of data and communi…

x.com/anasalhajji/...

By framing diesel prices as a national security crisis and promulgating an agreement that on its face doesn’t release a lot of diesel to market the path is cleared for POTUS to suspend Graham sanctions …

Anton Gerashchenko@antongerashchenko.bsky.social

Putin's envoy Dmitriev said that the agreement to supply Russian diesel to the U.S. "opens the door to new joint projects." Moscow is already discussing other areas of economic cooperation with Washington, he said.

lnkd.inWith reports that there is no mechanism to implement the President's temporary lifting of sanctions on Russian diesel--and in fact may be against U.S. code, some in the Kremlin may feel they'v...With reports that there is no mechanism to implement the President's temporary lifting of sanctions on Russian diesel--and in fact may be against U.S. code, some in the Kremlin may feel they've seen t...

If reports about Starshield in Ukraine being slowed down are accurate, suggests Trump team is beginning to connect dots between POTUS preferences and day-to-day operations …

Nikolas Gvosdev@fpriorbis.bsky.social

lnkd.in/p/gZpvFNi4

www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

linkedin.com#middlecorridor #middlecorridor | Nikolas GvosdevOne of the things that has got me thinking is the importance of a country or bloc of countries to absolutely control a key interconnector. The strength and weakness of the #middlecorridor is that it t...

linkedin.comThe Geography of Resilient Investment | Nikolas GvosdevEchoes trends from Newport Global Summit that investors for new projects looking for places with the right mix of climate, water and energy access that can both support industries but also a good qual...

Thoughts on Parag Khanna’s water-energy-climate trifecta for real estate … www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

bloomberg.comEl Niño Warmth Offers Asia Relief From Energy Strain Over WinterA severe El Niño is poised to drive a warmer-than-usual winter across Asia, potentially curbing energy demand and offering some relief from the strains caused by the US-Iran war.

Two cheers for climate change! www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Nikolas Gvosdev reposted