Aaron Fritschner

The first large batch of public House polls from a major nonpartisan pollster of the cycle, by PollVault (Sean Trende) / Emerson: #AZ02 🔵Nez: 50% 🔴Crane: 48% #FL14 🔵Castor: 48% 🔴Beltran: 43% #IA02 🔵James: 50% 🔴Mitchell: 47% #MI07 🔵Lawrence: 53% 🔴Barrett: 45% (more in next post)

More from PollVault/Emerson: #MO02 🔵Wellman: 50% 🔴Wagner: 46% #MT01 🔵Forstag: 50% 🔴Flint: 46% #NC11 🔵Ager: 56% 🔴Balkcom: 43% #PA08 🔵Cognetti: 52% 🔴Bresnahan: 48% #TX35 🔵Garcia: 51% 🔴De La Cruz: 49%

Laughed pretty hard at this quote

The Lindsey Graham Act has two components: sanctions and tariffs. This summer we identified major problems with the bill in both areas. But while Trump just did exactly what we predicted on sanctions, he’s holding back - for now - on tariffs. So what is he up to? Here are a few thoughts on that—

4) The tariff powers they're using are getting challenged in court. Some have limitations of sector, congressional approval, tariff rate, or time, or they require investigations. They lose cases, or tariffs expire, or authorities don't suit their changing needs. Then they switch to Section 113s.

The Lindsey Graham Act has two components: sanctions and tariffs. This summer we identified major problems with the bill in both areas. But while Trump just did exactly what we predicted on sanctions, he’s holding back - for now - on tariffs. So what is he up to? Here are a few thoughts on that—

So I propose 4 possible scenarios for Section 113 tariffs: 1) Trump leaves this waiver in place and never uses Section 113. 2) He scrupulously adheres to the intent and letter of the law, carefully targeting Russian oil/gas importers and sanctions evaders. These are things he could physically do

The Lindsey Graham Act has two components: sanctions and tariffs. This summer we identified major problems with the bill in both areas. But while Trump just did exactly what we predicted on sanctions, he’s holding back - for now - on tariffs. So what is he up to? Here are a few thoughts on that—

When I wrote about this law in July, Trump was on a tear with new tariffs. 301s, Brazil, and most famously Canada. bsky.app/profile/frit... But the big news over the past month has been Trump's approval numbers cratering and Republicans panicking about polls, largely driven by rising prices.

The Lindsey Graham Act has two components: sanctions and tariffs. This summer we identified major problems with the bill in both areas. But while Trump just did exactly what we predicted on sanctions, he’s holding back - for now - on tariffs. So what is he up to? Here are a few thoughts on that—

Remember when we warned you that the bill that was supposed to help Ukraine by imposing "massive" "biting" "mandatory" sanctions on Russia and forcing Trump to use tariffs to shut down their fossil fuel exports was badly flawed and would achieve none of those objectives? Yeah.

The point of my post was the supporters of the bill were only engaging with the symbolism of the bill and not its substance. This post sounds to me like more of the same tbh. Fwiw I argued with references to the text that both substance and symbolism of the bill will ultimately be bad for Ukraine

To be clear we did NOT fail to act. We passed a 1000% better bill that supported Ukraine with weapons and money, not symbolism fake sanctions and likely tariffs on Ukraine’s allies. The Senate threw that bill in the trash and passed this, which I fear will make things worse bsky.app/profile/salo...

The point of my post was the supporters of the bill were only engaging with the symbolism of the bill and not its substance. This post sounds to me like more of the same tbh. Fwiw I argued with references to the text that both substance and symbolism of the bill will ultimately be bad for Ukraine

My thread on here about why the substance of the bill will be harmful to America and Ukraine here: bsky.app/profile/frit...

The point of my post was the supporters of the bill were only engaging with the symbolism of the bill and not its substance. This post sounds to me like more of the same tbh. Fwiw I argued with references to the text that both substance and symbolism of the bill will ultimately be bad for Ukraine

Speaker Johnson pulls the plug on the Lindsey Graham Sanctioning Russia Act. Per Punchbowl:

There's one- Rep. Everton Blair Jr. of Georgia, just sworn in