Gregory Brew

Gregory Brew

@gbrew24.bsky.social

Analyst EurasiaGroup. Iran, energy. Wrote some books.

5K followers718 following189 posts

Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social

I'm going to do more to post here, y'all, and not just the other place. I am constrained somewhat by limited mental ability--in my advanced age, it's really only feasible for me to be glued to one platform at a time. But I shall do my best.

Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social

FWIW the image of Pezeshkian narrowly escaping death and heroically leading the rest of the council out of danger is certainly helpful at a time when the president is fending off significant criticism.

Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social

"Witkoff isn’t consistently engaged. He will pop in for a visit to Vladimir Putin, say a bunch of stuff, not tell anyone what really happened and then just fuck off to his life again." However you feel about the sourcing, these are some wild quotes. www.politico.com/news/2025/08...

politico.com‘His inexperience shines through’: Steve Witkoff struggles to manage Russia as Trump peace envoyWitkoff’s solo approach has led to repeated miscues with Russia, leaving Trump’s pledge to quickly end the war between Russia and Ukraine adrift.
Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social

Per Reuters, E3 will pull the SnapBack trigger tomorrow--but they're holding out hope for diplomatic progress during the 30-day implementation period. www.reuters.com/world/europe...

reuters.comEuropeans likely to initiate UN sanctions process on Iran on Thursday, sources sayBritain, France and Germany are likely to begin the process of reimposing U.N. sanctions on Iran on Thursday, but hope Tehran will provide commitments over its nuclear programme within 30 days that will convince them to defer concrete action, four diplomats said.

Gregory Brew reposted

Chirag Lala
@cthelala.bsky.social

An idea that needs a lot more validation relative to its popularity is China "replacing" real estate investment with higher ROI investment. I buy that they tried. We all see the latter's progress in many sectors. I don't buy that "replacement" worked or is even conceptually appropriate framing.

Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social

A sign of how sharply the discourse on Gaza has shifted: Idea that Hamas has been stealing aid, a major piece of the Israeli case behind controlling aid flows and cutting out the UN and int'l agencies, has now been outed as a baseless fabrication.

Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social

"Israel would have been overwhelmed" is burying the lede. Israel was conducting a limited war. If air defenses got close to collapse, Israel would have escalated to force Tehran into standing down. Critical infra and/or more extensive targeting of leadership come to mind.

Gregory Brew reposted

Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social

The experience with Iran and Russia makes it abundantly clear: while oil sanctions are good for restructuring oil flows around geopolitical relationships, they fall short on changing state behavior. With implications for US-China. My latest for @foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...

foreignpolicy.comWhy Oil Sanctions No Longer WorkOil sanctions have failed to deliver results with Iran and Russia. It would be a mistake to try them with China.
Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social

The experience with Iran and Russia makes it abundantly clear: while oil sanctions are good for restructuring oil flows around geopolitical relationships, they fall short on changing state behavior. With implications for US-China. My latest for @foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/23/o...

foreignpolicy.comWhy Oil Sanctions No Longer WorkOil sanctions have failed to deliver results with Iran and Russia. It would be a mistake to try them with China.
Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social

The only way the military option made sense was as a comprehensive strike-- you have to destroy *everything* and quickly, to reduce proliferation risk. Moreover, the military option is not a military solution. The US has bought time. But they still need to negotiate.

Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social

For Vance to immediately confirm in public that the HEU stockpile was not destroyed, despite the US dropping 13 MOPs, suggests the rationale for using force wasn't rock solid. Also underscores how risky this was. Iran learned that even massive ordinance is likely not enough.

Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social

Trump was trying to get a meeting with the Iranians through Turkey. He even contemplated going himself. But comms with Khamenei were too slow to facilitate it. I also imagine the SL was too suspicious of such an offer to consider it.

Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social

Israeli officials tell J-Post that there are no signs of regime collapse in Iran. Israel's top general acknowledges that the war will be long and the most complicated in Israel's history. Missiles continue to strike Tel Aviv and Haifa.

Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social

These docs may end up being insubstantial, but Iran is likely to use them to draw attention away from its own nuclear obfuscations, in the context of a likely IAEA censure resolution, while also trying to drive a larger wedge between Arab states and Israel. english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-...

english.alarabiya.netSensitive Israeli documents obtained by Iran should be unveiled soon, minister saysSensitive Israeli documents obtained by Tehran should be unveiled soon, Minister of Intelligence Esmail Khatib told state TV on Sunday, describing them as
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Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social

Also relevant: comments, most notably from Qalibaf, that US has presented nothing on sanctions relief. Need to bear this in mind: for Iran, obtaining relief is the primary reason for these negots. Avoiding escalation is naturally a strong incentive, but not the main driver.

Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social

I don't find the theory that Iran is just stringing talks along, as an end in itself, to be very persuasive. True, anything that allows them to avoid an attack, as well as snapback, is worthwhile. But Pezeshkian et al have silenced the hawks on the basis of promising a deal.

Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social

These docs may end up being insubstantial, but Iran is likely to use them to draw attention away from its own nuclear obfuscations, in the context of a likely IAEA censure resolution, while also trying to drive a larger wedge between Arab states and Israel. english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-...

english.alarabiya.netSensitive Israeli documents obtained by Iran should be unveiled soon, minister saysSensitive Israeli documents obtained by Tehran should be unveiled soon, Minister of Intelligence Esmail Khatib told state TV on Sunday, describing them as
Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social

Iran is also reportedly preparing a counter to the US consortium idea that includes declaring the Middle East a nuclear-free zone. Further negot maneuvers: Iran's position will be that zero enrichment must be reciprocated by de-nuclearization of Israel.

Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social

TBC, this probably won't go anywhere, but it speaks to where we are in the negotiations. US put forward some ideas, Iran will do the same. Eventually, ground for compromise will emerge. Or not, and talks break down, and escalatory risk grows.

Gregory Brew reposted

Eurasia Group
@eurasiagroup.net

Israel is unlikely to attack Iran independently because of its reliance on US assistance. Our experts Firas Maksad and @gbrew24.bsky.social say that recent policy moves and personnel changes suggest the US preference for diplomacy over force has strengthened.

bloomberg.comSputtering Iran-US Talks Revive Specter of Israeli Solo StrikeA US media outlet reports that Israel may be poised to strike Iran’s nuclear sites and oil markets wince. In Washington, a Republican administration wonders if Tehran is more determined or deterred.
Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social

Need to mention this every time the topic comes up: Israel cannot meaningfully damage Iran's nuclear program alone. It cannot mount a wholly effective air defense without US assistance. Netanyahu knows this.

Gregory Brew@gbrew24.bsky.social

CNN report is heavily conditioned but the message (delivered by US sources) is pretty clear. Israel is poised to strike Iran. Whether it does or not is framed around the outcome of US-Iran talks. www.cnn.com/2025/05/20/p...

cnn.comNew intelligence suggests Israel is preparing possible strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, US officials say | CNN PoliticsThe US has obtained new intelligence suggesting that Israel is making preparations to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, even as the Trump administration has been pursuing a diplomatic deal with Tehra...
Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social

“I think it’s more likely they strike to try and get the deal to fall apart if they think Trump is going to settle for a ‘bad deal'...The Israelis have not been shy about signaling that to us...both publicly and privately.” Suggests an enormous appetite for risk on Israel's part

Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social

Second theme of the piece: Trump's shifting position. He indicated he was prepared to bomb if talks did not produce progress within weeks. That has apparently subsided. His team has adopted zero enrichment but there are currently no proposals on the table from either side.

Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social

True, there's also a message to Israel here--and the odds of Netanyahu clearing an attack on Iran without US cooperation and coordination appear slim. Still, this serves to support Trump's credible military threat, which has receded somewhat in recent weeks.

Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social

FWIW a lot of analysis presumes a deal or a war are the only possible outcomes from the current US-Iran talks. But if history is any guide, we're much more likely to see something in the middle; an accord that allows both sides to avoid war but delivers little resolution.

Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social

Even JCPOA left many relevant issues unanswered, and produced a status quo which neither side found wholly satisfactory (recall the amount of criticism re: Rouhani's promises). The fact that it has few high-profile public defenders in the US is revealing.

Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social

Rubio (who is by all appearances closer to this file than he was a few months ago) is careful in his language re: Iran. He states (accurately) that enrichment could potentially be used to produce material for a weapon. But he doesn't commit the US to zero enrichment. www.cbsnews.com/news/marco-r...

cbsnews.comTranscript: Secretary of State Marco Rubio on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," May 18, 2025The following is the transcript of an interview with Secretary of State Marco Rubio that will air on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" on May 18, 2025.
Gregory Brew
@gbrew24.bsky.social

Via BNEF: shale firms have cut spending by 3.5% this year.

Gregory Brew@gbrew24.bsky.social

"Companies have made strides in how efficiently they drill and frack wells...But much of the improvement has now played out, and there is only so much firms can do to wring more crude from the aging shale fields." www.wsj.com/business/ene...

wsj.comU.S. Drillers Say Peak Shale Has ArrivedLower oil prices are expected to precipitate a decrease in crude output that won’t easily be reversed.