Gerald C Brown

Gerald C Brown

@geraldcbrown.bsky.social

China, PLA, Taiwan, defense, & nukes | IAF @CFR.org | Opinions mine

586 followers218 following501 posts

Gerald C Brown reposted

Behold: The US Defense Intelligence Agency has released a report on challenges to security in space, including an NEI image of China’s spaceplane from Maxar, taken in 2024.

Folks, if youre reading something on what China's military is planning to do, and it's not citing back to Chinese sources or at the very least citing secondary sources that were directly analyzing Chinese sources... Then it's called fiction

Who would have guessed that American strategy in 2026 is actually just three Marco Rubio's in a trench coat

Gerald C Brown@geraldcbrown.bsky.social

Again, I'm very sick of disjointed and opposing actions thrown together in some sort of facade at strategy. Taking Russian oil to offset losses from Hormuz is not strategy (not good strategy I guess), we're working against ourselves. bsky.app/profile/gera...

Gerald C Brown reposted

please mr. zelensky my midterm numbers, please stop hurting diesel prices 👉👈

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

“Zelenskyy could’ve stopped this war many times, and he chose not to … he better damn well stop” — Trump is no longer trying to conceal that he’s fully on Putin’s side

I encourage American's everywhere to support Ukraine as they engage in a long-time American tradition--crippling the Russian state. Oil refineries go boom and tankers explore the ocean floor until they pull out of Ukraine. The admins push to undermine this is antithetical to democratic interests.

James@gravitysra1nbow.bsky.social

We’re already helping to fund the Russian war effort and we’ve basically ended all other aid to Ukraine. Why the fuck should the Ukrainians care about our threats anymore.

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"Strategy" is organizing numerous lower/tactical actions towards a broader political objective. It requires insights into the details and the broader impacts. We're just reactively trying to put out fires that instigate worse fires elsewhere.

I encourage American's everywhere to support Ukraine as they engage in a long-time American tradition--crippling the Russian state. Oil refineries go boom and tankers explore the ocean floor until they pull out of Ukraine. The admins push to undermine this is antithetical to democratic interests.

James@gravitysra1nbow.bsky.social

We’re already helping to fund the Russian war effort and we’ve basically ended all other aid to Ukraine. Why the fuck should the Ukrainians care about our threats anymore.

Again, I'm very sick of disjointed and opposing actions thrown together in some sort of facade at strategy. Taking Russian oil to offset losses from Hormuz is not strategy (not good strategy I guess), we're working against ourselves. bsky.app/profile/gera...

Gerald C Brown@geraldcbrown.bsky.social

I love how you can just toss the word "strategic" on anything and suddenly its well calibrated 4d chess instead of chimps throwing shit at the wall and screaming

The existence of a none CCP government on Taiwan is "defying Beijing", the existence of a lot of things is "defying Beijing", like the liberal democracy, minority rights, and gay marriage. We don't need to scream it every five minutes.

If true and acted upon, reciprocal site visits would be a huge step forward in providing a mutually beneficial arrangement that limits risk between the US and China by improving transparency and predictability.

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In the past, the Chinese side has viewed arms control consultations as something that the US wanted and that it could use to gain concessions on its own interests regarding Taiwan, instead of seeing the mutually beneficial interest in reducing the potential for catastrophic risk.

China's nuclear force is deeply linked with its objectives vis-a-vis Taiwan, one of many military elements geared towards that political goal. But arms control as a weapon won't work; I hope both sides can see the benefit of coming to the table and that this effort bears fruit

Gerald C Brown reposted

Putin apologists want you to buy that: -An alleged off-the-books 1991 verbal promise outweighs a signed 1994 treaty -Democratic countries formerly occupied by Russia asked to join an anti-Russia alliance for no reason -Ukrainians don't want freedom, an American tricked them into it with cookies

Look I got the color wrong, but I was way too close here

Gerald C Brown@geraldcbrown.bsky.social

Be sure to bring out your little orange book and recite key insights from Donale Trump thought when passing the semblance of the supreme leader.

Knowing exactly the amount of time I spend examining Chinese sources, how deeply I integrate them into my work, and the sheer volume of Chinese texts I use compared to most, this remark has me cracking up. But, let's talk about some of the fun Chinese texts I've been finding interesting recently!

Totally Tanked@totallytanked.bsky.social

Might want to try something written by a Chinese person?

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Anyways, every day I'm reading through Chinese authors in books and journals--that is the entire basis of my research! I'd be really shit at my job if I built my understanding of the Chinese military from just English. And all of these are critically underexamined, like most sources in this space!

But yes, at the end of the day, when my work is done, I like to curl up with a nice history book in English and a glass of whiskey. Sue me. My recommendation? Be a little nicer to everyone else and don't make wild ass assumptions when you have no idea what you're talking about :)

Knowing exactly the amount of time I spend examining Chinese sources, how deeply I integrate them into my work, and the sheer volume of Chinese texts I use compared to most, this remark has me cracking up. But, let's talk about some of the fun Chinese texts I've been finding interesting recently!

Totally Tanked@totallytanked.bsky.social

Might want to try something written by a Chinese person?

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Joint Operations has been all the buzz in China, and the NDU text 联合作战研究 (Research on Joint Operations) is an insightful view on how the PLA was thinking about it leading into the formation of the new joint theater command structure!

But if I'm being honest, my favorite has been 与共和国一起成长: 我在战略导弹部队的难忘记忆 (Growing up with the republic: My unforgettable memories in the strategic missile forces). This is just an insanely cool collection of first-hand accounts of the events that shaped the Second Artillery's history. So interesting

Knowing exactly the amount of time I spend examining Chinese sources, how deeply I integrate them into my work, and the sheer volume of Chinese texts I use compared to most, this remark has me cracking up. But, let's talk about some of the fun Chinese texts I've been finding interesting recently!

Totally Tanked@totallytanked.bsky.social

Might want to try something written by a Chinese person?

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Were you fascinated by Chen Chongbei and Shou Xiaosong's landmark 1989 text on deterrence, 威慑战略 (Deterrence Strategy)? Well you'll love to know that they updated in 2020! Notably, Shou Xiaosong also was the lead editor of the AMS 2013 战略学 (Science of Military Strategy) that researchers gravitate to.

This is an underutilized and incredibly valuable resource, the 2024 edition of 中国台湾问题 (China's Taiwan Question), coming from China's Taiwan Affairs Office and providing an authoritative view on how Chinese officials view Taiwan and their approach to it.

Knowing exactly the amount of time I spend examining Chinese sources, how deeply I integrate them into my work, and the sheer volume of Chinese texts I use compared to most, this remark has me cracking up. But, let's talk about some of the fun Chinese texts I've been finding interesting recently!

Totally Tanked@totallytanked.bsky.social

Might want to try something written by a Chinese person?

First is 我国战略威慑能力建设研究 (Research on the Construction of Our Country's Strategic Deterrence Capability), an examination of strategic deterrence across the spectrum, looking at the nuclear, conventional, space, economic, mobilization, and cognitive deterrence methods to achieve strategic objectives.

Folks, Science of Military Strategy (战略学) is a great source when evaluating the PLA, incredibly useful. But, it is not the only source, it is not even the best source. When evaluating PLA thinking, you really need to look beyond only using that singular source... There's a lot out there.

Ok I am sort of proud of this one on the CASI topic

Gerald C Brown@geraldcbrown.bsky.social

I'm glad to see the extent of outrage caused by Air University's short-sighted decision to shut down CASI. The analyst's at CASI aren't just close friends of mine, they're a series of top notch China hands doing a massive service to the USG that is rarely replicated.

Anyways, another feather in the "pivot to Asia, but West-Asia" hat. At least the content is fire leading into the war we're so stupidly walking into unprepared for open.spotify.com/track/7HjR4I...

open.spotify.comINDO(PAY)COMAV Boyz · INDO(PAY)COM · Song · 2026
Gerald C Brown@geraldcbrown.bsky.social

I'm glad to see the extent of outrage caused by Air University's short-sighted decision to shut down CASI. The analyst's at CASI aren't just close friends of mine, they're a series of top notch China hands doing a massive service to the USG that is rarely replicated.

I'm glad to see the extent of outrage caused by Air University's short-sighted decision to shut down CASI. The analyst's at CASI aren't just close friends of mine, they're a series of top notch China hands doing a massive service to the USG that is rarely replicated.

Will Yale@wayale.bsky.social

It is extremely unfortunate and regrettable that the Department of the Air Force has decided to shutter the China Aerospace Studies Institute (CASI). CASI, along with its sister institutions the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI), China Landpower Studies Center (CLSC), and…

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The products published by CASI and the courses they taught made a massive impact and improved USG and public decision-making significantly. And frankly with a shoestring budget, CASI punches way above their weight.

This is a self-own and shortsighted decision. The state of understanding China and the PLA within the United States is incredibly poor, and CASI was one of the only ones making a measurable impact in fixing that flaw. We're not taking the threat seriously and it will haunt us.

I'm glad to see the extent of outrage caused by Air University's short-sighted decision to shut down CASI. The analyst's at CASI aren't just close friends of mine, they're a series of top notch China hands doing a massive service to the USG that is rarely replicated.

Will Yale@wayale.bsky.social

It is extremely unfortunate and regrettable that the Department of the Air Force has decided to shutter the China Aerospace Studies Institute (CASI). CASI, along with its sister institutions the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI), China Landpower Studies Center (CLSC), and…

There are only a handful of orgs who do serious open source research on the PLA. This is not only a huge help to the IC, it serves a niche that the IC is unable to fill--namely mass education across the joint force, USG, and public on the threat we face and how they think and operate.