Janis Kluge

Janis Kluge

@jakluge.de

Russia & Economics All views private German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP Berlin) Picture: Tamek Kowalski

9.2K followers528 following827 posts

Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

I don't think the US is relaxing sanctions on Russia. Here is why: 1.) The timing of the Graham Act waiver is mostly a coincidence. Trump would have had to impose new sanctions and tariffs latest on 18 October. He had to use the waiver now - and it was clear that he would use it.

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Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

There may be a credibility problem for the US' Russia sanctions because of Trump's generally Russia-friendly stance, and it matters for sanctions effectiveness. The exceptions and the waiver could lead to the assumption that sanctions won't be enforced.

Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

But the current developments in US' Russia sanctions have a complicated background and are not a sudden pro-Russian turn by Trump. Paradoxically, both Putin's people (such as Dmitriev) and the harshest critics of Putin / Trump are amplifying this narrative.

Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

I don't think the US is relaxing sanctions on Russia. Here is why: 1.) The timing of the Graham Act waiver is mostly a coincidence. Trump would have had to impose new sanctions and tariffs latest on 18 October. He had to use the waiver now - and it was clear that he would use it.

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Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

2.) The General License for Russian diesel only affects a small portion of Russian energy exports and is temporary (set to expire after 6 months). The US had similar, but much more comprehensive General Licenses for Russian oil exports in spring 2026, but the last one expired in June.

Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

On paper, US sanctions on Russia are currently still tougher than they were when Trump entered office (mainly because of Rosneft/Lukoil sanctions). This doesn't mean that Trump isn't doing things that are great for Russia and enormously damaging for Ukraine.

Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

I don't think the US is relaxing sanctions on Russia. Here is why: 1.) The timing of the Graham Act waiver is mostly a coincidence. Trump would have had to impose new sanctions and tariffs latest on 18 October. He had to use the waiver now - and it was clear that he would use it.

Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

The Graham Act was never realistic (esp. huge tariffs on RU oil buyers such as China), and I don't believe Graham himself expected Trump to do what the Act says. And the White House only agreed to the law after the possibility for a comprehensive waiver was included in July.

Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

Trump thinks he made a brilliant deal with Putin about diesel exports from Russia. But Russia planned to allow some diesel exports anyway. Putin managed to sell it as a gift to Trump. This is from 3 days ago:

Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

Link to article: www.interfax.ru/business/112...

interfax.ruИсточники сообщили о возможной отмене запрета экспорта ДТ для отдельных производителейРоссийские власти рассматривают частичное снятие запрета на экспорт дизтоплива в октябре для некоторых компаний-производителей, сообщили Интерфаксу источники
Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

Russia still recruits around 1,000 men per day, according to the latest data from September. Under pressure to fulfil their quotas, Russian regions are very inventive. They try whatever works and copy what works elsewhere. The trend this year is payments to intermediaries.

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Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

Payments to recruitment intermediaries are the perfect business opportunity for organized crime. In my recent post, I report on a case in which a state prosecutor calls for abolishing these payouts because crime in his district is increasing exponentially as a result.

Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

Russia's military recruitment machine still produces enough men, but it is messy, decentralized and difficult to control. If Putin decides to launch another round of mobilization, it may be because "privatized coercion" is getting out of hand. janiskluge.substack.com/p/the-perils...

janiskluge.substack.comThe perils of privatized coercionRussian regions and municipalities are increasingly turning to private recruitment agents to fulfil their quotas. This is leading to more aggressive and often criminal recruitment methods.
Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

Russia still recruits around 1,000 men per day, according to the latest data from September. Under pressure to fulfil their quotas, Russian regions are very inventive. They try whatever works and copy what works elsewhere. The trend this year is payments to intermediaries.

Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

Paying recruitment agents works. But it also shows the limits of Russia's recruitment system. These payouts create strong incentives to use pressure, fraud and even violence against vulnerable men. Increasingly, recruitment is becoming coercive, but in an uncontrolled way.

Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

📢 Personal news: Today, I started my new role as Head of the Eastern Europe and Eurasia Division at @swp-berlin.org. I’m looking forward to continuing all the conversations and collaborations we’ve had over the past years. I’m sure the next few years will not be boring!

Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

Putin just expropriated the next foreign investor: Germany's retailer Metro decided to stay in Russia after 2022, but has now lost control over its Russian assets anyway. After 26 years of presence in the Russian market, around $3 billion in annual revenues, this story has ended.

Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

The gasoline supply in St Petersburg is back to normal, but now there are new problems in Kaluga and Nizhny Novgorod. There are also signs of stress in other regions around Moscow (Tula, Ryazan, Vladimir).

Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

Funny how we were worried Trump would lift Russia sanctions, and now it was Macron.

Janis Kluge@jakluge.de

The EU completely sold out its principles today. The symbolic effect of lifting sanctions on Usmanov and Fridman is a catastrophy. There is hardly any justification for this. Who's next? Is this the beginning of EU sanctions collapsing?

Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

The EU completely sold out its principles today. The symbolic effect of lifting sanctions on Usmanov and Fridman is a catastrophy. There is hardly any justification for this. Who's next? Is this the beginning of EU sanctions collapsing?

Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

Putin has de facto expropriated the Russian subsidiaries of Nestlé and Auchan today. Their assets are now under the control of an obscure Russian business structure "LEV Management". A few months ago, "LEV Management" was for sale as an empty company shell.

Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

The situation in Nizhny Novgorod is not quite as bad as in the first fuel crisis in July, but there is still a shortage. And again - diesel is apparently not the main issue anymore.

Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

revious gasoline shortage in July with the situation in September. Queues are longer this time, according to Gdebenz.

Janis Kluge reposted

Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

Russian recruitment was close to 1,000 per day in August. Regional budgets suggest that Russia recruited ~234,000 soldiers this year, 10% less than last year, while sign-on bonuses continue to rise and coercive recruitment practices spread across the country. janiskluge.substack.com/p/russian-re...

janiskluge.substack.comRussian recruitment roundup, September 2026Russian recruitment remained close to 1,000 per day in August, according to regional budget data. To cover the cost, regions are increasingly cutting other spending, including regional coffin money.
Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

This is the situation at gas stations in Nizhny Novgorod, which is supplied by the Kstovo refinery. Kstovo was attacked on August 26. Since then, the gasoline crisis has returned to the city.

Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

The Kirishi refinery, a major supplier of gasoline to St. Petersburg, was attacked by Ukraine on August 29–30. A few days later, queues began forming at gas stations across the city, and the share of open gas stations in St. Petersburg fell.

Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

Russian recruitment was close to 1,000 per day in August. Regional budgets suggest that Russia recruited ~234,000 soldiers this year, 10% less than last year, while sign-on bonuses continue to rise and coercive recruitment practices spread across the country. janiskluge.substack.com/p/russian-re...

janiskluge.substack.comRussian recruitment roundup, September 2026Russian recruitment remained close to 1,000 per day in August, according to regional budget data. To cover the cost, regions are increasingly cutting other spending, including regional coffin money.
Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

The situation has improved in some cities, while long queues remain in others. For some reason, it is currently worsening in St. Petersburg and in Nizhny Novgorod.

Janis Kluge reposted

Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

"At the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Putin tried to dispel concerns about the state of Russia’s public finances. But the numbers tell a more troubling story for the Kremlin." - my short analysis of Russian state finances: www.swp-berlin.org/en/publicati...

swp-berlin.orgRussian military spending soars, upending the Kremlin’s budget plansAt the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Putin tried to dispel concerns about the state of Russia’s public finances. But the numbers tell...

Janis Kluge reposted

Sabine Fischer
@sabfis3.bsky.social

Want to learn more about the economic and fiscal challenges the Kremlin is facing because of its war of aggression against Ukraine? Check out my colleague @jakluge.de‘s analysis and dashboard on trends in Russia‘s state budget. Super illuminating! www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...

swp-berlin.orgRussian military spending soars, upending the Kremlin’s budget plansAt the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Putin tried to dispel concerns about the state of Russia’s public finances. But the numbers tell...
Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

Volgograd cancelled its youth festival "ThreeFour" this year. It was already fully organized and prepared, but the governor said the money was needed to pay sign-on bonuses for contract soldiers. Sign-on bonuses were increased to 3.4 million rubles. v1.ru/text/gorod/2...

Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

"At the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Putin tried to dispel concerns about the state of Russia’s public finances. But the numbers tell a more troubling story for the Kremlin." - my short analysis of Russian state finances: www.swp-berlin.org/en/publicati...

swp-berlin.orgRussian military spending soars, upending the Kremlin’s budget plansAt the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Putin tried to dispel concerns about the state of Russia’s public finances. But the numbers tell...

Janis Kluge reposted

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)
@swp-berlin.org

At the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Putin tried to dispel concerns about the state of Russia’s public finances. But the numbers tell a more troubling story for the Kremlin, adding to doubts about how long Russia can sustain the war, writes @jakluge.de. www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...

swp-berlin.orgRussian military spending soars, upending the Kremlin’s budget plansAt the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Putin tried to dispel concerns about the state of Russia’s public finances. But the numbers tell...
Janis Kluge
@jakluge.de

If you are curious about the latest details of Russian military spending, I recommend the interactive SWP Russian Budget Monitor. You can browse the different components of military spending, view how each of them has changed over time in charts & export all data: www.swp-berlin.org/en/publicati...