James Thomason

James Thomason

@jamesthomason.com

Tech Analyst | Portfolio Manager | Venture Investor | Philosophy of Technology - Not investment advice

94 followers128 following38 posts

James Thomason reposted

Two’s a trend. And, trust me I have been involved in hundreds of IPO’s over multiple decades, it’s not for altruistic reasons. They already sense a lack of institutional demand and are looking to dump bags on retail.

I'm ready to give up on LLMs and declare shenanigans on the entire AI market. You spend hundreds of hours prompt engineering to get a reliable output until the cloud vendor rugpulls you with a new model that's completely busted. You can't rely on cloud AI models at all. It's self-hosted or nothing.

Every tech cycle elevates a KPI that feels like progress—users, GMV, tokens served—and then punishes the companies building for actual profitability. The metric that drives your valuation today is probably selecting against you winning tomorrow. jamesthomason.com/narratives-p...

jamesthomason.comNarratives pick the KPI, and the KPI picks the losersHow the metrics that attract capital in emerging tech sectors systematically favor the companies least likely to dominate long-term

The bubble isn't the bug. It's the feature. What we call "bubbles" are actually society's option premium on discovery. The dot-com crash? Two-thirds of companies failed, but Amazon inherited infrastructure dead competitors paid to create. Is this rational? Nobody knows. That's the point.

See, this is a lie and distortion. Starbucks CEO makes $1.5M in salary, or 33x the average employee. He’s got a decent stock package, which is at *risk*.

Robert Reich@rbreich.bsky.social

Starbucks is closing stores and cutting 900 jobs in a restructuring move. 1,100 jobs were slashed earlier this year. Reminder that Starbucks’ CEO made 6,666x more than the company's median employee in 2024. This was the widest CEO-to-Worker pay gap in the entire S&P 500.

Xennial. Too young for Gen X cool. Too old for Millennial optimism. We got the worst of it. Analog childhood. Digital disappointment. Student loans without jobs. Startups without exits. But we remember when software shipped in boxes. That's something. Not valuable. But something.

At CES, they just declared Autonomy as the most under appreciated tech trend. But they’re wrong. Autonomy isn’t a trend, it’s THE trend, a long wave of innovation that will unfold over the next 50 years or so. jamesthomason.com/investing-in...

jamesthomason.comInvesting in the Long WavesLong waves of technological and economic progress shape modern history. The best investors ride these cycles of creative destruction, reaping exponential rewards by backing innovations early.

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