Jared Bernstein

It's a prices up, real-wages down CPI report. In fact, here's the real hourly wage for pvt-sector workers since Trump took office. It's back to where it started. Working families are getting squeezed on both sides (wg, price) of the affordability crunch. econjared.substack.com/p/is-it-gett...

Surprising finding, amiright? This is Morning Consult econ sentiment by social media usage, from GS: "on the less intuitive side, we find that sentiment is higher among social media users." They note the pattern is robust after controlling for age effects.

I think r* has probably gone up, at least over the medium term. econjared.substack.com/p/r

These two things are closely connected, right? 1) Spiking gas price (diesel highest on record; "cars run on gas; economies run on diesel") and this "don't look there; look here!" breaking news (NYT):

I woke up, wrote a table-setter for the big Warsh speech, including the table below and hopes for some clarifications from the new chair. Then updated after the speech, which had +'s and -'s. Check it out: econjared.substack.com/p/before-and...

Fed officials have been leaning toward a rate hike, and basically challenging the data to talk them off of the ledge. This AMs PCE report doesn’t say “jump” but neither does it say “come inside and let’s talk this out.”

Those of us tracking the reliability of gov't statistics have not heretofore seen anything like this. It's a remarkable and deeply worrisome encroachment: econjared.substack.com/p/the-govern...

It's good to see more construction jobs, but I suspect I speak for many: we'd like to see more homes, less data centers! (data are basically residential--down--and nonresidential--up--subcontractors)

Up-to-date info on pre-war econ baseline and post-war econ impacts. Yes, oil and gas, but not just them (that's the 30-year mortgage rate below). econjared.substack.com/p/weekly-wra...

The affordability debate is overlooking a key factor: higher wages. Union bargaining is the way to get there, @jaredb-econ.bsky.social and I argue for @theprogressivemag.bsky.social: tinyurl.com/mr2n8pas

This is such important work, and practically in real time, which is very important. Also, shows economists can apply our skills to aid the resistance!

Aside from the annoying moderator, I thought this price control debate was 1-2 std devs above the mean for this sort of thing. Jam packed with substance, evidence, logic, tradeoffs, clarity, and respect. And on an interesting, timely topic. www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrpm...

Affordability policy is often accused of aiming to lower the overall price level. Not so! The agenda is grounded on 2 criteria: a) short list of living-standard essential goods/services, wherein b) the market that produces them is flawed. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/o...

Explaining the "big, yellow gap" between how folks feel about the economy these days (bad) and overall growth (good). As usual, we don't have all the data we need to explain the gap, but I draw on a lot of what we do have. econjared.substack.com/p/is-this-ec...

Gemini just told me this: "While many people in the finance industry are increasingly interested in strength training, there are no well-known, high-profile economists famous specifically for their fitness or a muscular physique." Sounds right but I'd still like a fact check.

Healthcare affordability policies reside at the intersection of good politics (for Ds) and good policy (for all...well, except rent-seekers). Joint w @nealemahoney.bsky.social econjared.substack.com/p/healthcare...

Should they cut or should they hold? Or should they push the damn meeting back a bit to have a few more drops of precious data?! Some noodling on the Fed's Dec meeting: econjared.substack.com/p/should-the...

You know how many were saying, even as the u-rate crept up of late, "of course, X% is still historically low unemployment." I think at 4.4%, that's no longer quite right, but interested in others'--some name-checked here--takes. econjared.substack.com/p/tuesdays-m...

My mind has been blown! I grew up listening to the highly nuanced music of the Modern Jazz Quartet featuring Connie Kay on drums. I just learned that Connie Kay played on Joe Turner’s shake rattle and roll w its huge crazy backbeat! How did I not know that?! (Tho there’s some disagreement.)

The affordability crisis focuses on prices. That makes sense for reasons I articulate in this piece, but for economists, it's not just p (prices) that matter. It's y/p (real incomes). Just want to be careful not to lose sight of that part of the equation! econjared.substack.com/p/the-afford...

A calculation somebody needs to do: take u-rate, payroll change, infl rate and average month t-1 and t+1. Report forecast error re t. @guyberger.bsky.social @ernietedeschi.bsky.social @aaronsojourner.org Thank u 4 your attention to this matter.

Sorry, progressives & health care policy wonks. But we're going to have to re-remind everyone why Health Savings Accts are a tax shelter for the wealthy, not health insurance. Note distribution of premium tax credits vs. HSA contributions. www.cbpp.org/blog/five-re...

Seems strong to me! Gorsuch today, warning about this very point: “a one-way ratchet toward the gradual but continual accretion of power in the executive branch and away from the people’s elected representatives.” We fought a revolution against such kingly actions to tax w/out consent from Congress!

On Trump's tariffs, I consistently find myself in firm agreement with the often crazy WSJ ed board! Their latest on how SCOTUS conservatives would have to bend themselves into a massive pretzel to support Trump is deeply incisive, rooted in historical precedent. www.wsj.com/opinion/dona...

Tough to square the following a) it's not tariffs keeping inflation above target & b) rates must be cut. If it's not tariffs/goods pressures--which should subside when (if!) tariffs land on a rate--then it's something else that's harder to "look thru." www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...

There's considerable evidence that consumer spending is increasingly skewed toward the top, driven by the weaker job market and slower wage growth. Given the extent to which spending has fueled this expansion, that's a fragility that bears close watching. econjared.substack.com/p/whos-spend...

It looks like a bubble to us: www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/o...

Re the shutdown, this is one of those moments when it's crystal clear who's fighting for whom: econjared.substack.com/p/breaking-n...

I'm way outta my lane here, and playing with very hot fire. No intention to throw any shade, just wondering if others hear it. The hook on Taylor Swift's new single reminded of that from this older Demi Levato tune. www.youtube.com/watch?v=svcb... www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zfz...

Just so you know, if you hear a collective wail of pain, angst, and withdrawal from data nerds the world over at 8:30am ET this morning, here's why.

New from @nealemahoney.bsky.social and me: "Building an affordable economy: A three-legged stool strategy." Everybody's talking affordability, as they should be! Here's our framework & principles: siepr.stanford.edu/publications... Substack summary: econjared.substack.com/p/a-three-le...

Not what I'd spend my time on right now, policy-wise, but seems fine for SEC to give public companies a choice of reporting earnings quarterly or semi-annually, as in the UK.

I did not fully appreciate how the BLS's staff efforts to “publish reliable data” could become an act of bravery in the struggle to preserve democracy. But that’s exactly what it is. econjared.substack.com/p/a-contrast...

As a former CEA chair, keeping that job* while being a Fed gov is like having the same guy be your AA sponsor and your bartender. *This is the case even w "leave of absence," whatever that means.

Fun fact: Wally Adeyemo is just great to listen to on matters econ. Clear, concise, compelling, with years of experience to back it all up. Here he is on the latest episode of "Let's Do Lunch!" contrarian.substack.com/p/lets-do-lu...

This from @jaredb-econ.bsky.social "Labor Day message. History is clear that capitalism remains a highly effective system of generating growth and technological gains. But without an organized and aptly sized political counterforce, it will concentrate wealth and power..." 1/2

Trying to take a few minutes away from the news of the day but fate had other ideas.

All here: www.marketwatch.com/story/bls-no...

Can’t do it. There’s just no substitute. We could get some useful info for sure, but BLS and rest of government stat infrastructure irreplaceable. For one, they make such info a public good. Who wants to pay for the unemployment rate? (I mean, I would, but u know what I mean.)