Jeff E. Guy

See a Trumper, block a Trumper

These people can't do anything right. Trump's policies are hurting his bottom line, so how will he fix that? By voting for a Trump enabler in the Senate and a Democrat for statewide office.

It would be a mistake for the Democrats to win but fail to address the cost of living. While we may take issue with his assaults on democracy, his corruption, and his degradation of the rule of law, this issue drove his approval rating to new lows. If they ignore it, they will lose in 2028.

Did I have a rooting interest in the Brazilian election? Absolutely. Is that healthy? Probably not.

I get why people hate the media. The article accurately portrays what happened in Brazil, but this fscking headline. On what planet is 3% a knife-edge? The FT is subscription-based. They don't need to phish for clicks, but that doesn't stop them from doing so.

By "many people" he means "Trump," who learned Montana is derived from the Spanish word for "mountainous country" five minutes before he posted this.

Arriving at the pot luck soup cook-off like...

According to David French, a cohort of far-right supporters of Vance are fond of using the acronym WAGTFKY, which stands for "we are going to fucking kill you." Tell me again why I'm a bad person for blocking all MAGAts.

Literally everything other than politics has gotten better.

While this may seem odd, it shouldn't surprise anyone that Melania is more competent than her husband...

I purchased a refurbished Hans Olsen dining set from a guy in Poland. The fscking import tax was brutal and, believe it or not, Poland didn't pay the tariff. It's early in the process, but I may be reimbursed. Fingers crossed.

Nationalizing Starlink (or any industry) means placing it under Donald Trump's control. That will only make it worse.

Yeah, let's put these guys in charge of every American's healthcare...

Oracle’s CDS was quoted at 322bp yesterday. Its debt is rated investment grade, but the market is treating it like junk.

Myron Gaines, after concluding that the Nazis would have been total buds with him....

Napoleon was great at one thing: Directing cannon fire. That skill made him one of the most influential people to have lived.

CCC stress is the canary. The chain typically goes CCC stress > HY outflows > forced selling > IG widening > equity repricing, but it's not a steady flow. Each step can stall with a liquidity injection (TGA drawdown, Fed pivot, risk-on, etc.) Prediction is futile. All you can do is watch it.

Ray Warner added, "Now plow my road and fix the pot hole at the end of my driveway."

The New Right is losing young men

I can't confirm this quote. Can anyone point me to the source?

In 1989, the G7 nations accounted for 2/3rds of global economic output and military spending. Today it's 43%. That decline has created an opening for revisionist nations, the axis of China, North Korea, Russia and Iran. Let's hope we don't bumble fsck our way into a third world war....

Iran receives targeting information from Russia and Trump carved out a sanctions exception for that country. If Trump was a Russian agent, what would be different?

I'm getting tired of Interesting Times

Brookings via FT: "Spending on the AI services produced by all those data centres would need to account for an astounding 9.2 per cent of US GDP by 2032 for their operators to make a decent economic return."

Gift link: The Romanization of the American republic continues unabated.

I don't know why people are obsessing over Katie Zacharia's bar exam (of course she failed) and her lies (she's MAGA, isn't she?). Zacharia wasn't hired due to her credentials. She was hired because she looks like Ivanka Trump.

Dig into the polls. Americans don't hate Trump because he's enriching himself, or because he's betraying Ukraine, or because he's violating the law, or because he's murdering people in the Caribbean. They hate him because prices are high.

"Between mid-2024 and mid-2026, the study shows that the best AI models went from correctly solving about 2 percent of theoretical problems in probability, statistics, economic theory, high-energy theory, gravitation, cosmology, and quantum physics to about 35 percent of them."

Game 7. Bottom of the ninth. Maz delivered.

My vote was mailed a week ago. At this point, I should be exempt from all political messaging.

Happy Anniversary to those who celebrate.

Grzegorz Braun leads Poland's KKP. You can learn all you need to know about his politics by observing how he dresses his daughters.

They don't understand the game they're playing. Even if AI cures cancer, it can't clear tar and repair damaged tissue. Emphysema destroys air sacs, and that damage is currently irreversible. Lung cancer kills you fast. Emphysema downs you in your own lungs.

The Democrats have one thing in their favor. Their opponents are dumb fscks who are convinced they're smarter than everyone else

While covering his rape trial, NYT described Russell Brand as a comedian. I've always thought of him as the complete opposite of that.

Why doesn't @mlb.com want me to watch its playoff games?

The categorization struggle is real

It is a total betrayal of Ukraine but Trump cares about nobody but Trump. And Trump thinks this will help him avoid disaster in the midterms.

I monitor credit markets (the fun never stops around here) and I'm seeing interesting things. Rates are under pressure, and credit is weak, but liquidity isn't tightening. Is Treasury is injecting cash? You betcha. I discovered a massive TGA draw down since late August.

Broke: The AI bubble will soon burst. Woke: The SI bubble will soon burst.