Jim Royal, PhD

Jim Royal, PhD

@jimroyalphd.bsky.social

Author of The Zen of Thrift Conversions and Options Trading 101. Prospecting for special situations (#spinoffs, #thriftconversions) that create advantageous stock mispricing. MarketWise.

87 followers31 following162 posts

Jim Royal, PhD reposted

Ed Zitron
@edzitron.com

Business Insider confirms it: Amazon has warehouses of GPUs that can’t be installed, and is buying them so far in advance that a supply chain team said they “didn’t have a clear forecasted path” to installing them. www.businessinsider.com/amazon-220-b...

Ed Zitron@edzitron.com

Free newsletter: I estimate that ~50% of AI chip sales - $200bn to $300bn+ - are sitting in warehouses, with NVIDIA selling hundreds of billions of GPUs years in advance. Data centers take way longer to build than hyperscalers are leading us to believe. www.wheresyoured.at/wherere-all-the-ai-chips/

wheresyoured.athttps://www.wheresyoured.at/wherere-all-the-ai-chips/If you liked this piece, you should subscribe to my premium newsletter, and you can subscribe on the following links: $70 a year, $18 a quarter, or $7 a month. In return you get a weekly premium…
Jim Royal, PhD
@jimroyalphd.bsky.social

Will Oracle's fall be the "Lehman moment" of the AI bust? $ORCL

Jesse Felder@jessefelder.com

‘Oracle is more than just a debt-laden data center play. It’s become an AI “bellwether,” notes Jim Reid, global head of macro research at Deutsche Bank. A downgrade of its credit into junk territory “would risk pressuring IG-only investors into forced sales.”’ www.cnbc.com/2026/10/19/o...

cnbc.comCredit stress is threatening to unwind the AI bull. All eyes are on Oracle to hold the lineInvestors are pushing up the cost of insurance against an Oracle default.
Jim Royal, PhD
@jimroyalphd.bsky.social

Any guesses on when Anthropic and OpenAI announced their IPOs? (Yes, it was right at the start of June.)

Jesse Felder@jessefelder.com

‘Token usage may have surged temporarily in the second quarter, attributed by some to so-called “tokenmaxxing.“ If "tokenmaxxing" has dissipated, as many believe, overall spending on LLMs by businesses and consumers could be lower than it was three months ago.’ www.reuters.com/commentary/r...

Jim Royal, PhD reposted

Adam McKay
@ghostpanther.bsky.social

Wrote it with Rob Smigel. And yes, it was pulled from reruns.

Michael Warburton@michaelwarburton.bsky.social

This aired just the once in 1998 on the live SNL show for which McKay wrote it. It was effectively banned as it never aired again. I wonder why. MEDIA-OPOLY

Jim Royal, PhD
@jimroyalphd.bsky.social

Trillions of investment to get this pathetic hot mess. This is what is going to take our jobs?

Jesse Felder@jessefelder.com

‘The most popular AI models from ChatGPT, Claude, Copilot, Grok and Gemini provided wrong answers to financial queries 57 per cent of the time on average, according to research from technology firm Saturn.’ www.ft.com/content/c0cd...

ft.comAI chatbots give wrong answers to financial queries ‘most of the time’Report finds some chatbots ignored upcoming tax changes and hallucinated rules
Jim Royal, PhD
@jimroyalphd.bsky.social

The Three Stooges of AI -- Dario, Sam, and Elon -- are angling for the next round of public grift: legal CYA, protection from Chinese competition, and even setting up the potential for a taxpayer bailout. #AIGrift bsky.app/profile/dean...

Dean Baker@deanbaker13.bsky.social

The American Prospect is on the money on AI prospect.org/2026/09/15/a... Their warnings should be seen as a cause for indictments and shutdown, not handouts and special treatment.

prospect.orgCongressional Democrats in Hysterics About Saving the World From AI - The American ProspectWhy panic when you could just use existing laws?
Jim Royal, PhD
@jimroyalphd.bsky.social

100%.

Center for Economic and Policy Research@ceprdc.bsky.social

Could #AI CEOs warnings' about AI's risks to humanity actually be an attempt to get government protections from damage liability their companies will cause? @deanbaker13.bsky.social thinks so. Read this week's #AIBubbleMonitor. #econsky cepr.net/publications...

cepr.netThe AI Bubble MonitorIs there an AI bubble? Some indicators point to one — and when bubbles burst, there can be massive shocks in housing and job markets that last for years.
Jim Royal, PhD
@jimroyalphd.bsky.social

One wonders if the real problem isn't the enforcement of laws that substantially penalize criminal AI acts. Instead, admitted AI criminality is met with an "oopsie".

Ed Zitron@edzitron.com

Notice that he isn’t worried about (nor did he quit over) the fact that both anthropic and OpenAI mobilized - deliberately or otherwise - billions of dollars of infrastructure to hack multiple systems. It doesn’t have to be conscious or actually intelligent to be dangerous. Why isn’t that worrying?

Jim Royal, PhD reposted

Dean Baker
@deanbaker13.bsky.social

Very good piece on how the shit is about to hit the fan as the AI companies have to start paying for data centers when they come online in a big way, starting next year www.groundbrkr.com/p/the-teaser... Hopefully, even brain-dead billionaires can see this coming.

groundbrkr.comThe Teaser Period: Why the AI Boom Is Hitting a Reset WallTrillions in compute commitments come due in 2027–2028. The Reset Wall reveals how the AI boom breaks, and when.
Jim Royal, PhD
@jimroyalphd.bsky.social

OpenAI, Anthropic and other so-called frontier labs, she [the CFO] said, are “growing faster than what their balance sheets and credit profiles can support.” #OPENAI #ANTHROPIC $NVDA A loss of $12.3 billion in a single quarter with no end in sight... That'll do it... www.wsj.com/tech/ai/nvid...?

wsj.comNvidia Insists It Can Keep Printing Money to Fund the AI BoomThe chip maker says its sales ‘flywheel’ is more than robust enough to fund the financial support it gives frontier AI labs and data-center developers
Jim Royal, PhD
@jimroyalphd.bsky.social

90% of the current U.S. economy? Sure, Jan.

Jesse Felder@jessefelder.com

‘The maker of Claude is likely to tell investors its potential revenue opportunities are above $30 trillion, topping SpaceX’s $28.5 trillion estimate. WeWork cited a $3 trillion market opportunity in its ultimately abandoned IPO.‘ www.wsj.com/tech/ai/anth...

wsj.comExclusive | Anthropic Expected to Tell Investors It Sees Over $30 Trillion in Potential RevenueThe AI startup is likely to top SpaceX’s eye-popping potential revenue estimate.

Jim Royal, PhD reposted

Andrew Lawrence
@ndrew.bsky.social

“it costs less money than what we’re doing now” is the only answer we need to push normies towards universal healthcare

Jen Taub@jentaub.bsky.social

“A single-payer universal health care system could cover every American, save more than 100,000 lives a year, and still cost $1 trillion less than the system it would replace, according to a new preprint study led by researchers at the Yale School of Public Health.” ysph.yale.edu/news-article...

ysph.yale.eduUniversal Health Coverage Could Save $1 Trillion and 114,000 Lives Every Year, Yale Study ProjectsA single-payer universal health care system could cover every American, save more than 100,000 lives a year, and still cost $1 trillion less than the system it
Jim Royal, PhD
@jimroyalphd.bsky.social

Oh, just another speed bump on Oracle's path... $ORCL

Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social

Wisconsin’s decision “highlights state regulators’ increasing concerns that the new wave of large-scale AI infrastructure projects could become stranded assets if they cannot show strong financial backing.” 👀 @financialtimes.com $ORCL www.ft.com/content/b370...

Jim Royal, PhD
@jimroyalphd.bsky.social

Then multiply this effect across domains -- legal, healthcare, other technical fields with lives at stake, etc etc -- and you have a recipe for catastrophe.

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Jim Royal, PhD
@jimroyalphd.bsky.social

We got real problems (ahem, global warming) that need trillions in investment now, today. Instead, Silicon Valley is investing big in losers: -- #LLMs -- #Crypto -- #AGI And please no "But AI will help us solve global warming." 🙄

Jim Royal, PhD
@jimroyalphd.bsky.social

Kinda blows a hole in the narrative, doesn't it?

Ed Zitron@edzitron.com

Exclusive: I have seen OpenAI's audited financials for 2024 and 2025. In 2025, OpenAI had $13.07 billion in revenue and $34 billion in costs. $867 million of its revenue came from SoftBank, and $303 million came from Microsoft. www.wheresyoured.at/exclusive-op...

wheresyoured.atExclusive: OpenAI Losses Increased Nearly 8X in 2025, With Spending Hitting $34 BillionSoundtrack: In Flames - Colony To further support my independent journalism, please subscribe to my premium newsletter. It’s $7 a month or $70 a year. If you’re subscribed to the free newsletter and ...
Jim Royal, PhD
@jimroyalphd.bsky.social

SpaceX’s newly released prospectus highlights the company’s efforts to promote the stock while also revealing concerns about the realism of some of its long-term claims. $SPCX marketwise.com/investing/sp...

marketwise.comThe 7 Most Outlandish Things from SpaceX's IPO Prospectus - MarketWiseSpaceX's new IPO prospectus shows how it's working hard to promote the stock even as it shows how unrealistic many claims are. Investors should be wary of these things.
Jim Royal, PhD
@jimroyalphd.bsky.social

Crypto-collateralized mortgages cost way more than conventional mortgages. The #crypto industry wants you to believe they're the wave of the future. Like the rest of crypto, they're just products for people who can't think clearly.

Jim Royal, PhD@jimroyalphd.bsky.social

This new #crypto product will help almost no one, because few people own enough crypto to make a home down payment anyway. It’s yet another example of crypto “solutions” that are in search of problems. Thank you, @profhilaryallen.bsky.social marketwise.com/investing/cr...

marketwise.comWhy Bitcoin Investors Should Avoid Crypto-Backed Mortgages - MarketWiseCrypto-backed mortgages can cost up to 30% more per month than traditional loans. Read our full breakdown to see how the extra yearly costs compare to potential tax savings.
Jim Royal, PhD
@jimroyalphd.bsky.social

"These pre-IPO derivatives represent the latest retail frontier of that shift: the same permissionless architecture that once powered memecoin speculation is being used to ride the likes of Anthropic in real time." #crypto finance.yahoo.com/news/ais-hot...

finance.yahoo.comAI’s Hottest Private Firms Have Booming Crypto Shadow Market(Bloomberg) -- The race to sell retail investors a piece of the AI boom has gone mainstream — closed-end funds, interval funds, special-purpose vehicles. Now, crypto platforms are offering trades tied...

Jim Royal, PhD reposted

Jim Royal, PhD
@jimroyalphd.bsky.social

Millions of Americans may be forced to own Elon Musk’s SpaceX stock soon after it goes public, due to recent changes in how the Nasdaq includes stocks in its Nasdaq 100 index. Sounds outrageous, doesn’t it? It gets even worse when you dig into the details, though. #SPACEX

marketwise.comSpaceX IPO Could Force Investors Into an Overvalued Stock - MarketWiseNasdaq rule changes may push millions of investors into SpaceX after its IPO. Here’s why critics say the stock could be massively overvalued.
Jim Royal, PhD
@jimroyalphd.bsky.social

"A survey...of 3750 executives and employees finds that, even though 81% of executives think their AI tools have 'significantly improved productivity,' their workers are actually wasting eight hours per week cleaning up AI-slop...51 work days a year." www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/04/russ...

nakedcapitalism.comRussell’s Teapot: Dispatches From the Final Stage of the AI Bubble | naked capitalismThe AI future sold to markets rests on claims that cannot survive scrutiny, not foresight but hype dressed up as inevitability.
Jim Royal, PhD
@jimroyalphd.bsky.social

This new #crypto product will help almost no one, because few people own enough crypto to make a home down payment anyway. It’s yet another example of crypto “solutions” that are in search of problems. Thank you, @profhilaryallen.bsky.social marketwise.com/investing/cr...

marketwise.comWhy Bitcoin Investors Should Avoid Crypto-Backed Mortgages - MarketWiseCrypto-backed mortgages can cost up to 30% more per month than traditional loans. Read our full breakdown to see how the extra yearly costs compare to potential tax savings.
Jim Royal, PhD
@jimroyalphd.bsky.social

Millions of Americans may be forced to own Elon Musk’s SpaceX stock soon after it goes public, due to recent changes in how the Nasdaq includes stocks in its Nasdaq 100 index. Sounds outrageous, doesn’t it? It gets even worse when you dig into the details, though. #SPACEX

marketwise.comSpaceX IPO Could Force Investors Into an Overvalued Stock - MarketWiseNasdaq rule changes may push millions of investors into SpaceX after its IPO. Here’s why critics say the stock could be massively overvalued.